Making Smarter Decisions and Knowing When to Walk Away with Annie Duke

#81: Professional decision-maker, Annie Duke, joins Chris to talk about making better decisions. They discuss why learning the difference between luck and the quality of decisions is so important and how that can improve your life and your career, ways to improve your quitting skills, and what forces work against good quitting behavior. They also cover why so many people struggle with the decision to walk away, how to use kill criteria to determine when to quit a project, a job, or some other endeavor, and a lot more.

Annie Duke (@AnnieDuke) is a best-selling author and professional decision strategist. Her 2018 bestseller, Thinking in Bets, has helped countless people make better decisions, and her latest book is Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.

Full show notes at: https://allthehacks.com/decision-making-annie-duke

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Resources Mentioned

Connect with Annie Duke: Website | Twitter

Annie Duke’s Resources:

Books:

Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

All the Hacks Podcast: FOMO, FOBO and How To Make Great Decisions with Patrick McGinnis

Resources Mentioned: 

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Into Thin Air: A Personal Account of the Mt. Everest Disaster

Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance

Astro Teller on Moonshots for Alphabet's X (Monkeys and pedestals 25:08)

Knowns vs Unknowns — Are you building a successful company or just typing?

Full Show Notes

(1:20) Luck vs. Decision Quality: Learning the Difference

(5:44) Improving Hiring Decisions and Positive Outcomes

(9:11) Understanding and Calculating Base Rate

(13:29) Enhancing Decision Information with Independent Viewpoints

(21:08) Encouraging Honest Opinions and Feedback

(28:00) Shifting Mindset from Sunk Cost Fallacy

(30:12) Advanced Planning, Kill Criteria, Stop-Loss Orders

(32:02) Example of Kill Criteria

(33:24) Finding a Qualified Quitting Coach

(41:49) Viewing Life as Bets and Making Things Explicit

(47:35) Side-Effects of Explicit Decision-Making

(51:41) Handling Emotional Angst in Decisions

(54:41) Menu Decision Strategy

(58:31) The Challenge of Quitting Decisions

(1:04:55) Astro Teller's Mental Model: Monkeys and Pedestals

(1:07:01) Identifying Known Unknowns

(1:07:57) Connect with Annie Duke Online

Connect with All the Hacks

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