Investing great Ray Dalio said this week: "The stock market doesn't look very bubbly".

But Bank of America just released a new report titled: "The S&P; 500 is egregiously expensive"

Who's closer to right?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts leans more towards BofA's assessment, though that doesn't mean the current mania in stocks can't run higher.

But given that the S&P; has risen for 15 out of the past 17 weeks -- a feat not seen since the 1980s -- Lance feels that the current rally is "extremely long in the tooth" and the odds of a correction are elevated.

We also talk about inflation, jobs, liquidity flows and the current level of risk commercial real estate poses to the banking system.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap.


WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarket #raydalio #stockmarketcorrection

Stock Rally 'Extremely Long In The Tooth' | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

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In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making.

And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions.
Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work.

Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in far below the consensus estimate.

This is important because when it comes to the markets, as well as a number of other issues central to our way of life, we may be walking dangerously close to a tipping point where the prevailing sentiment suddenly reverses and the herd bolts in an unexpected direction -- potentially leading to sharp changes most will be caught unawares by.

So what do we need to be keeping our eyes on most closely?

To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, and author of the book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity.

We'll ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2024.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#socialunrest #bullmarket #sentiment

Should We Be More Worried About A Social Breaking Point Than A Financial One? | Peter Atwater

Stocks markets have had a massive run since November of last year and all the major indices -- the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ - have hit all-time highs this week.

US GDP growth for the current quarter is currently predicted to be 3.6%, global economic growth as measured by PMIs has turned positive for the first time in 2 years, the official unemployment rate remains below 4%, the most important stock to the markets -- Nvidia -- just beat expectations on earnings & revenues...

So it's unsurprising the bulls are feeling large & in charge right now. Talk of hitting S&P 6000 later this year is getting louder.

Is that likely?

In heady times like these, turning to the data & navigating by what it's telling us is often highly useful. Which is why we're fortunate to have one of the best technical analysts in the industry, Tom McClellan, joining us today to share his latest interpretation of the current market action.

Tom is watching several key indicators that, if their decades-long correlation with the stock market continues to hold, suggest a material correction is coming in the second half of this year.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarketcorrection #stockcrash #oilprice

Tom McClellan: These Decades-Long Correlations All Predict A Major Market Sell-Off Later This Year

It's been a week to remember for stocks...

After the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ each hitting all-time highs earlier this week, Nvidia blew past expectations on both revenue and earnings, eclipsing $2.5 trillion in market value.

The bulls are feeling large & in charge as a result, though stocks may take breather soon -- as signaled by Thursday's bloodbath in the markets despite Nvidia's big beat.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees stocks as extended and overbought in the near term, and expects a "cooling off" period to happen soon.

We discuss the reasons why, as well as recession risk, the latest employment data, technical indicators, and our advice to job seekers in this Weekly Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#nvidia #jobs #stockmarket

Extended, Overbought Market Likely To "Cool Its Heels" Soon | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

Today's guest is best known for publishing the world's most respected annual analysis of the precious metals market, known as the In Gold We Trust Report.

It covers what's driving supply & demand, the performance of the metals vs the companies that mine them, and what the outlook for prices is.

This year's report, subtitled The New Gold Playbook, was just issued last week -- all 400+ pages of it. To learn its highlights, we're fortunate to speak today with one of its co-authors, Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Managing Partner & Fund Manager at Incrementum AG.

Ronnie calculates that the bull market in gold is still in the early "Accumulation" phase. That will be followed by the "Public Participation" and "Distribution" phases.

Before the bull run is over, Ronnie sees gold being substantially re-priced higher.

Access the new 400+ page In Gold We Trust report, for free, at https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/34291/?lang=en


SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#gold #goldprice #preciousmetals

Bull Market In Gold Still In Early Innings | Ronnie Stoeferle

After a blowout Q1, stocks swooned in April, raising concerns the bull rally had ended.
Nope.
The bulls returned in May and as of this recording, the S&P;, the Dow and the NASDAQ are all trading at all-time-highs.
Wall Street is confident, the financial media is downright gleeful, and the market momentum has a lot of tailwinds behind it right now. 
But...there are headwinds, too.
Which will win out as we head closer to the uncertainty of the November elections?
For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth.
Cameron thinks that markets still have room to run here. But she warns that if the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, it may have the OPPOSITE effect of what investors are hoping for.


WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com


#interestrates #ratecuts #investing 

Stock Rally 'Extremely Long In The Tooth' | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

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