07.20.2022 - By Horowitz and Dvorak
Good news! Powell and Clarida cleared of any wrongdoing. That was a close one!
Markets starting to rethink the doom and gloom? Earnings season colliding with rate hike worries.
Mystery Chart - impressive run.
Uber - terrible - not going to change their ways.
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Warm Up
- Earnings season begins this week
- Mystery Chart - It is UP this year!
- President Biden - No Headway during Saudi Trip
- Saying goodbye to Ivana Trump
- Heat Waves - How is your weather?
Market Update
- Reversal Alert - 0.75% < 1.00% new base and markets get excited
--- If you think its a rally but it's not - It's Chiffon? (Commercial from the 70's)
---- Its not nice to fool mother nature
- Bank Earnings - mixed bag. Hard to interpret due to loan loss provisions
- Short Squeeze / rebalance ahead of earnings
- UBER - disgusting practices
- China is easing some rules - money available
- How much more badder does the news have to get?
- Yield Curve very inverted..... 2 year higher than 30 year...
- BofA Global Fund Manager Survey revealed the lowest equity allocation since the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy and the highest cash levels since 2001.
Announcing a new Closest to the Pin!
Starting with Peak Pessimism
- Investors slashed their exposure to risk assets to levels not seen even during the global financial crisis in a sign of full capitulation amid a “dire” economic outlook, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey.
- A net 58% of fund managers said they’re taking lower than normal risks, a record that surpassed the survey’s global financial crisis levels.
- Global growth and profit expectations sank to an all-time low, while recession expectations were at their highest since the pandemic-fueled slowdown in May 2020
- C A P I T U L A T I O N -- - They are saying...
Oil (2)
- Oil prices near $96 $94 $99 - Bounced off support and USD weakens
Coinage
- Big weekend for coins
- Bitcoin. ETH and others moving, 10, 20+%
--- Story over weekend that Coinbase shutting down affiliate programs
---- Wild speculation that COIN could be next to be under financial pressure
----- Short Squeeze getting out of positions - why the weekend rally?
Bank Earnings
- No use in trying to look at headline beats/misses
- Loan loss provisions down big then up big - over 1 year means that comparisons all screwed up
- Generally major banks looking pretty good still - NIM good and revenues looking healthy
- Concerns over economic slowdown and bad debt - co
- Could be they overshot to downside
- Goldman, Morgan look good - not much bad to say right now.
Builder Confidence
- Another story all together
- We know from Redfin - prices coming down, existing homes flooding markets, sells getting worried
- July NAHB Housing Market Index 55vs. 66 Briefing.com consensus; prior 67
- Builders confidence - see below - needs some discussion
NAHB
Mystery Chart
- This stock is up this year
- Well known, in DJIA
- TECH!
- Laggard for years...
- Earnings out last night - stock not doing so good
Mystery Chart
More Stocks...
- Single Stock ETF
- Interesting concept - but not clear who this benefits.
- Fees added to stocks that can be bought at low cost
- Probably less volume and liquidity than the stock itself
Netflix
- After several quarters of horrible performance (company and stock) company about to report July 19
- Could there be a gold mine in the advertising side? - Teamed up with Microsoft
- SIDEBAR: Heard someone talking about team ups/projects with MSFT - WHY? Because they are neutral and can be trusted as partner when building. (When did that happen?)