Tomas Hirst is a macro analyst in the Strategy and Allocation division at LMI and formerly worked at Credit Sights, an independent fixed income research company, where he led the European strategy team covering Euro and sterling credit markets. Prior to that, he also worked at Bloomberg and the World Economic Forum in Geneva. Tomas joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the Eurozone economy, the ECB, and the future of the Euro project. Specifically, David and Tomas discuss the macroeconomic state of post-pandemic Europe, the rationale behind the ECB’s rate hikes, the inflation expectations conundrum within the Eurozone, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found  here.   Support the podcast by  making a donation during this holiday season!   Tomas’s blog Tomas’s Twitter:  @tomashirstecon   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:    *The ECB’s New Inflation Target One Year On* by Ursel Baumann, Christophe Kamps, and Manfred Kremer

Tomas Hirst on the State of ECB Policy and the Eurozone Economy

Hosted by David Beckworth of the Mercatus Center, Macro Musings pulls back the curtain on the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.

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George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest of the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss recent updates regarding Fed master accounts, the problematic aspects of the Fed’s balance sheet, why a second Trump term would threaten central bank independence, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s  episode.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   Caitlin Long’s tweet regarding the Fed’s special treatment for approving master accounts    *Public comments on the Proposed Guidelines for Evaluating Requests for Accounts and Services* by George Selgin    *Custodia Bank Inc v. Federal Reserve Board of Governors* Court documents from the Wyoming District Court    *Annual Report on Open Market Operations (2023)* by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York    *Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary    *Trump Advisers Discuss Penalties for Nations That Move Away From the Dollar* by Saleha Mohsin, Jennfier Jacobs, and Nancy Cook    *Hayek versus Keynes on How the Price Level Ought to Behave* by George Selgin   *The Menace of Fiscal QE* by George Selgin    *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings   Timestamps:   (00:01:36) – Intro   (00:06:26) – Updates on Fed Master Accounts and the Custodia Case   (00:17:57) – Problematic Aspects of the Fed’s Balance Sheet   (00:22:50) – The Importance of the Overnight Unsecured Interbank Lending Market   (00:34:26) – Responding to the Jared Bernstein Incident   (00:46:33) – Donald Trump, Central Bank Independence, and Dollar Dominance    (00:56:54) – Outro

George Selgin on Fed Master Accounts, Central Bank Independence, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet

Roberto Perli is the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and a senior leader in the New York Fed’s Markets Group. In his role, Roberto is responsible for implementing monetary policy at the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Roberto is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about a recent speech he made titled, *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead.* Specifically, David and Roberto discuss the Fed’s recent balance sheet activities, the basics and functionality of the overnight reverse repo facility, the importance of slowing down the Fed’s balance sheet runoff, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s  episode.   Roberto’s NY Fed  profile Roberto’s Twitter: @R_Perli   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead* - Remarks by Roberto Perli at the 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:49) – Breaking Down the Role of SOMA Manager   (00:08:43) – Recapping the Fed’s Balance Sheet Activities   (00:11:04) – How to Think About Quantitative Tightening   (00:13:19) – Breaking Down the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility   (00:20:42) – Slowing Down the Runoff and the Future of QT   (00:26:48) – How to Determine the Critical Level of Reserves   (00:33:03) – The Structural Demand for Bank Reserves Over Time   (00:38:55) – The Advantages of the Floor Operating System   (00:47:49) – Reserve Supply Focus Moving Forward    (00:49:44) – Outro

Roberto Perli on the Past, Present, and Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet

Mary Daly is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and is also a 28-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. President Daly joins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about her non-linear career path to the world of monetary policy, the long-term economic impacts of AI, the future outlook for Fed policy and the Fed’s framework, and much more.   Transcript for this week’s  episode.   Mary’s Twitter: @MaryDalyEcon Mary’s San Francisco Fed  profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:    *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:30) – Mary Daly’s Background   (00:06:09) – Recent Inflationary Trends and the Future of Fed Policy   (00:15:39) – The Trajectory of R-Star Over the Medium to Long-Run   (00:19:06) – The Long-Term Economic Impacts of AI   (00:29:51) – Expectations for the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:33:35) – Prospects for Nominal GDP Targeting at the Fed   (00:36:58) – Fed Policymaking During an Election Year   (00:38:16) – Audience Q&A; Period    (01:01:09) – Outro

Mary Daly on Fed Policy, the Economic Impacts of AI, and the Future of the Fed’s Framework

Dan Katz and Stephen Miran are former senior advisors for the US Treasury Department and are currently adjunct fellows at the Manhattan Institute. Dan and Stephen have also written a new paper titled, *Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes,* and they join Macro Musings to talk about this paper and the proposed reforms for the Federal Reserve outlined in it. Specifically, Dan, Steve, and David discuss the ever-expanding reach of the Fed, its role as debt manager and bank regulator, the current issue with the central bank’s personnel, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s  episode.   Stephen’s Twitter:  @SteveMiran Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile   Dan’s Twitter: @DanielScottKatz Dan’s Manhattan Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:    *Reform the Federal Reserve’s Governance to Deliver Better Monetary Outcomes* by Dan Katz and Stephen Miran   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:20) – The Fed’s Issue of Picking Winners and Losers   (00:09:17) – The Fed’s Role as Bank Regulator   (00:12:53) – The Ever-Expanding Reach of the Fed   (00:17:50) – The Fed as a Debt Manager   (00:23:33) – What Should the Fed Do in a Zero Lower Bound Environment   (00:27:26) – Personnel is Policy: The Issue with Fed Personnel   (00:29:55) – Options for Personnel Reform at the Fed   (00:38:22) – Making the Fed President Selection Process More Robust   (00:47:28) – The Nature of Debate at the Fed   (00:50:53) – The Scope for Change at the Fed    (00:53:21) – Outro

Dan Katz and Stephen Miran on Reforming the Federal Reserve’s Governance

Richard Clarida is a professor of economics at Columbia University, a managing director at PIMCO, and was most recently the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Richard rejoins David for this special bonus segment to talk about his interest in music and his first studio album, *Time No Changes.*   Richard’s Federal Reserve profile Richard’s PIMCO archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:    *Time No Changes* by Richard Clarida     *Richard Clarida on FAIT, R-Star, and the Future of the Fed’s Framework* by Macro Musings

Tomas Hirst on the State of ECB Policy and the Eurozone Economy

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