DHUnplugged #623: Rate Hysteria

Auntie Em! It's a twister! Rate hikes that is - everyone is getting hysterical.

FedEx puts a crimp in the outlook.

Stranger Danger - new Monkeypox advice in China

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Warm Up

- So Sorry - The Killers concert update

- Biden making some big announcements

- Announcing the winner of the CTP for Bed bath and Beyond

- Stranger Danger

- FedEx Warning shakes markets

- New sport? Nose Biting?

---- Has done something no one has ever done before!

Market Update

- Big day coming - Fed Rate Decision

- UGLY week - CPI (Inflation) ruined the party

--- 5.5% DOWN for NASDAQ last Tuesday. Markets off big last week

- Oil dropping on concerns that China COVID -ZERO and global slowdown

- Goldman Cutting US Growth Forecast

RATE HYSTERIA!

- 2PM, 2:30PM - Wednesday

- 20% probability of 1% and 100% of 75%|

- 10Yr spiked again - now over the top of June peak

- - Seems that markets and news hysterical - yet inflation peaking.....

- If any slight layoff by Powell , markets going to gush higher (at least temporarily)

- - Seems like 0.75% priced in - so not sure where we are going from here (pundits again looking for downside after they switched recently)

Rate Update

- High grade money markets >2%

- 2 year muni bond >2.5%

- 12 month treasury >4%

- 1 year CD > 2.7%

JCD

- FYI - DJIA @ 30,706

President Biden - Declaration!

- The Pandemic Is Over!

--- "We still have a problem with COVID. We're still doing a lotta work on it. But the pandemic is over. If you notice, no one's wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape. And so I think it's changing."

- Doesn't the WHO have the responsibility of declaring?

Biden Again -

- Inflation just moved up an inch in the last reading

- Trying his best to tamp down the concerns out there

- Biden team out if force on the idea that gas and oil prices are down big - talking it up

- Oil and gas are all about China - not US

Biden - So happy - Gas prices plummeting

Gas Prices

Maybe not so Happy

- US household net worth declined in the second quarter by the most on record as aggressive action by the Fed to tame rapid inflation sent stocks plunging

MonekeyPox Back in the News

- Seems that spread in Europe is slowing down significantly

- China gets first case and now they are saying: Don't touch foreigners to reduce monkeypox risk

- "To prevent possible monkeypox infection and as part of our healthy lifestyle, it is recommended that 1) you do not have direct skin-to-skin contact with foreigners," Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention posted on his official Weibo page on Saturday.

- 2) Wu also called for people to avoid such contact with people who have been abroad within the past three weeks as well as all "strangers", as he cautioned vigilance. (STRANGER DANGER)

What is Up ? FedEx Warning

- FedEx on Thursday withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments.

- "Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S.," CEO Raj Subramaniam said in the release. "While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts."

- Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expected   -  - - --   Revenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expected

- Prompted in interview with Cramer: Is the economy headed for Worldwide recession???

------- “I think so,” Subramaniam said. “These numbers, they don’t portend well.” “We are a reflection of everybody else’s business,