
Tom welcomes back Mark Magarian, Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments. They discuss the yield curve inversion and its historical track record of eventually un-inverting. He expressed optimism for gold and investing in gold-mining companies, citing their current low valuations and potential for significant returns.



He emphasized the importance of timing and finding asymmetric bets in investments, as well as doing thorough research on companies trading at a discount to intrinsic value.



Mark also discussed the caution needed when investing in Greenfield projects and the importance of free cashflow and profitability in investments.



He shared his bullish view on energy, particularly oil and gas, and stressed the importance of cashflow as the ultimate king in investing. Additionally, he advised staying agnostic in investment decisions and not being swayed by biases or hype in certain sectors. Mark recommended finding a competent financial advisor for investment advice.



Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Bond Inversion & Markets5:33 - Signals & Un-inversions10:24 - Miners & Opportunity11:40 - Timing & The Markets16:23 - Focus & Approach19:00 - Portfolio Positioning21:05 - Gold & Silver22:47 - Gold Price Vs. Miners26:02 - Finding Good Assets30:17 - Producing Assets & Risks34:48 - Conviction & Methodology37:12 - Energy & Other Sectors42:18 - Bias & Finding Value47:23 - Wrap Up



Talking Points from this Episode




* Research companies to identify investment opportunities with asymmetric upside potential and minimal downside risk.



* He stresses the importance of separating macro views from the actual results while investing.



* Look for assets that can have controlled cash flow, and assess if markets are pricing them correctly.



* Find a competent financial advisor to help with investments, especially when managing large sums of money.




Guest Links:Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-magarian-96a6b624/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Maggers78



Mark Magarian is Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments LLC. Previously, he was a Vice President and Portfolio Manager for Wells Fargo Advisors. He has been in the business for over twenty years. The first half of his career was spent working with hedge funds, and John Paulson was one of his biggest clients. Career Highlights include working for Deutsche Bank in London as a Vice President and being part of the investment team at Gruss & Co.



Since moving to the United States twelve years ago, he became a portfolio manager and has focused on a hard asset strategy that has, at its core, a focus on precious metals.



He is a value investor at heart, but one with a macro perspective for our position in the market cycle. Specialties include managing a tactical growth portfolio and creating customized solutions.

Mark Magarian: Bonds Are Presenting an Asymmetric Setup For Gold to Outperform

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Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Lee, a seasoned CFA with two decades in the mining industry, to discuss economic trends and his predictions since their last conversation in September 2022. Reflecting on past discussions, they touch upon various topics including the irrationality of silver markets, U.S. dollar’s rise, and the surprising impact of geopolitics on commodities like oil.
John shares his perspective on current economic issues such as persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and an inverted yield curve. He admits some errors in earlier predictions but maintains a thoughtful analysis of macroeconomic trends. John believes that large financial institutions and tech companies have significant influence on markets and are not swayed by interest rate hikes in the same way as ordinary investors.
John discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and the potential motivations behind its actions, questioning whether its primary goal is to control inflation or facilitate asset accumulation for the powerful elite. He also delves into the impact of demographics on commodities and the economy. Despite less consumer demand due to underreported population numbers in some countries like China, John remains bullish on investment demand for metals like gold.
John shares his concerns about the upcoming election and its potential market impact, believing that central banks and cartels have more control over market movements than politicians. He also advises preparing for an exit strategy with diversified assets in various currencies, metals, and geographic regions. John encourages listeners to explore his work on Twitter under the username ‘John Lee Silver Elephant’ for insights on gold, silver, and interest rates. Currently, he recommends waiting for further dollar weakness before making significant purchases of these metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introductions0:40 – Changes & Surprises6:02 – Rate Hikes & No Crash?12:12 – Thoughts on the Fed15:53 – Yield Curve Inversion20:52 – The Dollar & Cent. Banks23:45 – Demographics & Commodities29:16 – China & Economic Reporting33:26 – Silver/Gold Ratio & Uses38:10 – Golds Role & Public47:27 – Election Uncertainties50:42 – Conflict Risks & Fragility58:46 – Diversification & Plan B1:05:38 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode

Central banks and large entities manipulate markets, minimizing impact of interest rate hikes on ordinary investors.
How demographics and geopolitical factors can influence commodity demand and prices.
Why gold remains a valuable long-term investment due to increasing central bank concerns and potential digital currency adoption.

Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/johnlee25893955Website: https://www.silverelef.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-lee-baa93422/
John Lee, CFA, is CEO and President of Silver Elephant Mining. Mr. Lee specializes in mining M&A; and has raised over $150 million through the TSX and TSX Venture Exchange for junior companies since 2009. Lee identified, negotiated and financed Lynn Lake nickel acquisition in 2009, Ulaan Ovoo coal in 2010, Wellgreen nickel-pgm in 2011, Shakespeare nickel-pgm in 2012, Pulacayo silver in 2015, Gibellini vanadium in 2017, Bisoni vanadium in 2020, and Minago nickel-pgm in 2021. Mr. Lee is a CFA charterholder and graduated from Rice University with bachelor’s degrees in Economics and in Engineering (honor).

John Lee: The Epiphany Moment for Markets! – Historic Shifts Ahead

In this engaging interview, Tom Bodrovics once again engages in a thoughtful conversation with the legendary Rick Rule. Throughout their discussion, Rick underscores the significance of patience, persistence, and the power of people when it comes to thriving in equities. He also champions Warren Buffett’s concept of compounding as a vital principle for long-term prosperity.
Rick shares his belief that individuals should prioritize self-reliance over reliance on the political system. He cautions against jumping to hasty conclusions based on market narratives. In terms of economic forecasts, Rick expresses concerns about imminent recessions in both the US and globally, advocating that individuals maintain liquidity and top-tier portfolios to navigate market dips.
Rick further discusses Warren Buffett’s investment philosophies, emphasizing the importance of concentrating on industries in which one is knowledgeable.
Rick believes that gold could outperform various other asset classes due to its present insignificant market presence, coupled with Europe potentially distancing itself from the US. He posits that while the US dollar will continue as a reserve currency, it may face challenges from the developing multi-polar world.
Rick believes government will generally choose various covert methods of confiscating wealth from the population instead of direct overt action. Methods like inflating the money supply and taxation are far more likely than direct metals confiscation.
Rick also voices concerns regarding the banking system’s stability given unrealized losses totaling $517 billion and looming debt maturities. He raises issues of insolvency for lenders due to a disparity between long-term assets and overnight liabilities, as well as commercial real estate portfolios. Rick encourages having some bullion as non-correlated cash offering options during tumultuous markets.
Lastly, Rick shares his insights on the Canadian and US banking systems, appreciating Canada’s banks for higher profitability for shareholders but less favorable conditions for borrowers due to minimal competition. The US market, however, offers a broader selection of financial institutions catering to various clientele as both lenders and borrowers. Rick also highlights his efforts in establishing Battle Bank and the necessity of earning interest on savings.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction0:37 – Lessons Learned7:54 – Elections & Investors10:18 – Education & Blaming Society12:24 – Recession Probabilities15:23 – New Paradigms & Understanding22:16 – The World & Gold23:50 – Multi-Polar Outlook26:36 – Covert or Overt Confiscation29:14 – State of the Uranium Cycle32:45 – FDIC & Lender Insolvency35:25 – Commercial Real Estate37:49 – What You Want in a Bank?39:25 – Savings, CPI, & Hedonics41:46 – U.S. Vs. Canadian Banks44:00 – Return Free Risk47:24 – Living Standards & Needs50:34 – Developed Demographics52:26 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode

Rick Rule emphasizes patience, persistence, self-reliance, and knowledge for success in equities, with a focus on Warren Buffett’s compounding principle for long-term prosperity. He also expresses concerns about imminent recessions and advocates maintaining liquidity and top-tier portfolios.
Rule believes in the potential of gold as an asset class due to its insignificant market presence and Europe distancing from the US, while warning about government covert methods of wealth confiscation and instability in the banking system. He encourages having some bullion during market dips.
Rick values Canada’s banks for higher profitability but less favorable conditions for borrowers due to minimal competition. In contrast, he highlights the US market’s broader selection of financial institutions catering to various clientele as both lenders and borrowers. He also discusses his efforts in establishing Battle Bank.

Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickruleTwitter: https://twitter.com/realinvestmentmediaWebsite: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMediaClassroom: https://ruleclassroom.comBootcamp 2024: https://hopin.com/events/rick-rule-s-winter-investors-bootcamp/registration
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.

Rick Rule: The Sure Money to be made in Uranium is Dead Ahead

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Elliott, Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited Funds, who shares his insights on how to evaluate skills from luck in investment outcomes. The discussion also touched upon the current state of inflation in developed countries like Europe, the UK, and the US. Despite recent supply shocks causing higher price growth, wages have matched or surpassed it, resulting in elevated rates exceeding central bank targets.
Elliott also addressed the concerns of central bankers regarding debt and income dynamics, mentioning the risks of negative reinforcing cycles and comparing credit-driven economic expansions to sustainable income-driven ones. The speakers discussed the relationship between government deficits and economic growth, debating whether high levels lead to significant stimulus or a large debt burden.
Regarding labor markets, Bob addressed the rising costs of inflation and the impact on reshoring production in the US. The speakers touched upon de-globalization, parallel supply chains, and shipping costs as causes for price increases and disruptions. The Fed’s current monetary policy stance was discussed, with potential future actions debated due to low unemployment and while inflation is still above target.
Bob questioned the significance of specific labor market numbers and he also touched upon why the US economy avoided a recession despite predictions. In this income-driven environment, Bob discussed the shift from growth to value stocks and the impact on investable assets in sectors with earnings and market consolidation. The supercycle in resource markets was also discussed highlighting investment lags behind demand and potential higher commodity prices contributing to inflation.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction0:47 – Investing Luck Vs. Skill4:18 – Understanding Biases6:54 – Evaluating Advisors10:05 – High Inflation & Rate Cuts13:06 – Why a 2% CPI Target16:56 – Time Preference & Demand20:12 – Types of Economic Expansion27:39 – Deficits & Growth30:32 – Inflation Forces33:52 – Goods Deflation & Supply37:30 – Reshoring & Labor Costs40:16 – Shipping & Disruptions43:24 – Container Ship Costs45:35 – Fed & Rate Cutting?48:02 – Labor Data & Noise50:05 – Global Bond Markets53:23 – U.S. Resilience?55:40 – Value Vs. Growth59:00 – Sectors & Resource Cycles1:03:52 – Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode

Bob Elliott emphasizes the role of both skills and luck in investment outcomes, suggesting investors focus on evaluating individuals’ ability to make informed decisions rather than solely relying on past successes.
Central banks are grappling with rising inflation rates exceeding targets due to wage growth matching or surpassing price increases in developed countries like Europe, the UK, and the US.
Elliott discusses the shift from growth to value stocks amid an income-driven economic environment, highlighting the importance of investing in sectors with earnings and market consolidation.

Guest Links:Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital and private equity.
Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.
Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. There he revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.

Bob Elliot: Wage Growth is Now Helping to Drive Inflation

In Part Two with Michael Oliver and Vince Lanci we discuss the growing political and economic uncertainties revolving around the upcoming 2024 election.
Michael highlights the potential chaos and unrest during the election. He suggests that if the stock market broke before the election, the Democratic Party might consider replacing Biden due to their emphasis on market performance. Tom mentions a poll indicating deep-rooted political divisions, with each party believing a win by the opposite would cause lasting harm to the country. This instability, Michael believes, is not being factored into markets and could lead to major shifts for global investors.
The duo expressed concerns about the upcoming election’s impact on markets and society, emphasizing that elections usually bring uncertainty but, due to deep-rooted political divisions in the US, there is a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty. This could result in increased stock market volatility and even a contested election outcome. They mentioned historical examples like the 2008 election, secession attempts, and the role of gold during such times.
They also touch upon potential implications for gold markets if the U.S. election was contested. They emphasize buying dips instead of selling rallies for gold and silver as alternatives to a volatile stock market. They see gold as a competitive alternative when the stock market experiences volatility.
Furthermore, the conversation explored potential crises or geopolitical events that could lead to the suspension of the upcoming election, including manufactured ones. The speakers also touched upon the role of gold as a metric of economic stability and its potential impact on the election. Additionally, they reflected on the changing political landscape, the influence of various parties and foreign conflicts on the election outcome, and the potential consequences for free speech, civil unrest, inflation, monetary policy, and individual freedoms.
Time Stamp References:00:00 – Introduction00:51 – Fed & Panic Mode08:40 – 2024 Election Chaos?13:26 – Argentina & Milei19:33 – Seceding Successfully?24:41 – Fed Going Away?26:04 – Censorship & Free Speech29:10 – Suspension of Elections?31:18 – Geopolitical Black Swans37:03 – The Uni-Party & RFK39:56 – Metals & Signposts40:33 – Volatility & Buy The Dips42:17 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode

The upcoming 2024 U.S. election is causing significant political and economic uncertainty which the markets have not priced in.
Deep-rooted political divisions indicate a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty, increasing stock market volatility and potential for a market correction
Gold could serve as an alternative investment during such volatile stock markets and potential black swan like events.

Vince Lanci – Guest LinksSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay’s predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS’s parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
Michael Oliver – Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSAAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

Michael Oliver & Vince Lanci: Part Two – Will The Next Presidential Cycle See The End Of The Fed

In this Palisades podcast episode, Tom welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis and Vince Lanci, publisher of the Goldfix Substack. The discussion covers various markets – metals, equity indexes, commodities – and in part two, the upcoming election.
Michael Oliver initiates the conversation by analyzing the NASDAQ’s remarkable growth since the 2009 Bear Low and its significance as a leading index due to its substantial percentage gain. He attributes this influx of funds to the M2 chart or Fed funds rate chart, directing investment into the stock market at that time. Michael then pivots towards the current market situation, sharing his view on momentum analysis and the election’s potential impact, emphasizing the importance of examining trends beyond just price. He points to a major sell signal in January 2022, causing a steep decline followed by recovery.
Vince Lanci contributes by addressing the narrowing breadth in the stock market. He stresses that leadership changes are vital for overall market health and believes there’s currently no breadth, limiting options if AI leadership falters. Vince explains how the stock indexes have shrunk from a broader group to key players.
The discussion also touches on copper and natural gas commodities before focusing on precious metals. Michael highlights the deceptive nature of the acceleration phase in a bull market and the significance of understanding trends and structures rather than relying solely on popular indicators like RSI or MACD.
They further delve into investment strategies based on silver market analysis and historical trends, sharing personal experiences and anticipating precious metals market movements due to geopolitical tensions and central banks’ actions. Vince also brings a geopolitical perspective, focusing on central banks and sovereign wealth funds buying silver as an international trade collateral store of value.
They explore the potential for a new Bretton Woods and gold’s ability to anticipate economic trends. Vince expects significant precious metals market movements due to the anticipated end of fiat currency and gold’s role in predicting economic shifts, with concern about commercial real estate and stock markets potentially being affected by central banks’ involvement.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction1:02 – Nasdaq & Momentum4:58 – Nvidia & Stock Markets?10:38 – Copper Importance12:53 – Natural Gas Chart18:44 – Past Silver Bull Mkts.24:30 – Momentum & Timeframes26:38 – Maintaining Perspective34:09 – Silver Spread Vs. Gold37:40 – C.B. Gold Buying & BRICS43:43 – Gold & The End of Fiat
Talking Points From This Episode

Michael Oliver discusses the NASDAQ’s growth, attributing it to funds shift post-financial crisis, emphasizing importance of understanding market trends beyond just price.
Vince Lanci highlights narrowing stock market breadth and stresses leadership changes are crucial for overall health and potential risks if it falters.
They explore investment strategies in precious metals, discussing historical trends, geopolitical tensions, and central banks’ role.

Vince Lanci – Guest LinksSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisadesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay’s predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS’s parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
Michael Oliver – Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSAAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

Mark Magarian: Bonds Are Presenting an Asymmetric Setup For Gold to Outperform

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