DHUnplugged 600: Upside The Head

Markets getting a kick out of Biden's lean in and walk back.

Will Smith - what was that?

Yields invert - 10Year hits 2.5%

Oil crumbles on the China lockdowns - everything is backasswards.

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Warm Up

- Strong Finish for the month

- Biden leans in and walks back

- North Korea stirring the pot

- China - more lockdowns (Supply chain going to break)

- LIMERICKS!

- Announcing the Winner of the CTP for URA

Market Update

- Yields - inversion across most of curve

- Shrugging all hots off like Chris Rock - What a pro... (End of stand up)

- Crude oil drops 7% on China Shanghai lock-down news

- Apple says big drop in output needed - stock barely budges (ends higher on  the news)

- Lots of talk about taxing unrealized gains as well as moves against buybacks

- Strong month - markets up > 3% (Looks like window dressing and short unravel)

---*** KRI HITS +6 this morning - OVERHEAT

-- 2/10 invert for a minute today (Cease Fire = higher chance of Fed rate hike)

KRI Update

- Was +6 this morning (Closed at +5)

- The overall market, as measured by the KRI algorithm, is nearing a critical level of being overheated. The potential for a key reversal is high over the next few days.

- Caution with respect to long side is warranted. Evaluate long positions, tighten stops and consider reducing overall long exposure or hedge out risk in the near-term.

Will Smith - Real or Fake?

Markets Moving on this?

- Russia is prepared to allow Ukraine join EU as part of ceasefire talks as long as it doesn't join NATO

- Something off with markets - rallying like cease fire will fix all... But:

- - Quicker rate hikes more likely

--- No change in impact from oil prices

Shanghai Lockdown

- Shanghai's city government said on Sunday all firms and factories would suspend manufacturing or have people work remotely in a two-stage lockdown over nine days, after the city reported a new daily record for asymptomatic COVID-19 infections

- Oil Dropped big time on this ans some softening

- Sapping fuel demand further, public transport, including ride-hailing services, will also be suspended during the lockdown.

Fighting Words

- U.S. President Joe Biden said that Russia's leader Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power" in Poland over the weekend

- Biden's comments on Saturday, including a statement earlier in the day calling Putin a "butcher"

- Frantic walk back after the comment - but it seems that most buying the twist of what was said.

M&A News

- HP Inc said on Monday it would buy audio and video products maker Poly (aka Plantronics) for $1.7 billion in cash, a move that would help it take advantage of the electronic products boom sparked by hybrid working.

- The deal offers $40 for each share of Poly, a premium of about 53% to the company's last closing price.

Come on...

- Huawei Technologies on Monday reported asset sale gains helped lift profit 76% in 2021, turning in its first set of results under Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou since she returned to China last year after nearly three years' detention in Canada.

- In its biggest-ever annual gain, net profit rose to 113.7 billion yuan ($17.8 billion), the smartphone and computer giant said.

- Revenue skidded 29% to 636.8 billion yuan, in line with Huawei's previous forecast in December

---- Asset gains are legit, but need to be stripped out (Bad reporting)

Meanwhile

- Apple reportedly cutting production on Airpods and some iPhones - demand issues

- Apple is preparing a hardware subscription service for iPhones that could launch as soon as the end of this year, Bloomberg reported Thursday.