Inflation – Maybe Stagflation?

Surging unprofitable stocks – a bit of déjà vu here

AI fever rolls on (and on).






After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife’s hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray’s interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. He is a contributor to multiple industry publications and regularly speaks to professional investor groups across the country. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016). Dr. Gray currently resides in Palmas Del Mar. Puerto Rico with his wife and three children.
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Stocks mentioned in this episode: (TOST), (SMCI), (NVDA), (SPY), (YETI)

TDI Podcast: The ETF Architect (#856)

Business

Investing

Careers

Management & Marketing

Business News

Shopping

April ends with a thud.

Oil prices comes in, Yields hold near recent highs.

Flip Flopping Fed and maybe, perhaps could-be is the talk by Powell.

And our guest - Tea Muratovic , Co Founder of Seasonax - provides 5 stocks with amazing seasonal trends.






Tea Muratovic is an accomplished professional in the financial markets with extensive experience in the global market landscape. As a Co-founder of Seasonax, she developed an award-winning analytical tool that identifies promising trading opportunities across over 25,000 stocks, commodities, indices, and currencies (www.seasonax.com).
Tea’s entrepreneurship and management abilities have earned her multiple investment awards (among them she has received the Female Austrian Investor Award in 2019) and recognition from esteemed industry experts. Her remarkable achievements have also led to her inclusion in the prestigious UK’s Women in Fintech Powerlist on three occasions.

Moreover, Tea has contributed numerous articles to prominent industry publications, including Bloomberg, Institutional Money, Refinitiv Eikon, TalkMarkets, FXEmpire, CMT and various international stock exchanges. Her insights have resonated with professionals across the financial sector.
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Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GNRC), (TTWO), (AAPL), (NFLX), (DXCM), (NOW), (NEE), (SO)

TDI Podcast 867: The Right Seasoning

Kicking off the MegaCap Earnings - some concerning items.

Rate Cut Bets Fizzle

Yields Keep Rising

The VIX – Hovering around 16

And our Guest – Johns Williams from ShadowStats









John Williams, founder and publisher of ShadowStats.com.   He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College, and an M.B.A. from Dartmouth‘s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.   During his career as a consulting economist in the last 33 years, he has worked with individuals as well with as Fortune 500 companies.

Out of necessity, he became a specialist in government economic reporting.   An early client's large manufacturer of commercial airplanes had developed a model for predicting revenue passenger miles, a primary sales forecasting tool.   Heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) out of the Department of Commerce, the model suddenly stopped working, and the client asked Williams to fix it.   The GNP numbers were faulty, he corrected them (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later), and the model worked again, at least for a while, until changes in GNP methodology eventually made the underlying data worthless.

That began a lengthy process exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and interviewing key people involved in the system from the early days of government reporting through the present.   For a number of years, he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics.   The vast majority thought it was pretty bad, with survey results leading to 1989 front-page stories in the New York Times and Investors Daily, considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the U.S. government‘s statistical agencies.

Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades.   Problems include changes in reporting methodologies that have pushed headline economic and inflation results outside the realm of real-world or common experience.

Over the decades, Williams has given thousands of presentations on the U.S. economic outlook and on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients "large and small” including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities, as well as having provided testimony before the U.S. Congress.

Public response to a 2004 series of articles on the quality of government statistics was so strong that he started Shadow Government Statistics, a newsletter first published on ShadowStats.com in 2004.   That weekly commentary is published as part of his economic consulting services.
Find out more about ShadowStats.com 



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Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GLD), (SLV), (MSFT), (META)

TDI Podcast: Dismal Science (#866)

Herky-Jerky market action continues.

Powell puts down the gavel.

Tariffs enter the picture again

And our Guest this week - Steve Selengut talking Retirement Money Secrets and The Biggest Mistakes People make investing.





 



Steve Selengut, a 40+ year professional investment manager/advisor/RIA/IAR whose current adventure is coaching both individuals and other advisors in creating income independence for themselves and their clients.

I’m also promoting my 2nd book, Retirement Money Secrets.  

Steve was a private investment manager for 44 years, personally managing around 325 individual portfolios in the USA and abroad. One of a very few investment book authors who have directly managed other people's money.


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Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NFLX)

TDI Podcast: Retirement Secrets/Mistakes (#865)

What commodities look attractive here and why?

Inflation CPI reports - just not looking good

Major banks kick off earnings season..

Guest: Robbie Miles, CFA - Allianz Global





 



Robbie Miles, CFA, ACA - Portfolio Manager (Director) in the Global Thematic Equity team, London

Robbie is a Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors (AGI) with over 12 years of investment experience. He is the lead portfolio manager of two global equity strategies, Positive Change and Food Security, having previously co-run the Global Sustainability fund. He is a Director within the Global Thematic team, which combines bottom-up stock research with thematic analysis.

Robbie joined AGI in 2014, spending 4 of those years in San Francisco, leading the firm’s sustainable investment integration process in the US. Before joining Allianz Global Investors, he qualified as a Chartered Accountant with PwC. Robbie has a first class degree in Environment & Business from the University of Leeds. He is a CFA charterholder.


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Stocks mentioned in this episode: (OIL), (DBC), (AAPL), (C), (JPM)

TDI Podcast: Robbie’s Matrix (#864)

Gold hitting new highs – and oil is on the rise

Easy policy over in Japan  While China is stimulating

Big employment report moves markets

Guest David Gaffen – Editor at Reuters.







David Gaffen is the U.S. breaking news companies editor at Reuters, where he has worked for 14 years. He also did stints as the U.S. energy editor and U.S. deputy markets editor and has been a business journalist for more than 20 years.

In that time he has covered the 2008 financial crisis, the oil-market meltdown in 2020, and was nominated for a Loeb Award for a series of articles on the growth of stock buybacks in 2015. He lives in New York with his family.
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Stocks Mentioned in the Episode: (DIS), (SBUX), (BA), (AMC), (GME), (TSLA), (MSFT)
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TDI Podcast: The ETF Architect (#856)

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