Friday 17th May 2024
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Even though equities fell form their record highs of yesterday, that wasn’t until after the Dow passed the 40k mark for the first time ever. JBWere’s Sally Auld is surprised at the confidence in US equity markets, particularly as data is showing more signs of softness and Fed speakers continue to talk about waiting longer for cuts. JPMorgan’s James Dimon also expressed concerns about the inflationary impact of the rising US deficit. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers, which saw the unemployment rate rise more than expected.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Exuberance sees Dow pass 40k mark

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Tuesday 11th June 2024
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Non-farm payrolls came in a lot higher than expected in the US on Friday. Not only were there more people in jobs, but wages are also rising faster than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent how uncomfortable this will be for the Fed and what it’s done to market expectations There will be a lot of focus on the FOMC meeting this week, with the dot plot telling us when the Fed thinks we’ll see rate cuts. Whilst the ECB has been working hard to reel back expectations for rate cuts in Europe, President Macron has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by calling a snap election in France, in response to a lurch right in the weekend European Parliamentary elections. It’s not going to be a dull week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US jobs hot, Macron snaps

Friday 7th June 2024
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On 18th June Daniel Mookhey, the NSW Treasurer, presents his second budget to the state parliament. This week he talks to Phil about the challenges he faces, starting with house prices. They continue to rise, despite repeated efforts by governments over the years to bring them under control. How much of it is down to supply and what can the government do to increase it?  Infrastructure building is part of the solution, says Mookhey. But that costs money and, if the NSW government increases spending couldn’t it add to the inflation problem? Is that something he worries about?  In this half hour discussion Phil talks to the Treasurer about how he balances government spending against the drive to build the foundations for future growth, whilst facing the challenges of a less egalitarian society and a hefty state debt. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Weekend Edition: Mookhey’s Balancing Act in Australia’s Most Unaffordable State

Friday 7th June 2024
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The ECB cut interest rates as expected, but there’s no clear indication of when the next cut will come. NAB’s Gavin Friend says staff forecasts have pushed inflation higher. Hence, a hawkish cut. So much so, you wonder whether they would have carried through if it hadn’t been so clearly signalled beforehand. Now the focus is on the US labour market and what it means for the Fed. The ADP jobs number came in soft earlier in the week and the jobless claims number rose last night, with a softer read is expected tonight. Just as important ifs the question of wages. Q1 labour costs were downgraded yesterday, so will the fall carry through to the May number tonight? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

ECB’s Hawkish Cut. Hardly a Surprise.

Thursday 6th June 2024
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US equities hit new highs today and bond yields continued to fall. The Bank of Canada cut rates overnight with indications there will be more to follow. They pipped the ECB to the post, with their cut expected later today. Equities and bonds have been buoyed by positive sentiment, helped by a surprisingly strong ISM Services number for the US, after a weaker ADP jobs report – combined they add to the case for cuts from the Fed. NABs Ken Crompton joins Phil today to talk through all this central bank action, as well as digging into yesterday’s Australian GDP data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Let the easing begin

Wednesday 5th June 2024
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Bond markets continue their rally, with yields down again this morning. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s in part down to the JOLTS data in the US overnight, which showed job openings slowing. That’s pushed forward expectations for Fed rate cuts slightly. He also points to the election result in India, which saw the PM lose his majority, which could impact future growth and, therefore, energy demand. We’ve seen commodity prices coming down again, hitting the Aussie dollar. Today we get Australia’s GDP for Q1. What should we expect? And could the bank of Canada be the first G7 central bank to cut rates in this cycle? We’ll find out later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Exuberance sees Dow pass 40k mark

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