DHUnplugged #625: Dvorak’s Prophesy

Dvorak's prediction is looking very prescient.

Markets cannot get a break - all news is bad news.

More boneheaded moves by governments. Need to get some adults in charge here...

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- Market Rally Hard – then Fade Hard

- Nobel Prized awarded!

- Inverse Cramer ETF Filed

- IMF Poops on and Possible Party

- Scare tactics? The Wealth Advisor Headlines

Market Update

- Jamie Dimon – Not Bullish

- DJIA hit 29,010 low on Monday

- Dvorak's Prophesy - UK in Distress

- Nasty action - no reprieve, no good news

- NASDAQ closes at 2 year low (taking out most of pandemic move

Remember we talking last episode about "breaking things"

- It looked as though there was a significant breakdown of confidence (especially in the UK)

--- Dvorak Prophecy comes true

- Bond market BROKE in UK - poor leadership and lack of plan

- US and around the world, central bankers trying to break inflation (through recession)

Big Week

- Economics: PPI, CPI, FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, UMICH (WOW!)

- PPI expected to come in at 0.3% MoM, CPI 0.2%  MoM

- CORE PPI expected 0.4%, CORE CPI 0.5%

-- EARNINGS: BANKS start the earnings season (JPM Citi)

IMF

- The International Monetary Fund predicts global growth will slow to 2.7% next year, 0.2 percentage points lower than its July forecast, and anticipates 2023 will feel like a recession for millions around the world.

- "The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession," the report said, echoing warnings from the United Nations, the World Bank and many global CEOs.

- More than a third of the global economy will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union and China — will continue to slow, the report said.

- Not particularly encouraging....

NOBEL

- Ben Bernanke won this year's Nobel Economics Prize on Monday for laying the foundation of how the world now manages global crises like the recent pandemic or the Great Recession of 2008

- Student of the Depression and Recessions of the Past

- BUT, Did not see anything of concern during 2006, 2007, 2008 as the financial system was starting to implode

- Maybe could have been worse ????

Time for Selling (Tax Loss)

- Into the end of the year –  time to start thinking about  Tax Loss harvesting

- That’s the term for selling a stock at a loss and using that to offset gains elsewhere in one’s portfolio.

- ** Mutual Funds are going to be looking for losses and may be selling as Oct 31 is often associated with incentive under TRA 1986

Twitter Deal

- On, Off, On, Off, On again

- Musk now says he wants to buy at original price of $54.20

- Banks may face stiff losses

- Lenders that also include Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. committed to provide $13 billion of debt financing for the deal. Their losses would amount to $500 million or more if the debt were to be sold now, according to Bloomberg calculations.

--- Why did he decide to go through with deal? Wanted out of deposition?

More Musk – Endless Musk

- Twitter to become Super-App?

- On Tuesday, Musk tweeted that buying Twitter is an "accelerant to creating X, the everything app."

- Super apps is a term to describe an app that often acts as a one-stop shop for all your mobile needs. For example, you might order a taxi or food via the app and at the same time do payments and messaging. This eliminates the need to have multiple apps for different functions.

Defense Stocks

- A basket of five— Northrop Grumman (ticker: NOC), Lockheed Martin (LMT),