Narrative drives so much of the thinking today, especially when it comes to the markets.

To prevent becoming unduly influenced by it, it's important to ground ourselves in data.
We should ask first: what is the data saying?

And then we can judge whether the current prevailing narratives are consistent with it.

So, what is the current data telling us?

To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with Chris Hamilton, publisher of Econimica. If you're not familiar with the name, I'm confident you've come across a number of the prodigious amount of charts it publishes across a wide range of macro topics like the economy, demographics & the housing market.

And the one he's most worried about? Demographics.

The USA's population is set to start shrinking for the first time ever by 2035. That's just a little more than 10 years away.

Follow Chris at https://econimica.blogspot.com/

Or on Twitter at @Econimica 


WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#population #demographics #immigration 

Demographic Time Bomb: US Population On Track To Start Shrinking By 2035 | Chris Hamilton

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Three week's ago, the S&P; had fallen below 5,000 and Wall Street was worried the party in stocks might be over.
Nope. 
Stocks rebounded and, as of today, the S&P;, Dow, and (almost) NASDAQ sit at all-time highs.
Technically, it looks like the bull trend is set to continue says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, especially with $1 trillion of announced buybacks set to flow into markets through the rest of the year. Though stocks have moved so far so fast that a short-term pullback is quite likely.
Lance and I discuss what's driving the current stock surge, the signs he's monitoring to sense when it may be ending, Warren Buffett's latest warning to investors, and Lance's firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.


WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com


#investing #bullmarket #stockbuybacks

Stocks Zoom Back To All-Time Highs. Will They Stick? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

When today's guest appeared for the first time on this channel a few months ago, a start was born.

Those who hadn't yet heard of Danielle Park were impressed by both her command of the macro data and her unflinching courage to call things as she sees them.

She highlighted a number of concerns about the trajectory of the economy and markets back then -- and today we check back in with her to see whether things have improved...or gotten worse?

Well, Danielle thinks they're "worse". 

Stress cracks in the economy are now much more clearly visible.

And the markets? While they're currently being driven to new highs by "madness" (see: Gamestop), investors hoping for rate cuts may indeed get them. But history shows that stocks fall, often hard, during rate cut regimes.

So investors better be careful what they wish for. And they'd better be prepared. Too many are too long and too confident right now.

To hear how she's positioning client capital right now, watch this video.

Follow Danielle on X/Twitter at @kdaniellepark, on her daily blog at https://jugglingdynamite.com/, or at her website at https://www.venablepark.com/


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#debt #recession #interestrates 

Hey Investors: Stocks Fall When The Fed Starts Cutting Rates, Says History | Danielle Park

Many of the recent housing analysts I've talked with, like in last week's excellent interview with mortgage expert Melody Wright, see tougher times ahead for the real estate market.
So for further context, I thought it would be helpful to get a true "boots on the ground" view from one of America's more successful property investors.
What is he seeing across the thousands of property units in his portfolio?
Is he buying, selling, or holding steady given current market conditions?
And where does he see the housing market headed from here?
For answers, we turn to Ken McElroy, founder and CEO of real estate investment and property management firm MC Companies.


WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com


#realestateinvesting #housingmarket #homeprices 

Big Money Buying Up Our Homes Is "Never Going To Stop" | Ken McElroy

It feels like a tale of two economies right now.
If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs.
But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story.
One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and households are increasingly forced to turn to expensive credit cards to fund living essentials.
Which of these is more accurate?
And are things likely to get better or worse from here?
For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analysis and proprietor of MacroMavens.com
Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/


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#inflation #deflation #recession 

Stephanie Pomboy: The "Spent Up & Lent Up" Consumer Is Tapped Out

The Dow just had its best week of 2024.
And the S&P; remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.
As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.
It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two. 
Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.
Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.


WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com


#investing #stocks #jobsreport 


Demographic Time Bomb: US Population On Track To Start Shrinking By 2035 | Chris Hamilton

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