Friday 10th May 2024
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There wasn’t much market reaction as the Bank of England kept rates on hold but said what many already knew, that they will have to cut rates in the coming months. The ECB seems wedded to the idea of a June cut, with the accounts of their last meeting out today, but there is some speculation about how quickly they will follow through. Canada’s unemployment is expected to tick higher, adding pressure for a rate cut there although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, it’s wage inflation that really counts. The UK is expected to see GDP return to positive territory today, and China’s PPI and CPI numbers are out over the weekend.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BoE talks cuts, soonish. Market unphased.

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Friday 31st May 2024
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
Assuming he stays out of prison, Donald Trump has an even chance of winning the next Presidency. What does that mean for the Fed? Trump has often argued for the need to keep interest rates low, so he’s probably not too happy with the higher for longer strategy being used to fight inflation right now. We also know he wants to challenge the independence of the central bank. But how would that work exactly?
On this Weekend Edition Mary Rosenbaum, Managing Director of the Observatory Group, an analyst firm in Washington specialising in geopolitics and macroeconomics, gives her take on what President Trump 2.0 could do to achieve his low-interest aims. Will he try and replace people in the Fed, or change the Federal Reserve Act so the government has more control over how the Fed operates, with Treasury members on the board perhaps. Or will Trump resort to bullying the Fed to see things his way?
Mary talks through the various scenarios and what the implications could be on bonds, interest rates and the dollar. Some useful insights that’s worth half an hour of your weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Weekend Edition: How could Trump change the Fed?

Friday 31st May 2024
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Inflation is taking a long time to come down, everywhere it seems. Europe reports its CPI today, but the numbers from Germany and Spain have already shown it’s taking longer than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about expectations around the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Deflator, out later today. With Fed speakers doing their best to pus expectations further back a high number here could be the ammunition needed for those expected no cuts this year, and maybe a rise. That’s an argument made by Bill Dudley on Bloomberg today. Yet there are many signs of a weakening global economy, the US included, which will give hope to those expecting cuts sooner rather than much later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will the PCE Deflator pressure the Fed?

Thursday 30th May 2024
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Australia’s monthly CPI reads are always to be treated cautiously. Nonetheless, the surprise rise in inflation did create a response on Asian markets, pushing Aussie yields higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about how weaker bond demand in US 7-year note auction added to the bond sell-off. Australia wasn’t the only inflation surprise. German CPI also rose. The ECB is wedded to a cut next week, but will they deliver the 60bp priced in for this year? In New Zealand the question for today is can the government meet all their budgetary promises without adding to the inflation worries. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation woes

Tuesday 28th May 2024
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There were two bond auctions in the US overnight – for 2 year and 5 year treasuries. Both saw weaker demand than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if investors are weary of the size of bond supply this year. Meanwhile US consumer confidence rose more than expected. Yesterday we saw weaker retail numbers than expected, but part of that can be explained away by the timing of Easter. Today there's the CPI number for Australia, although it’s not expected to influence the RBA’s sense of timing.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US bond appetite eases, consumer confidence lifts

Tuesday 28th May 2024
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It’s been a quiet 24 hours with the UK and US on holiday, with the bond and equity markets closed in each place. But Europe was open for business, although the German IFO numbers offered little to get excited about – staying in the same place as last month. One ECB speaker said after the June rate cut, the central bank will retain ‘maximum optionality’ – central bank speak for we’re not sure what happens next. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril guides us through the data, and the commentary from the ECB and the BoJ. Australia’s retail sales numbers are out this morning, along with producer prices for Japan, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report out tonight in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BoE talks cuts, soonish. Market unphased.

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