DHUnplugged #612: Script Flipping

Big slowdown in prices of base metals and ags. Not inflationary - more like deflationary.

An update on MonkeyPox, China, Oil and John McAfee.

The ever exciting G7 meeting - what actually got done anyway?

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Warm Up

- Script Flipping (Seems weekly)

- Notice a change in pricing? (Charts)

- Oil prices down a bit - no change at the pump

- 10Yr moves down after Fed rate decision - Still in a range

- Announcing the winner of the latest CTP - NIO

Market Update

- Down UP 5-8% last week (US Markets with a SHORT WEEK)

- Coming into the end of the quarter - we know what happens

- So many bears right now - hard to short into all of this negativity

- Commods, ags, base metals - rolling over hard (oil too)

- Bond Auction - not so good. International investors stepping back

- Russell Re-balance - Major Moves last week - one wild surprise - we have the chart

NEWS:

- The World Health Organization on Saturday declined to declare the unprecedented monkeypox outbreak that has spread around the world a public health emergency as of now.

- FWIW they also dragged their feet for months on COVID

Meanwhile

- Macau launched a third round of mandatory COVID-19 testing for its more than 600,000 residents on Monday.

- Casinos, while mostly deserted, are allowed to stay open, the city's government said, in a move to protect local jobs.

--- How does this make sense?

And China...

- Reopening schools in Bejing, Declating VICTORY!

- Meanwhile, Shanghai reported no new local cases - both symptomatic and asymptomatic - for June 24, the first time the Chinese economic hub had done so since Feb. 23

Russia - Debt Default

- Russia defaulted on its international bonds for the first time in more than a century

- The Kremlin, which has the money to make payments thanks to oil and gas revenues, swiftly rejected the claims, and has accused the West of driving it into an artificial default

- Russia's efforts to avoid what would be its first major default on international bonds since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago hit a roadblock in late May when the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) effectively blocked Moscow from making payments

- What does this mean?

WEIRD REACTION?

- Russia's ruble hit 52.3 to the dollar last Wednesday, an increase of roughly 1.3% on the previous day and its strongest level since May 2015.

- The ruble has actually gotten so strong that Russia's central bank is actively taking measures to try to weaken it, fearing that this will make their exports less competitive.

- The reasons are, to put it simply: strikingly high energy prices, capital controls and sanctions themselves.

G7 Meet-up

- Smile and back slapping

- Global hunger on the agenda, climate change

- China - ganging up against

- Commitment to Ukraine - whatever they need.

- The G7 partners are set to agree to ban imports of gold from Russia, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. A German government source later said that leaders were having "really constructive" conversations on a possible price cap on Russian oil imports.

Phew...

- Ratings agency Moody's on Friday affirmed United States' rating at "Aaa", citing the country's emergence from the pandemic shock with "exceptional" economic strength.

- "Moody's expects the US economy and the sovereign's credit profile to remain resilient to shocks, including the current challenges to the global economy from high and persistent inflation, tightening financial conditions, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine," the ratings agency said in a statement.

- It maintained United States' outlook at stable.