Bad Policies are Greasing the Wheels for a Global Recession

If the combination of inflation, Russia’s war on Ukraine and a surging dollar don’t send the world into recession, disastrous policy mistakes surely could. That’s the increasingly gloomy outlook among some who gathered in Washington this week for meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Institute of International Finance. One pessimist, Martin Wolf, a longtime columnist at the Financial Times, predicts a deep downturn in Europe, one that includes the UK. That country has been dragged down by a leadership team Wolf calls “mad, bad and dangerous.”

This week’s episode delves into the dicey economic and political climates enveloping three continents. First, Wolf joins host Stephanie Flanders to discuss Europe at the IIF’s annual membership meeting, where he unloads on UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng for their panned efforts to enact tax cuts—which created chaos in the British bond market and sent the pound plunging. Beyond the UK’s borders, natural gas prices that have soared thanks to the Kremlin’s war will pull Europe into contraction, Wolf said. But there’s a brighter scenario, according to Flanders. If it’s a mild winter and natural gas prices fall faster than expected, Europe could end up with too much gas.

Then, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro details how politicians across Latin America are struggling to avoid protests over inflation that’s reached double digits in some nations. Already, people have blocked highways in Panama, rioted in Ecuador and demanded state assistance for the poor in Peru.

Finally, we hear from reporter Colum Murphy, who reveals how the Chinese Communist Party tries to keep foreign journalists in the dark. The party holds its congress in Beijing next week for the first time in five years, and Murphy will be looking for the smallest clues that party members still support President Xi Jinping. In a country where few dare speak out, Murphy said reporters glean what they can from the level of applause to Xi’s speech, which lines get the most attention and whether the party gives him another official title to the three he already holds. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.