DHUnplugged #679: Rally Santa Rally!

Heading toward the barn - traders looking for Santa to come though for December

November was a pretty spectacular month for stocks...

Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving.

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Warm Up

- Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023

- Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited

- More strikes on  the horizon

- Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise|

- Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days

- A Limerick

Market Update

- Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices

- AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day !

- -  VIX hits low since the pandemic

-  KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters

- Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing

- OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday...

- Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again....

Following:

- Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information

- "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns."

Word Watch

- Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas

- "ELEVATED"

- Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds"

- Pinky up!

December - Traders and Investors heading for home....

- Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth....

- So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum

- USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks  and commods

VIX

- FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today.

- This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat

- KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning)

- S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH)

----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line)

Markets Love it!

- Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really high

Black Friday Update

- Cut and paste every year

- US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics  (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation)

- Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season.

- Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year.

- Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?)

--- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5%  (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and  many looking for bargains

- E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said.

Bank Closures  (JCD)

- Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years.

- Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.