If you could rewind your life to the very beginning and then press play, would everything turn out the same? Or could making an accidental phone call or missing an exit off the highway change not just your life, but history itself?  How did one couple’s vacation cause 100,000 people to die?  Brian Klaas explores how our world really works, driven by strange interactions and apparently random events. Drawing on social science, chaos theory, history, evolutionary biology, and philosophy, he provides a fresh look at why things happen. Brian Klaas is a professor of global politics at University College London. He is a regular contributor for The Washington Post and The Atlantic, host of the award-winning Power Corrupts podcast. His new book is Fluke: Chance, Chaos and Why Everything We Do Matters. You can find him at BrianPKlaas.com and on Twitter @brianklaas.

One Couple’s Vacation Caused 100,000 People to Die

The Michael Shermer Show is a series of long-form conversations between Dr. Michael Shermer and leading scientists, philosophers, historians, scholars, writers and thinkers about the most important issues of our time.

Natural Sciences

Science & Medicine

Science

We push ourselves toward the highest-paying, most prestigious jobs, seeking promotions and public recognition. As Adam Gopnik points out, the result is not so much a rat race as a rat maze, with no way out. Except one: to choose accomplishment over achievement. Achievement is the completion of the task imposed from outside. Accomplishment, by contrast, is the end point of an engulfing activity one engages in for its own sake. Shermer and Gopnik discuss:  mastering the secrets of stage magic (Gopnik's son worked with David Blaine and Jamy Ian Swiss) accomplishment in music family and mentors the concept of the 10,000-hour rule vs. natural talent Adam's new book All That Happiness Is, which offers timeless wisdom against the grain.  Adam Gopnik has been a staff writer at The New Yorker since 1986. He is the author of numerous best-selling books, including Paris to the Moon and The Real Work: On the Mystery of Mastery. Sponor: brilliant.org/skeptic

Accomplishment and Happiness (Adam Gopnik, The New Yorker)

Pulitzer Prize finalist Annie Jacobsen investigated this ticking-clock scenario, based on dozens of exclusive new interviews with military and civilian experts who have built the weapons, been privy to the response plans, and are responsible for those decisions should they need to be made. Shermer and Jacobsen discuss: surviving a nuclear explosion • what happens in a nuclear bomb explosion • consequences of a nuclear exchange • Getting to Nuclear Zero • North Korea, China/Taiwan • increasing budgets for more weapons • types and quantities of nuclear weapons • why humans engage in aggression, violence, and war Annie Jacobsen is an investigative journalist, Pulitzer Prize finalist, and New York Times bestselling author. Her new book is Nuclear War: A Scenario. Her other books include: Area 51, Operation Paperclip, and The Pentagon’s Brain.

Should We Prepare for Nuclear War? (Annie Jacobsen)

Nick Bostrom’s previous book, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, changed the global conversation on AI and became a New York Times bestseller. It focused on what might happen if AI development goes wrong. But what if things go right? Bostrom and Shermer discuss: An AI Utopia and Protopia • Trekonomics, post-scarcity economics • the hedonic treadmill and positional wealth values • colonizing the galaxy • The Fermi paradox: Where is everyone? • mind uploading and immortality • Google’s Gemini AI debacle • LLMs, ChatGPT, and beyond • How would we know if an AI system was sentient? Nick Bostrom is a Professor at Oxford University, where he is the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute. Bostrom is the world’s most cited philosopher aged 50 or under.

An AI... Utopia? (Nick Bostrom, Oxford)

When Robert Zubrin published his classic book The Case for Mars a quarter century ago, setting foot on the Red Planet seemed a fantasy. Today, manned exploration is certain, and as Zubrin affirms in The New World on Mars, so too is colonization. From the astronautical engineer venerated by NASA and today’s space entrepreneurs, here is what we will achieve on Mars and how. Shermer and Zubrin discuss: why not start with the moon? • what it is like on Mars • whether Mars was ever like Earth • how much it will cost to go to Mars • how to get people to Mars • resources on Mars • colonization of Mars • public vs. private enterprise for space exploration • economics, politics, and government on Mars • lessons from the Red Planet for the Blue Planet • liberty in space. Robert Zubrin is former president of Pioneer Astronautics, which performs advanced space research for NASA, the US Air Force, the US Department of Energy, and private companies. He is the founder and president of the Mars Society, leading the Society’s successful effort to build the first simulated human Mars exploration base in the Canadian Arctic.

Life on Mars? (Robert Zubrin)

Shermer and Herold discuss: social robots, sex robots, robot nannies, robot therapists • flying cars, jetpacks and The Jetsons • Masahiro Mori • emotions, animism, mind • emotional intelligence • artificial intelligence • large language lodels • ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-5 and beyond • the alignment problem • robopocalypse • robo soldiers • robot sentience • autonomous vehicles • AI value systems, and their legal and ethical status. Eve Herold is an award-winning science writer. She has written extensively about issues at the crossroads of science and society, including stem cell research and regenerative medicine, aging and longevity, medical implants, transhumanism, and robotics and AI.

One Couple’s Vacation Caused 100,000 People to Die

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