Hey everyone, quite a big topic to cover this time but I hope that this was a good introduction to one of the world's most infamous conflicts. As usual, these kinds of conflicts really make us reflect on the situation here at home, which isn't always super positive. However, this is a good reminder that even when a conflict seems like it will never end, peace will be the result at some point. Youtube version: https://youtu.be/g4bzRS6gnDo 00:00 - Introduction and Overview  01:30 - Conflict Summary  04:43 - Conflict Origins  10:45 - Lessons Learned  15:47 - IRA Split  17:46 - Takeaways  29:56 - "Societal Loading"  40:19 - Closing Thoughts

S2 Book Club: Making Sense of The Troubles

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//The Wire//2130Z June 17, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TWO MERCHANT SHIPS CONTINUE SINKING DUE TO HOUTHI TARGETING. DOMESTIC U.S. CULTURAL VIOLENCE CONTINUES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting of commercial shipping continues. Regarding the recent successful strikes in the region, the status of the struck vessels is as follows: M/V TUTOR – Adrift in the Red Sea, last known grid: 37PHR16438659. Crew abandoned ship due to uncontrolled flooding, vessel is sinking. M/V VERBENA – Adrift in the Gulf of Aden, last known grid: 38PLU49640407. Crew abandoned ship due to uncontrolled fires and flooding, vessel is sinking. AC: It is not clear as to if either the crew of either stricken vessel dropped anchor prior to abandoning ship. If so, this could present internet connectivity problems if a dropped anchor snags an undersea communications cable. As a reminder, though these details have not been verified, this exact situation possibly caused internet connectivity problems throughout the continent of Africa during the sinking of the M/V RUBYMAR under similar conditions in March. Both the TUTOR and the VERBENA are located in the vicinity of undersea communications cables, though the exact coordinates of which are a closely guarded secret. -HomeFront- USA: Multiple small arms engagements were reported around the nation over the weekend. Summaries of the most high-profile engagements are as follows: ·       West Virginia: Mass casualty incident following family reunion event in Princeton in which two family members engaged one another. 4x bystanders sustained GSWs. ·       Michigan: 9x wounded during “random” shooting at a waterpark in Rochester Hills. ·       Texas: 2x fatalities, 13x wounded during skirmish at a Juneteenth event in Round Rock. ·       Massachusetts: 7x wounded during a “spontaneous car meetup” in Essex County. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Despite all mainstream media coverage that deliberately seeks to amplify political narratives with their reporting of “active shooter incidents”, the recent small arms engagements around the nation are overwhelmingly the result of cultural violence and not deliberate terrorism. However, a continuation of such violence is expected. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

The Wire - June 17, 2024

 00:00 - Northeast Region 
04:57 - Southeast Region 
09:28 - Eastern Europe 
13:58 - Red Sea/HOA 
18:34 - Middle East 
26:38 - GhostNet News 
29:28 - Closing Thoughts 

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Intel Update: Sinking Ships, Oil, and Power Grid Attacks

//The Wire//1800Z June 14, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: HOUTHI TARGETING AGAIN INTENSIFIES IN THE RED SEA. SAUDI CROWN PRINCE CANCELS ATTENDANCE OF G7 SUMMIT. PUTIN PUBLICIZES TERMS OF POTENTIAL UKRAINE PEACE TALKS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting increases with two major incidents occurring over the past few days. Yesterday, three ASCMs successfully targeted the M/V VERBENA in the Gulf of Aden, causing severe damage. CENTCOM confirmed that at least one crew member was medically evacuated from the VERBENA due to wounds sustained during the attack. On Wednesday, Houthi forces successfully targeted the M/V TUTOR, a Greek-flagged cargo vessel (carrying coal) in the Red Sea. This attack was carried out via an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) and resulted in the TUTOR sustaining severe damage to the engine room. Per the latest reports, the vessel is experiencing severe flooding, and is reportedly not under command at this time. However, her current status remains unclear. AC: These attacks come as a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report was released yesterday confirming that maritime traffic through the Red Sea has decreased by approximately 90% since Houthi targeting began. Middle East: Tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia quietly increase following various diplomatic slights over the past few weeks. Last week, the 1974 petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. allegedly expired, with no replacement treaty scheduled to take effect. AC: While the 1974 agreement is legitimate, it’s not clear as to if a 50-year expiration date is indeed contained within the text of the agreement. Regardless of the formalization of such a specific expiration date, the opportunity not being taken to renew Saudi-US relations during such a critical time in both nation’s histories speaks volumes. Notwithstanding the formalization of such poor relations, the Saudis have been trading in oil using non-USD currencies for some time now (most famously including the recent unconfirmed claims of OPEC shifting to the Chinese Yuan). This recent diplomatic spat continues the already apparent shift in the diplomatic status between the two nations, and probably will result in more OPEC+ member states shifting away from the United States and more favorably in the direction of BRICS+. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has more directly signaled increasing dissatisfaction with the U.S. via Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) abruptly canceling his attendance of the G7 summit currently underway in Italy. AC: MBS was scheduled to be a critical attendee of the summit (as Italy seeks to improve relations with the Middle East, and court various trade agreements that have been in the works for months). However, he canceled his trip just a few hours before he was supposed to arrive in Rome, citing pressing duties to oversee the Hajj season (which is a poorly-camouflaged excuse, as his attendance is not required for this holiday season, which has likewise been scheduled for many months). This G7 summit would have been his first attendance as he increasingly takes over the duties of the Saudi empire. Europe: In a televised press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly stated the conditions for a peace proposal in Ukraine. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Though the publicity of Putin’s proposal may be surprising to some, this is probably Russia’s last warning before the summer offensive comes to fruition. Though Putin’s demands may seem unfair to the West (the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, along with dropping Ukraine’s NATO bid), Ukraine is almost certainly not in a position to offer much flexibility in negotiations (if they were to occur). Consequently, this may be the best deal Ukraine is likely to get. Despite the hubris of the 

The Wire - June 14, 2024

//The Wire//1400Z June 13, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PEACE TALKS HESITANTLY CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. CHINESE ACTIVITIES CONTINUE IN TAIWAN STRAIT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Peace talks again remain uncertain as Israel, Hamas, and the United States continue to work through the latest round of peace talks. Though an agreement has not been formally met at this time, all parties have responded positively to the latest US-led proposals. In the North, combat actions along the Israeli/Lebanese border continue to intensify on both sides. In Iraq, a significant fire is burning at the oil refinery complex in Erbil. AC: Initial unconfirmed reports suggest the fire may have been caused by a successful attack by insurgents. Far East: Chinese incursions in the Taiwan Strait continue. Overnight, 23 aircraft and 7 vessels were detected conducting operations in the vicinity of Taiwan. AC: Months ago this would have been out of the ordinary, but now that the baseline has shifted to normalize increasing numbers of aircraft incursions and naval operations this is a reminder of how a slow increase in forces over time can be operationally effective. -HomeFront- Washington: An incident at the FBI headquarters in Seattle prompted substantial police action following reports of an armed individual inside the building. The incident (possibly a mental health crisis) was resolved after some time without injury. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: A significant escalation to watch out for is the increase of Israeli combat actions in Lebanon. An increasingly likely scenario that most power-players are concerned with in the region is what a peace deal with Hamas might mean for Netanyahu, who likely seeks to do everything he can to save his government. Consequently, the question remains: If peace is achieved with Hamas, will Netanyahu shift the war to the north, continuing the fight with Hezbollah? Though the chance of this is uncertain, it remains a possibility. Especially considering that even the White House has openly and repeatedly accused Netanyahu of making poor tactical decisions so as to continue the war (and thus save his own political career). As such, if Israel decides to shift the fight to the north into Lebanon more directly, this would be yet another escalation in a time of exceptionally intense international relations. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

The Wire - June 13, 2024

//The Wire//1930Z June 12, 2024// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: RUSSIAN AND NATO EXERCISES CONTINUE IN CARIBBEAN AND BALTIC SEA RESPECTIVELY. DOMESTIC HOMELAND THREATS CONTINUE TO MOUNT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Caribbean: The previously announced Russian naval exercise continues in Cuban waters as planned. Baltic Sea: The similarly-timed NATO exercise (BALTOPS 24) continues simultaneously to the Russian activities in the Caribbean. This year’s demonstration is the largest in the history of this routine naval exercise, with 20x NATO members contributing over 50 surface vessels to take part in maneuvers throughout the Baltic Sea. -HomeFront- North Carolina: Local media reports indicate that the FBI is investigating an attack on electrical infrastructure that occurred last week. Allegedly, small arms were used to target an electrical transformer in Durham County, which resulted in a power outage in Raleigh. AC: The location where the attack took place is a remote site in the vicinity of the 3900 block of Carpenter Pond Road, well outside of the typical bounds of small arms fire that is fairly routine in the well-known hotspots in Durham and Raleigh. The general area around this site is very high-income, with a major electrical substation being located only a few hundred yards away from the alleged attack location. USA: Various mainstream media outlets have announced the arrest of at least 6x potential ISIS operatives in the United States, as part of a coordinated counterterrorism operation. All 6x suspects allegedly are from Tajikistan and obtained entry into the U.S. illegally via the southern border. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this information comes from closed-sources not made public by any media outlet, independent verification of these claims is not possible at this time. However, considering the tens of thousands of people that also exhibit terrorism concerns (along with the thousands placed on commercial flights with zero identity documents), only arresting 6 potential terrorists is merely a fraction of the total number of potential terror threats that authorities have confirmed are entering the United States daily. Analyst: S2A1 //END REPORT//

S2 Book Club: Making Sense of The Troubles

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