DHUnplugged #649: Free Toasters?

Banks need some inflows - giving away prizes for deposits.

Earnings season is about to begin - looking for a significant downside for growth.

Yields ticking lower as recession fears bump inflation worries.

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Warm Up

- Easter and holiday season coming to an end...

- A NEW Closest to The Pin Announcement

- Bond yields way down - what does that mean?

- Free Toasters Making a comeback

- Gold, metals, alts, COINS!

Market Update

- Falling Yields - may be a bit much

- Employment report - mixed bag

- Earnings season starts this week - Big Banks

- Apple news - PC Demand

DONATIONS - April Donations - Bring May Flowers

Earnings Season Prep

- Going to be some bad guidance... If actions by companies any guide

- Example - Google letter about 2008 and getting in advance so they can say - we are ahead of this...

- Banks - what good can they say? Or maybe at worst levels?

-  S&P 500 Estimates - looking for -7% YoY growth for earnings

How Bad? Tech bad...

- Apple Mac shipments fell 40.5% in the first quarter of 2023, compared with the same time the prior year, market intelligence provider IDC said.

--- Apple’s worldwide PC market share dropped between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, from 8.6% to 7.2%, according to IDC data.

- All five of the largest computer makers — Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo — saw double-digit drops in first-quarter shipments, reflecting weaker demand and persistent inventory woes. But Apple’s decline was the biggest of the bunch.

- Taiwan Semi - slowing production as demand is not there

Employment Report

- March nonfarm payrolls 236K vs consensus 239K; prior revised to 326K from 311K

- March unemployment rate 3.5% vs consensus 3.6%; prior 3.6%

- March avg. hourly earnings 0.3% vs.consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%

- March avg. workweek 34.4 hours vs consensus 34.5; prior 34.5

- 25% of the employment gains were in services (restaurants, bars and hotels)

Home Price Outlook

- Moody's expects 98% of major markets to post a home price decline over the coming year.

- According to Zillow, tight supply will make it hard for home prices to fall much heading forward.

- Through the first two months of 2023, the biggest home price drops were found in markets like Austin (down 2.5% since December), Boise (down another 2.4%), Las Vegas (down another 2.4%), Phoenix (down another 2.2%), and San Jose (down another 2.1%).

- Western US home values seem the most detached from fundamentals according to reports.

Bond Yields

- Dropped due to banking crisis

- Even with FED pressing on - still lower (3.4% on 10-year)|

- Heavy Inversion

- Recession now the play versus inflation worries

Sky Is Falling

- Starlink seems to have a problem

- Satellites are falling out of orbit and coming back dosn to earth (something Elon will never do)

- Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell tracks SpaceX's satellite activity, and said that at present "at least 14" of the company's devices were "on their way down".

- Reports show that the satellite in question likely burned up as it attempted to reenter the Earth's atmosphere, meaning traces of it will be incredibly hard to find.

AS the Sky is Falling ...

- Investors snapping up alternatives

- Gold >$2,000

- Silver in rally mode

- Bitcoin > $30,000 (but 1 bitcoin is still 1 bitcoin

- Ether > $1,900

Meanwhile - Fed is full CYA mode

- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that financial system troubles that drove the central bank to provide large amounts of credit to banks is not collateral damage from the Fed’s aggressive effort to lower inflation.