At Any Rate

At Any Rate episodes:

• 04.19.2024

  US Rates: Tax season, debt ceiling, and reserves

  Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the strength of this tax season and what that tells us about the TGA, the debt ceiling, QT, and the lowest comfortable level of reserves. SpeakersJay Barry, co-head US Rates Strategy Teresa Ho, Head...

  
• 04.19.2024

  Global FX: A strong dollar is not a US problem

  Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan outline our constructive USD view and the implications of the joint statement from Japan/ Korea/ the US this week.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX StrategyArindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyJames Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was...

  
• 04.19.2024

  Global Commodities: Risk premium subtracted

  Oil shrugged this week’s escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. To some extent, this could be explained by the fact that some of the geopolitical risk premium was already priced in. Since last October we have viewed market...

  
• 04.12.2024

  Global Commodities: Natural Gas and Agriculture markets catch up

  With timing being the key behind our bullish regional Henry Hub story, the reversal of a preliminary junction granted to Energy Transfer a year ago may provide relief for future LNG demand. Meanwhile, the USDA’s April WASDE was neutral-to-bearish relative...

  
• 04.12.2024

  US Rates: ‘Post-CPI view on US Fixed Income and Gold’ with Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy and Greg Shearer, Head of Metals Research

  A hot CPI print following the recent strong jobs print has put ‘high for long’ back in focus, challenging the soft landing narrative. We discuss with Phoebe what these ‘bumps in the road’ mean our views on TIPS, breakevens, and...

  
• 04.11.2024

  EM Fixed Income: Stepping Aside (Again)

  Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2024. This communication is provided for...

  
• 04.06.2024

  U.S. Rate: Earthquakes, solar eclipses, and the April tax date

  Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the moves in secured funding rates and Treasury yields in the wake of strong manufacturing and employment data, and preview the risks around March CPI and the April tax date. Speakers Jay Barry, co-head...

  
• 04.05.2024

  Global Rates: A round up of hot topics for Euro rate markets

  In this episode, Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss some current key themes and topics for Euro area rate markets. They cover the upcoming April ECB meeting, the recent fiscal announcements and noise in France and...

  
• 04.05.2024

  Global FX: Go with the flows

  This week, our FX Strategists Patrick Locke, James Nelligan & Ladislav Jankovic discuss USD & G10 FX trends amid a backdrop of strong US data & higher yields against improving global growth signals, and also break down implications for the...

  
• 03.28.2024

  Commodities Focus: Without counter-measures, oil headed to $100

  At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s decision to cut oil production could push Brent oil price to $100 by September. But there are multiple counter-measures that could act as a suitable rebalancing mechanism. The...

  
• 03.25.2024

  Global FX: An uncomfortable setup for USD bulls and bears

  Meera Chandan, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss FX implications from DM central bank superweek and outline expectations ahead of the upcoming BoC/ Riksbank meetings. This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

  
• 03.22.2024

  US Rates: Fed and BoE rate cuts, see you on the flipside

  Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcome of the FOMC and BoE meetings, and the implications for US and UK rates markets.   Speakers:Jay Barry, co-head US Rates StrategyFrancis Diamond, Head of UK and Euro Cash Strategy and Head...

  
• 03.22.2024

  Global Commodities: Copper — The sleeping giant awakes

  Driven by a surge of financial inflows, copper prices have jumped higher in March, eclipsing $9,100/mt earlier this week for the first time in a year. Copper prices are finally responding to the intensifying supply tightness that has skewed us...

  
• 03.21.2024

  EM Fixed Income: EM should rally post Fed

  Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the...

  
• 03.20.2024

  Global Rates, FX & Economics: Will the Scandinavian doves fly?

  Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and James Nelligan preview the upcoming Norges and Riksbank meetings and discuss our views in the FX and Rates market. This podcast was recorded on 20 March 2024. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved....

  
• 03.19.2024

  Global FX and Economics: Everything, all at once from BoJ but yen looks away for now

  We discuss the behavior and outlook for yen in the aftermath of a historic BoJ meeting.   This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655242-0...

  
• 03.15.2024

  Thoughts on the Feb inflation data, the Fed, and US rates markets

  In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the February inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, the Fed, and rates markets. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time. In the Fed's SEP released next week,...

  
• 03.15.2024

  Global FX: Central bank central

  Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the outlook for currencies amidst a heavy central bank event calendar next week.   SpeakersArindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024. This communication is provided for information...

  
• 03.15.2024

  Global Commodities: Russia can maintain current oil exports until June. Expect contentious June OPEC+ meeting

  We believe Russia can maintain oil exports at current levels through June even as it cuts 0.5 mbd crude production. Russia can achieve this by offsetting 200 kbd reduction in banned gasoline exports with higher crude oil shipments as constrained...

  
• 03.14.2024

  EM Fixed Income: What would a shallow US cutting cycle mean for EM assets?

  Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers: Jonny Goulden Saad Siddiqui This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can...

  
• 03.11.2024

  The sun is the same, in a relative way, but vol is lower

  Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss recent developments in the US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and our views going forward   Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 11 March 2024 This communication is provided for information...

  
• 03.08.2024

  Global FX & Economics: Not safe yet

  Meera Chandan, Ben Shatil & Patrick Locke discuss USD/JPY dynamics ahead of the upcoming BoJ meeting, implications of recent US data for the dollar, and the outlook for EUR after this week’s ECB meeting. This podcast was recorded on 8 March...

  
• 03.08.2024

  Global Commodities: Gold Rushes to Record Highs

  Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   Gold prices have shot to new highs this week largely catching the market by surprise given relatively minor moves in rates and FX.  The sharp...

  
• 03.06.2024

  Emerging Markets - The EM Fixed Income Sustainable Debt Asset Class

  The team discuss the key features and developments of the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class. Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Virginia Martin Heriz, Head of ESG Research Methodology and Integration Lydia Harvey, Head of ESG Index Strategy &...

  
• 03.04.2024

  Global Commodities: Moving along the electrification road

  21.6 million electrified vehicles (BEV, PHEV, hybrids) were likely sold worldwide in 2023 or 33% of total auto sales. Sales of battery EVs are still rising, but the growth rate appears to be easing, losing market share to hybrids. Fully...

  
• 03.04.2024

  Spreadbites: High Yield & Leveraged Finance 2024 Conference Takeaways

  Speakers:    Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit   Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Jake Pollack, Global Head of Credit Financing to unpack the latest themes in global...

  
• 03.04.2024

  Global Rates: March ECB meeting and UK Spring Budget – implications for Eur and UK rates markets

  In this episode, Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss thoughts on the recent flash HICP inflation print, the upcoming ECB meeting and the UK Spring budget and the implications for both Euro and UK rates markets. They also...

  
• 03.01.2024

  Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (and data)

  Strategists Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the outlook for rates and currencies ahead of Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony, the ECB meeting, and February employment data next week. Speakers:Jay Barry, US Rates Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on...

  
• 02.28.2024

  Global Rates - Euro area government bond demand update

  Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis published in our Global government bond activity chart pack.   This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2024. This communication...

  
• 02.26.2024

  US Rates: Slowly but surely, pushing back the QT taper timeline

  Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil discuss recent market developments that will likely result in a later QT taper and what that means for markets with respect to ON RRP, reserves, SOFR, and swap spreads. Speakers: Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy Ipek Ozil,...

  
• 02.23.2024

  Global FX: Give me a (range) break

  Arindam Sandilya, Ben Jarman and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid a less dovish tone in bond markets. SpeakersArindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyBen Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX StrategyPatrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 23 February...

  
• 02.23.2024

  Global Commodities: Learnings from Earnings: One US gas producer steps up; European industrial demand starts its comeback

  While US natural gas prices made historic lows not seen since 1995 last week, European and global LNG prices have slid to lows not seen since before the Russia/Ukraine war. As prices have fallen, we have seen some interesting comments...

  
• 02.16.2024

  US Rates: Breaking down the strong January inflation data

  In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the January inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, growth, and rates markets. CPI, PPI and import price inflation all came in stronger than expected in January, even as retail sales...

  
• 02.16.2024

  Global Commodities: US Natural Gas – Max Pain

  With US natural gas price reaching lows not seen since 1995, it begs the question what is the path forward for US natural gas producers this summer? In this podcast, we will discuss how the US natural gas market got...

  
• 02.16.2024

  Global FX: What gives?

  This week, FX strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan discuss the lack of follow-through on the dollar following US CPI, as well as implications from inflation data elsewhere around the DM space. This podcast was recorded on 16 February 2024. This...

  
• 02.15.2024

  EM Fixed Income: No one said it would be easy

  Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist   This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes...

  
• 02.14.2024

  US Rates: Valentine’s Day Special – Lots to Love in the Treasury Futures market

  Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle. Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy Ipek Ozil   This podcast was recorded on February 14, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4621321-0...

  
• 02.13.2024

  EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

  J.P. Morgan strategists and economists’ monthly discussion on the outlook for Emerging Markets fundamentals and markets.  Speakers: Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro ResearchJonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income StrategyNora Szentivanyi - Global Economics   This podcast was recorded on 9...

  
• 02.09.2024

  Global FX: Tariff risks and US exceptionalism support the Dollar

  We discuss market pricing of growing tariff risks and US exceptionalism as durable Dollar supports. CNY focus given newsflow around China equities. In the European space we opine on recent NOK and CHF-related developments. Speakers:James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global...

  
• 02.09.2024

  Global Commodities: How to gain $10 in three months

  Speaker:    Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Our Brent outlook continues to project a tightening market with prices rising from here by another $10 by May with zero risk premium and a 400 kbd unwind of voluntary cuts. So how do...

  
• 02.02.2024

  Global FX: After the storm

  We discuss the FX and rates implications of from key US events this week: the Treasury refunding, the FOMC and the employment report. Speakers:Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 2 February 2024. This communication...

  
• 02.02.2024

  EM Fixed Income: Trying to stay on the straight and narrow

  Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 02 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the...

  
• 02.02.2024

  Global Commodities: Higher, with a little help from China

  Speakers:    Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy & Chemicals   We continue to project Brent oil reaching high $80s by May, with our constructive outlook relying heavily on our optimistic view on demand, especially China. Despite tepid...

  
• 01.30.2024

  Global FX and EM: Yield compression and the carry-value rotation

  Meera Chandan and Anezka Christovova discuss the ongoing global yield compression and implications for carry currencies.   SpeakersMeera Chandan,  Global FX StrategyAnezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy    This podcast was recorded on 30 Jan 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients...

  
• 01.29.2024

  Global Rates & Economics: BoE on hold with a dovish pivot

  Francis Diamond and Allan Monks discuss the upcoming February BoE meeting and views on UK rate markets. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates, but given the clear shift in inflation surprises and perceived risks since November, we believe...

  
• 01.27.2024

  US Rates: The calm before the (policy) storm

  Rates strategist Jay Barry and Chief US economist Mike Feroli discuss the outlook for policy in the week ahead, including expectations for the FOMC meeting, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, and the implications for US rates markets. This podcast was recorded...

  
• 01.26.2024

  Global FX: The dovish tide floods FX

  Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss recent policy developments in China and discuss the dovish tide that is envelopingall DM central bank ex-BoJ.   SpeakersMeera Chandan,  Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX...

  
• 01.26.2024

  Global Commodities: Supply Risks - Copper at a breaking point; Biden halts LNG export approvals

  Speakers:     Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research   Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   There are two interesting supply dynamics happening in two very different commodities that are both grabbing a lot of attention in early 2024: copper...

  
• 01.25.2024

  EM Fixed Income: From giant leaps to small steps

  Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 25 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the...

  
• 01.22.2024

  US Rates: Polar vortex duration extension

  Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the recent developments in US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and their views going forward.   SpeakersSrini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on January 22, 2024. This communication is provided for...