It’s a good news, bad news situation for solar right now. On the one hand, annual installations are continuing to break records, with China set to build almost as much solar this year as the entire world rolled out in 2022. But on the other hand, the industry is suffering from a supply glut, weighing on the prices and margins of module makers. What is driving China’s boom and will the global momentum continue? Are there any underestimated threats to growth beyond grid bottlenecks?
On today’s show, Dana sits down with Jenny Chase, lead solar analyst at BloombergNEF. Together, they discuss the latest outlook for solar, the onshoring of US production and whether its modules can be competitive against cheaper foreign producers, and the role solar can play in ambitions to triple global renewables capacity by the end of the decade.
Complimentary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app.
Links to research notes from this episode:
Global PV Market Outlook, 4Q 2023 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/32793 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Solar Supply Glut Crushes Margins But Buildout Booming

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As part of the Inflation Reduction Act, draft guidance for the US hydrogen production tax credit was introduced in December 2023, with the aim of promoting decarbonization in hard-to-abate sectors and enhancing energy security in the country. While some applauded the draft guidance for preventing greenwashing and driving real decarbonization, others view these requirements as excessive, and fear they could potentially discourage investment in green hydrogen production.
On today’s show, BNEF’s head of hydrogen research, Martin Tengler, hosts a conversation on hydrogen production in the US, with panelists Kathleen Barron, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer at Constellation; Claire Behar, Chief Commercial Officer at Hy Stor Energy; Elena Scaltritti, Chief Commercial Officer at Topsoe; and Andy Vesey, President and Chief Executive Officer at Fortescue North America. They discuss whether the tax credit rules are helping or hurting green hydrogen production in the US, the lack of demand incentives compared with the EU, and the role that nuclear could play in the hydrogen sector’s future.
Today’s episode was recorded live at the BNEF Summit New York. To learn more about BNEF’s Summits and to listen to more interviews, please visit https://about.bnef.com/summit/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US Hydrogen Industry at Odds Over Tax Credit Rules

Sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, has the potential to help decarbonize aviation and is the most scalable technology for this hard-to-abate sector in the near term. With offtake agreements for SAF surging over the past two years, the nascent industry has been showing promise. However, hurdles remain due to scarcity of supply, resource competition from renewable diesel, and a lack of technological diversification.
On today’s show, Dana is joined by Daisy Robinson and Rose Oates, two members of BloombergNEF’s renewable fuels team. Together they discuss the regional policies that are driving the uptake of cleaner jet fuels, the different feedstocks used to produce SAF, and the greenium that SAF faces when compared with traditional fuels.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
2024 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook: Getting Airborne - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33497/view
  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Green Jet Fuel Mandates Lift Demand for Scarce Supply

China is churning out clean energy technology at a breakneck pace, driving down prices on everything from solar panels to lithium ion batteries. With supply far exceeding demand, the timing couldn’t be worse for the many countries that are looking to onshore clean-tech equipment manufacturing.
On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Trade and Supply Chains, Antoine Vagneur-Jones. They discuss the impetus behind the Chinese government’s drive to dominate the clean-tech export sector, the sheer scale of the global manufacturing overcapacity and whether it’s already sufficient to meet net-zero goals, and the US reaction to Chinese companies potentially offshoring production to countries like Mexico.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
China’s Clean-Tech Overcapacity Threatens Onshoring Dreams - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33543
Mexico Won’t Be China’s EV Export Hub to US Anytime Soon - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33761 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China’s Clean-Tech Glut Undercuts US Onshoring Hopes

Voluntary carbon markets are coming off a tumultuous year, with constant public scrutiny and high-profile scandals undermining investor confidence. Despite the turmoil, the market has grown to a record size, as corporations look to carbon offsets to reach their net zero goals.
On today’s show, Dana is joined by Layla Khanfar, BNEF corporate sustainability and carbon offsets analyst, alongside Kyle Harrison, BNEF’s head of sustainability research for the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. They discuss BNEF’s long-term carbon-market scenarios, the different types of offsets that are available for purchase, and how private companies are stepping in to help fill the regulatory void.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
Long-Term Carbon Offsets Outlook 2024 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33315/view See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Do or Die: Carbon Offset Markets Face Critical Year

Seaborne freight is the lifeblood of the global economy. It’s also a heavy polluter. Now that shipping companies, retailers and governments are all looking to decarbonize the supply chain, what is the outlook for clean shipping fuels? In a broad field of competing options including ammonia, methane and LNG, which is the most viable?
On today’s show, Dana is joined by Mohith Velamala, a senior associate on BloombergNEF’s oil team. Together they discuss the maritime sector’s existing decarbonization targets and whether these can realistically be met, the stringent EU policies that are having a global impact, and the long-term outlook for fleet growth and its potential carbon footprint.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
2024 Marine Fuel Outlook - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33189
  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Solar Supply Glut Crushes Margins But Buildout Booming

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