Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg has prominently argued that it’s premature to freak out about Donald Trump’s lead in the polls. Rosenberg’s case is partly that the Democratic Party is strong and has been winning lots of elections lately, as readers of his “Hopium Chronicles” well know. But there’s another, less-appreciated side to his analysis: That the people who make ads and run campaigns and do politics for a living know that Trump’s unfathomably high pile-up of negatives is, in the end, probably insurmountable for him. So we chatted with Rosenberg about this side of his theory — and about why the Biden team appears quietly confident of victory.
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The Serious Case for Not Freaking Out About Trump’s Scary Poll Numbers

Every weekday, The New Republic’s Greg Sargent brings you a fresh way of thinking about the biggest political stories of the moment, offered up in an entertaining, information-packed conversation with a leading lawmaker, journalist, or newsmaker. We go deep into the stories behind the headlines leading TNR and other news outlets—while making it fun and fast.

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This week, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, dropped a bomb: She announced a donation of another $8 million to his campaign. That’s substantially more than her initial $2 million, and suggests much more is coming. Which is a reminder: It’s still very plausible that RFK Jr. will get on the ballot in many of the swing states that will decide the election. We talked to veteran Democratic strategist Stephanie Schriock, who explains why Shanahan’s wealth suggests it’s time to take the RFK Jr. spoiler threat very, very seriously.
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Yikes: RFK Jr.’s Rich Running Mate Just Added $8 Million to His Effort

Earlier this month, Donald Trump refused to commit to accepting the outcome of the 2024 election, shamelessly declaring he’d only do so “if everything’s honest.” Translation: He’ll only treat the outcome as valid if he wins. Infuriatingly, Trump has crucial backing for this project: Fox News and other MAGA propaganda outlets are already laying the groundwork to treat the outcome as illegitimate, should he lose. We talked to Matt Gertz of Media Matters, author of a new piece detailing how these right wing media figures are “warning” that Democrats intend to steal the election, and why that could produce another Jan. 6th or worse. Listen to this episode here.
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Unhinged MAGA Media Figures Are Already Prepping for Trump’s Next Coup

On Tuesday, when Michael Cohen testified against Donald Trump, the former president’s lawyers reminded jurors that Cohen was once slavishly devoted to Trump and used to lie relentlessly on his behalf—before Cohen turned on him. Cohen responded by admitting it: Yes, he was once a member of the Trump “cult.” Which is apt: Again and again, Trump’s own lawyers have seemingly designed their strategy around flattering Trump as much as serving his legal needs. We talked to Ankush Khardori, a former federal prosecutor and senior writer for Politico Magazine, who explained how Trump’s lawyers are making serious mistakes that are rooted in his demand for absolute devotion. 
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Michael Cohen’s Testimony Exposes the Ugly Lunacy of the Trump “Cult”

This week, The New York Times released new polls that sent shock waves through the Democratic establishment, finding Donald Trump leading in all six key swing states, in some cases by startling margins. While President Biden has fared better in other recent polls, the bottom line is that he is trailing in all the swing-state polling averages. So we talked to Jefrey Pollack, a top pollster for the Biden campaign, who laid out why he thinks it’s premature to read too much into these polls, and why the current data set, in his view, actually shows a hidden path to reelection for the president.
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Alarmed By Trump’s Scary New Polling Lead? Listen To Biden’s Data Guy.

Donald Trump constantly claims that crime is out of control. In reality, it’s substantially down under Biden, after soaring during the pandemic that Trump catastrophically botched as president. Now the Democratic group Third Way is releasing a new study finding that this year, congressional Democrats secured substantially more funding for public safety projects across the country than Republicans did. We talked to Jim Kessler of Third Way, who explains how Democrats can go on offense on the issue and beat back Trump’s relentless lies about it.
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The Serious Case for Not Freaking Out About Trump’s Scary Poll Numbers

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