Marking one year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allan and Darren reflect on what they have learned, what surprised them, and how they each are thinking about the path ahead.
We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
“Ukrainian foreign minister responds to Amanpour's 'painful' question about war” (video), CNN, 21 February 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tShC67Xp8m8
Olga Oliker, “Fighting While Female: How Gender Dynamics Are Shaping the War in Ukraine”, Foreign Affairs, 21 November 2022: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/fighting-while-female
Dominic Johnson et al, “Overconfidence in wargames: experimental evidence on expectations, aggression, gender and testosterone”, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Vol. 273, pp. 2513-2520: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2006.3606
China Matters Oration by the Hon Dr Kevin Rudd AC (video), 18 February 2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rlrkT8BXlg
George Winston, “Summer” (1991): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_(George_Winston_album)
Agathe Demarais, Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests (Columbia University Press, 2022): http://cup.columbia.edu/book/backfire/9780231199902

Ep. 110: Ukraine, one year on

A discussion of the most important news and issues in international affairs through a uniquely Australian lens. Hosted by Darren Lim, in memory of Allan Gyngell.

News

Politics

News Commentary

Recent events in economic security (or, geoeconomics) have been dizzying, but exciting for Darren given this is his primary academic field. In Australia, the new budget delivered by the government plans over $20b of industry policy funding for a “Future Made in Australia”. Meanwhile in the US, the Biden Administration has sharply increased tariffs on Chinese goods focused on green energy. The US wants to cultivate domestic manufacturing, in part because it sees PRC dominance of green technology as a national security risk.
This means there is a lot to discuss! In this episode Darren talks with Hayley Channer. who is the Director of the Economic Security Program with the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Hayley has a diverse background having worked as an Australian Government official, Ministerial adviser, think tank analyst, and represented global non-profit organisations. Prior to her current role, Hayley was a Senior Policy Fellow with the Perth USAsia Centre and, amongst other accolades, was awarded a Fulbright Scholarship in 2022.
This lengthy discussion covers the goals of economic security policy and the inherent trade-offs in this domain, particularly in the context of both Australia’s and the US’ emerging industrial policy efforts, as well as the problem of responding to economic coercion.
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Relevant links
Hayley Channer (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/hayley-channer
Anthony Albanese, “A future made in Australia”, Speech, 11 April 2024: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/future-made-australia
Jim Chalmers, “Economic security and the Australian opportunity in a world of churn and change”, Speech at Lowy Institute, 1 May 2024: https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/speeches/address-lowy-institute-sydney
Hayley Channer and Georgia Edmonstone, “What does ‘economic security’ mean to Australia in 2024?”, US Studies Centre Brief, 30 January 2024: https://www.ussc.edu.au/what-does-economic-security-mean-to-australia-in-2024
Lim, D. (2019). Economic statecraft and the revenge of the state. East Asia Forum Quarterly, 11(4), 31–32: https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/12/04/economic-statecraft-and-the-revenge-of-the-state/
Ferguson, Victor A., Darren J. Lim, and Benjamin Herscovitch. “Between Market and State: The Evolution of Australia’s Economic Statecraft.” The Pacific Review 36, no. 5 (September 3, 2023): 1148–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2023.2200026
Victor A. Ferguson, Scott Waldron and Darren J. Lim (2022), “Market Adjustments to Import Sanctions: Lessons from Chinese Restrictions on Australian Trade, 2020-21”, Review of International Political Economy”, http://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019
Darren J. Lim, Benjamin Herscovitch, and Victor A. Ferguson, “Australia’s Reassessment of Economic Interdependence with China”, in Strategic Asia (2023): https://www.nbr.org/publication/australias-reassessment-of-economic-interdependence-with-china/
Leading (podcast), “Speaking Truth to Trump | Former Head of Trump’s Communications, Anthony Scaramucci”, 21 February 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juvfEZsZqUY&list=PL_6zDbB-zRef_M7eXuSLUlGnt7qk66hJq&index=9
Abhijit V. Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Good economics for hard times: Better answers to our biggest problems (2019): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51014619-good-economics-for-hard-times (Goodreads page)
Dani Rodrik, “Don’t Fret About Green Subsidies”, Project Syndicate, 10 May 2024: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/green-subsidies-justified-on-economic-environmental-and-moral-grounds-by-dani-rodrik-2024-05

Ep. 130: Economic security, made in Australia

Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute joins Darren to discuss the troubling trend of PRC military actions that are endangering Australian personnel and equipment, and those of our partners. Last week, a Chinese fighter aircraft dropped flares into the path of an Australian helicopter that was conducting a patrol in international waters as part of sanctions-enforcement against North Korea. Australia lodged diplomatic protests and PM Albanese called the action ‘completely unacceptable’. Similar incidents have happened before. Last year Australian naval divers suffered minor injuries after a Chinese warship released sonar pulses, and there have been other aerial incidents as well.
Why are Chinese forces doing this? Can Australia respond, either unilaterally or with partners? Is an increasingly risky maritime domain now simply part of the price of protecting our interests? Zack talks Darren through his perspective on these issues.
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Relevant links
Andrew Greene, “Australian helicopter forced to take evasive action after Chinese fighter detonates flares”, ABC News, 6 May 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-06/australian-helicopter-chines-fighter-flares-hmas-hobart/103812042
Euan Graham, “China’s latest unsafe interception at sea was no accident”, ASPI Strategist, 8 May 2024: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-latest-unsafe-interception-at-sea-was-no-accident/#:~:text=China%20habitually%20denies%20engaging%20in,endangered%20China's%20maritime%20air%20security
Sam Roggeveen, “Helicopter flare up should highlight China’s base instincts”, Lowy Interpreter, 7 May 2024: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/helicopter-flare-should-highlight-china-s-base-instincts
Corey Lee Bell and Elena Collinson, “The Yellow Sea flare incident: Expect more of the same”, ACRI Perspectives, 13 May 2024: https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/perspectives-yellow-sea-flare-incident-expect-more-same
Nicholas Eberstadt, “East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse: And How It Will Reshape World Politics”, Foreign Affairs (online), 8 May 2024: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asias-coming-population-collapse
Net Assessment (podcast): https://warontherocks.com/category/podcasts/net-assessment/

Ep. 129: Unsafe and provocative actions by the Chinese military

Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC once again joins Darren to discuss a busy month of news, starting with the recent election in Solomon Islands, then a bombshell Washington Post story about the alleged involvement of the Indian government in targeted killings (with a strong Australian angle); next the recent 2+2 bilateral with South Korea and the possibility of others joining onto AUKUS Pillar 2, and finishing with FM Penny Wong’s statement that statehood for Palestine is required to break the cycle of violence.
This episode was recorded on Friday 3 May, exactly one year following the death of Allan Gyngell. He is dearly missed.
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Relevant links
Stephen Dziedzic, Chrisnrita Aumanu-Leong, Evan Wasuka and Doug Dingwall, “Former diplomat Jeremiah Manele elected as new Solomon Islands prime minister”, ABC News, 2 May 2024: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-02/solomon-islands-new-prime-minister-election-jeremiah-manele/103791138
Greg Miller, Gerry Shih and Ellen Nakashima, “An assassination plot on American soil reveals a darker side of Modi’s India”, Washington Post, April 29, 2024: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/india-assassination-raw-sikhs-modi/
Penny Wong, “Speech to the ANU National Security College “Securing our Future”, 9 April 2024: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/speech-anu-national-security-college-securing-our-future
Bettany Hughes, “The Seven Wonders of the Ancient World” (book): https://www.hachette.com.au/bettany-hughes/the-seven-wonders-of-the-ancient-world
Serial, Season 4 (podcast): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/podcasts/serial-season-four-guantanamo.html  
Ezra Klein Show (podcast), “Salman Rushdie is not who you think he is”, 26 April 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-salman-rushdie.html

Ep. 128: Sols vote; nests of spies? growing AUKUS? Palestinian statehood?

In the third episode of a mini-series on international order, Darren is joined by Amy King, an Associate Professor at the Australian National University, to discuss China. It is now cliché to say that China is having a major impact on the current order and its trajectory, but there is little agreement on what that impact is and how far it might go.
Darren has taken a keen interest in this question in his academic research, co-authoring a paper titled “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony” with John Ikenberry that was published in 2023. The journal’s editors subsequently invited two scholars to write critiques, one of those being Amy King.  
Darren opens by seeking Amy’s views on whether the “post-Cold War order” is a useful starting point to discuss China’s influence, and whether she agrees with US Secretary of State Blinken that that this particular order is at an end. They then turn to Darren’s paper, with Darren describing his model of “illiberal hegemony”, where China’s approach to order-building is partially extrapolated from its domestic models of political order and economic organisation. Amy has multiple disagreements both with the model and its implications, which makes for an engaging back-and-forth.
This is another long and wonkish conversation, but returns continuously to practical questions, such what Australian diplomats might say when defending the (old) order to their colleagues across the region.
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Relevant links
Amy King (bio): https://amykingonline.com/
Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and the logic of illiberal hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4244377  || (gated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2178963
Amy King, “The Collective Logic of (Chinese) Hegemonic Order”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2253148
Matthew Stephen, “China and the Limits of Hypothetical Hegemony”, Security Studies: (ungated) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2259801
Darren Lim and John Ikenberry, “China and Hegemony: An Exchange – The Authors Reply”, Security Studies (gated, contact Darren for a copy): https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2252735
Richard Flanagan, “Question 7” (novel): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/question-7-9781761343452
Sam Sachdeva, “The China tightrope: Navigating New Zealand's relationship with a world superpower: https://www.allenandunwin.co.nz/browse/book/Sam-Sachdeva-China-Tightrope-9781991006172/

Ep. 127: A China-led international order?

In the second episode in a mini-series on international order, Darren is joined by Dr. Jenny Gordon to discuss the international economic order. Over the past 40 years Australia has arguably been the single greatest beneficiary of the post-war economic order, at least among the group of industrialised countries. But from the GFC to Brexit to paralysis in the WTO to the rise of weaponised interdependence, geoeconomics and industrial policy, the rules and institutions of that old economic order – and the international trade and investment that flourished within it – are all under threat.
Dr Jenny Gordon is an Honorary Professor at POLIS: The Centre for Social Policy Research at the Australian National University and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute. Jenny had a long career in government, most recently as Chief Economist at DFAT from 2019 to 2021. Prior to that she spent 10 years at the Productivity Commission as the Principal Advisor Research, worked in the private sector, and began her professional career at the Reserve Bank of Australia. She holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University.
The conversation begins with the question: what was the old economic order, when did it begin and what did it do? As an economist, Jenny says the end of the Cold War is not a key turning point for the post-war economic order, one must go back to the 1970s and forward to 2000s find these turning points. She describes why the order worked well and how Australia did so well within it. The discussion moves to the problems and tensions that emerged that have led us to the current moment, and the two debate – and disagree slightly – on the actual state of the current economic order. Finally, they look to the future, and discuss industrial policy, climate change, alternative models of economic growth and, of course, geopolitics, as well as what the rules and institutions of the future might need to do to protect the benefits of economic openness while managing contemporary policy challenges like climate change.
Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.
Relevant links
Jenny Gordon (bio): https://www.lowyinstitute.org/jenny-gordon
The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Moons_of_Maali_Almeida
Peter Bellwood, The Five-Million-Year Odyssey: The Human Journey from Ape to Agriculture: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691197579/the-five-million-year-odyssey
99 Percent Invisible (podcast): https://99percentinvisible.org/
Lupin (Netflix): https://www.netflix.com/au/title/80994082
Huberman Lab Podcast, “Dr. Becky Kennedy: Protocols for Excellent Parenting & Improving Relationships of All Kinds”, 26 February 2024: https://www.hubermanlab.com/episode/dr-becky-kennedy-protocols-for-excellent-parenting-improving-relationships-of-all-kinds

Ep. 110: Ukraine, one year on

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