DHUnplugged #599: Spiking, Ripping and Raging

One of the best week's since....

Markets continue in rally/rip mode as "hope" that Ukraine beats Russia.

China stimulus hopes propel tech shares to the moon

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Warm Up

- Massive Rally - Just to Suck you back in to this Crapfest (defined last show)

--- Big winners were the biggest losers over the latter part of last week

---- GS Short basket flew - 20%, Chinese Stocks > 35% last week

- Usually see these kinds of moves - ONLY in Bear market - Need to be picky about positions...Opps!

- The nature of bear markets - big swings with VIX above 25!

- Russia - COUP???

- LIMIRICKS!

Market Update

- Get em' - Oversold, pent up, rally after Powell's 0.25% hike

- Fast Forward and he is hawkish again - saying 0.50% at any meeting is possible

- Big moves for Boeing - Plane down in China

WHAT A WEEK!

- Market's "V" again off of the hope that Jay Powell and Friends will take it easy on the  rate hikes.

- 0.25% and every meeting this year is live.

- During press conference he seemed to put many at ease, but was still very hawkish.

- He said - He didn't see an elevated chance of a recession next year (sparked markets instantly higher)

- Best week for over 2-years, markets in green for MTD (HUGE MOVE on individual names)

- China stocks rocket! KWEB up 35% for the week (index of Chinese tech names)

THREE NUMBERS TO RUIN YOUR DAY:

- $110 (oil)

- 2.30 (10 Yr)

- 0.38 (2/10 spread)

2/10 Spread

Yield Curve Flattening

And Then -

- Rates - Spike - - current 10 yr > 2.2%, Oil moving up again

- Inflation in Germany - PPI  > 25% YoY

- War still raging

- Food issues starting, more supply chain issues .....

- So what is next catalyst for markets (Earnings?)

- EU considering Russian Oil Embargo (Self - mutilation)

Rates - More

- St. Louis Fed's Bullard says the central bank should raise rates above 3% this year

- As the lone dissenter at this week's Fed meeting, Bullard said in a statement that he would like to see the central bank's benchmark interest rate boosted above 3% from the near-0% level where it had stood.

- Bullard was the only FOMC member to vote against the move, stating that he would have preferred a rate hike of 0.5 percentage point, or 50 basis points. He added that the Fed also should have started the process of reducing the nearly $9 trillion in bond holdings it has accumulated over the past 14 years.

More to Ruin your Week

- National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at press conference says President Biden and EU leaders will decide Thursday what they should do if Russia uses a nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon in Ukraine

- Good News: A Kremlin spokesperson apparently out stating Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its very existence were threatened

- 2 comments on Nukes that are not needed.

Russian Coup?

- A group of Russian elites are allegedly conspiring to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin and “restore economic ties” with the West, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

- Who is Putin's food taster?

- Crazy info-wars going on....

Where to?

- China says Taiwan, which it views as a breakaway province to be brought back to the fold, by force if necessary, is the most sensitive and important issue in its relations with the United States.

- "Some individuals in the United States are sending the wrong signals to pro-independence forces in Taiwan, and that's very dangerous," Xi told Biden on a video call.

- If the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it will have a subversive impact on the relationship between the two countries."

China Plane - All Lost

- China Eastern Airlines will ground all Boeing (BA) 737-800 jets as some...