EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW
https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Monday's "strong" ISM manufacturing data sparked a whirlwind of inflation fear(mongering). Today's far more important and weak ISM non-manufacturing data barely took any notice. Why is that? The answer is obvious even though the latter series on services is far more important for the overall economy especially since these estimates for it are highly correlated with so many other critical variables.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg June Fed Rate-Cut Odds Dip Below 50% After Strong ISM Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/treasury-yields-extend-climb-after-strong-ism-factory-gauges https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Things Are Escalating, Quickly...

Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.

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A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal Run Extends to Three Quarters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/japan-s-economy-contracts-as-consumers-companies-cut-spending Reuters Japan's economy skids, clouding BOJ's rate hike plans
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-gdp-contracts-complicating-bojs-rate-hike-plans-2024-05-16/ Reuters Japan's finmin says 'speculative' moves in currency market impacting yen
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japans-finance-minister-sees-speculative-moves-currency-market-2024-04-01/ Investing.com Japan GDP shrinks more than expected in Q1 as consumption slows
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japan-gdp-shrinks-more-than-expected-in-q1-as-consumption-slows-3443154 https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A Globally Systemic Central Bank Is Hiking Rates In A Recession

They called it the most important economic update in living memory, holding the key to everything from inflation to economy and interest rates. When it came out, it wasn't what everyone thought and even more interesting those numbers ended up being overshadowed by another set alarmingly consistent with everything else we've been seeing lately.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS April US CPI press release
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Bloomberg Here Are the Key Takeaways From US CPI Report for April
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-april-2024-key-takeaways-on-inflation-core-measure Bloomberg US Retail Sales Stall After Downward Revisions in Prior Months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-retail-sales-stall-after-downward-revisions-in-prior-months CNN The backbone of America’s economy was just dealt a serious blow
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/economy/us-retail-sales-april/index.html https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

"The Most Consequential Piece of Economic Data in History"

When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Indeed Message from CEO
https://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2 FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html Liberty Street Economics Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/delinquency-is-increasingly-in-the-cards-for-maxed-out-borrowers/ https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Indeed Gives Massive Warning Towards Job Market

China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of Chinese Imports
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/politics/biden-china-imports.html WSJ China Hints at New Growth Push as it Warns of Rising Uncertainties
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-calls-long-delayed-policy-meeting-warning-of-rising-uncertainties-032fb571 https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Worst Banking Data on Chinese Record

There is a resurgence underway not from consumer prices as everyone thinks, instead the use of the term "stagflation." This is really nothing more than the shift in narrative attempting to incorporate more visible economic weakness while still keeping it the idea "inflation." But as the former takes the forefront, the latter will continue to fade until what's left isn't even stagnation.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Things Are Escalating, Quickly...

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