The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

#150: Migration trends - Outlook for population growth, will Melbourne recover from population losses, interstate and intrastate trends


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In this week's episode Dave, Cate and Pete take you through: Market update

1. Victorian's snubbed by the Federal Government Budget Looking at the Federal Budget infrastructure spend, it appears that Victoria has been overlooked to some degree. The budget set aside $208.4 million in new money for Victorian infrastructure which amounts to 5.9% of the Federal Government spending on infrastructure projects, while the percentage of the Australian population living in Victoria is 25.8%. Interestingly, money has been earmarked for the East-West link project that was booted by the Andrews government.

2. A closer look at capital cities that have pulled back on capital growth Melbourne and Sydney experienced slightly negative capital growth in the month of March. This is expected to continue into April, with two long weekends and a disproportionate increase in listings. Segmenting the market further, it's evident that the higher end properties in the inner ring and inner east of both cities has taken the hardest hit of late. This is consistent with previous market trends, where the top quartile is often the first to move in a changing market.

3. Foreign investment in residential property drops from $10 billion to $6 billion Critical information left out of this headline is that foreign investment in commercial property has doubled from $39 billion to $82 billion, which in part explains why yields for commercial property have lowered. The Australian property market has been seen by foreign investors as a safe haven and yields may very well drop further if commercial property continues to attract interest from overseas buyers. In light of looming interest rate hikes, diminishing yields could be a major concern. The trio discuss the factors and measures which could dampen foreign investment. Migration

4. How has COVID affected population growth? For the last 20 years the Australian population has grown consistently at 1-2.2% year on year. However since the beginning of COVID, this figure has plummeted close to 0% due to international border closures. There is more to the data than migrants and new arrivals, however. Overall population figures also include returning expats, births and deaths. The trio discuss how this has impacted employment, universities and capital city markets.

5. Melbourne and Sydney the biggest losers in flight to the regions There are no surprises that the nations' largest capitals of Sydney and Melbourne were hit the hardest in the great tree and sea change. There are many and varying reasons aside from COVID lockdowns and working from home to explain why this would be the case. A major factor is runaway house prices, which naturally causes migration and investment when housing affordability bites and regional opportunity presents itself as a more cost effective way of life for some households.

6. The outlook for Melbourne Melbourne sustained the biggest population losses in 2021, where a total of 32,000 people left for the regions and interstate, while Sydney lost almost 20,000. Prior to this, Melbourne was on the road to overtaking Sydney to be the most populated city in Australia. Dave shares insights from the Centre of Population on the trajectory for Melbourne's population recovery.

7. Job vacancies jump in regional Australia Cate shares the top 5 regions with the biggest increases in job vacancies over the 12 months from February 2022. Job vacancies are putting pressure on businesses in location...
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The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)By Cate Bakos, David Johnston and Mike Mortlock

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