It is critical to understand what is happening in China first of all. The country is suffering from a confluence of longer-term structural imbalances butting up against near-term strategies ostensibly aimed at minimizing the fallout. The risks are complex though in broad terms pretty easy to sketch out. They include potential impacts on global liquidity, one of the most misunderstood topics in finance.  If are interested in Alf’s Macro Investment Fund, drop him an email for information at this address: fund@themacrocompass.com  Alf’s Course: TheMacroCompass.substack.com  Other Courses: https://themacrocompass.org/courses/ Eurodollar University's conversations w/Alfonso Peccatiello https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

How Bank Reserves Affect Liquidity (Macro Alf)

Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.

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After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg A Really Bad Sign for Commercial Real Estate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-23/bloomberg-evening-briefing-a-really-bad-sign-for-commercial-real-estate Bloomberg Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Turns to Survival Mode as Real Estate Pain Lingers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/starwood-reit-sets-drastic-redemption-limits-on-liquidity-crunch Bloomberg Lenders Race to Buy Back Delinquent Multifamily Mortgage Loans
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/jpmorgan-says-commercial-real-estate-clo-loan-buyouts-are-set-to-reach-a-record Fitch Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Office
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024 https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Oh Sh*t, Commercial Real Estate CLO Loans Are Collapsing

On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices?  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meetings
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2363 Reuters Yellen wants G7 'wall of opposition' to China's excess industrial capacity
https://www.reuters.com/markets/yellen-says-g7-discuss-responses-chinas-excess-industrial-capacity-2024-05-23/ Treasury Secretary Yellen on PBS
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-yellen-on-why-biden-is-targeting-chinese-manufacturing-with-new-tariffs https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's Latest Move Has Governments Freaking Out

The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Target Corp First Quarter Earnings
https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-corporation-reports-first-quarter-earnings Target Corp Press Release Lowering Prices
https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-will-help-consumers-save-big-by-lowering-prices-on-5,000-frequently-shopped-items CNBC Target shares tumble 10% as consumers buy fewer groceries and home goods
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-tgt-q1-2024-earnings.html BLS New Tenant Rent Index
https://www.bls.gov/pir/new-tenant-rent.htm https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Target Just Confirmed EVERYTHING

There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s). Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Boston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Living
https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/ledger/winter2004/livstand.pdf CDC Drug Overdose Deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db491.htm CDC Birth Stats
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm CDC Birth Rates
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/Brth.pdf Christopher Waller Little by Little, Progress Seems to be Resuming.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240521a.htm https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Standard of Living Decline in America is Accelerating (here’s why)

Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Apple Second Quarter Earnings
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/ CNBC Apple announces largest-ever $110 billion share buyback as iPhone sales drop 10%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/apple-aapl-earnings-report-q2-2024.htm CNBC Red Lobster files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/red-lobster-bankruptcy.html CNBC Home Depot misses on revenue, as high interest rates hurt sales
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/home-depot-hd-q1-2024-earnings-.html CNBC Are consumers pulling back on spending? It depends on which CEO you ask
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/consumer-pullback-ceos.html Bloomberg What Is Buy Now, Pay Later? How It Works and the Hidden Risks You Should Know
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/what-is-buy-now-pay-later-how-bnpl-plans-work Bloomberg Treat Buy Now, Pay Later Loans Like Real Debt
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-14/treat-klarna-affirm-buy-now-pay-later-loans-like-real-debt Bloomberg Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/-buy-now-pay-later-has-americans-racking-up-phantom-debt Flex
https://help.getflex.com/hc/en-us/sections/360004885954-Get-Started https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

How Bank Reserves Affect Liquidity (Macro Alf)

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