We have a wide-ranging episode to cover the current events wavefront, touching on Vipin’s recent trip to Australia and the state of extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, the self-determined end of Russia’s self-imposed purported “moratorium” on INF-range missiles, and how tomorrow’s US-Russia head of state meeting may influence arms control and nuclear deterrence topics—including the dynamics around New START and a potential successor.

In our New START/summit discussion, we discuss the relevance of U.S. nuclear modernization (not just the substance, but the schedule), the U.S.-Russia relationship, Russia’s recent arms control record, deterrence requirements with China, and the interagency back-and-forth involved in arms control policy-making, to frame what a new “deal” after New START could look like between the U.S. and Russia. We even end up agreeing(?) on the possible outlines of a future agreement, while all reserving the option of changing our views on a whim. (Note: our discussion regarding the Anchorage Summit may be dated, as we recorded this conversation on Friday, 8/8).

The only thing better than AI experts talking about nuclear deterrence are three nuclear experts trying to talk about AI. To this end, Austin, Vipin, and I close with a brief discussion of a recent Foreign Affairs article that touches on both worlds, called “The End of Mutual Assured Destruction.” We talk about whether and how AI advancements are different from past technology-focused research that declared the end of MAD, technological developments that stressed concepts of stable deterrence during the Cold War and how they relate to future pressures AI may create on strategic stability, and whether the U.S. government is well-structured to meet issues that arise at the AI and nuclear policy nexus.

Finally, we preview some forthcoming work on proliferation latency versus breakout strategies—drawing Iran, Libya, and North Korea lessons—and summarize some of the work ahead as the three of us prepare for the launch of the MIT Center for Nuclear Security Policy this fall.

Intro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema.

Recording and edits through Riverside.fm.

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