When it comes to Behavioural Finance, a few people stand out in terms of their contribution to helping us all understand why and how it works. The intersection between Human Behaviour and Quantitative Investing can be difficult to understand for even the most sophisticated investors.  Today, I want to share some really important insights from one of my favorite professors, who is also a practitioner of this discipline, namely Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of MITs laboratory of Financial Engineering.  Many people know Andrew as the father of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and our conversation was wide ranging, entertaining, and deeply insightful.  So enjoy these truly unique take aways from Professor Andrew Lo. Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about  In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score...

BO26: Behavioral Finance, Crisis Alpha & the Adaptive Market Hypothesis

Step into the fascinating realm of finance and investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and an amazing line-up of co-hosts as your guide. Each week, we engage in captivating conversations with renowned investors, esteemed economists, skilled traders, and visionary thought leaders. Discover the wisdom derived from their journeys, embracing their triumphs and learning from their setbacks. At TTU, we strive to ignite your independent thinking, encouraging you to chart your own path to financial success. Tune in to stay informed and inspired on the ever-evolving landscape of finance and investing. Stay up-to-date with our latest episodes and blogposts at https://toptradersunplugged.com

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Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with  geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where  we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Marko on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps:  02:15 - Marko's current macro framework 07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world 14:43 - How is now different from back in the days? 23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane 31:48 - The election - a macro black hole 36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective 44:18 - What happens with Ukraine? 49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global conflicts? 56:15 - Creating strong...

GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic

Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps:  01:05 - What has been on our radar recently? 06:15 - Industry performance update 09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab? 13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto? 20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies? 26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent? 27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy 32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation 41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation 46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa 57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence 59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about  In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries...

SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver

In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Peter on LinkedIn﻿﻿ ﻿& read his book. Episode TimeStamps:  02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer 04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from? 07:19 - What drives the cycles? 09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles 12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase? 14:39 - Interpreting the signals 17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise? 21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP? 26:54 - Are companies losing their...

IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer

In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:08 - What has been on our radar recently? 08:33 - Industry performance update 16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following? 24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility? 27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation? 31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following? 37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower? 42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach 46:44 - What about the fees? 50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve? 58:45 - The impact of crises 01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter 01:08:26 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics

SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan

Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more.  ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Todd on LinkedIn. Find out more about DUNN Capital Episode Timestamps: 02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital 05:43 - A global macro perspective 09:45 - How has the industry evolved? 13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend? 17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer? 20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds 25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies 29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors 33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies? 39:11 - How...

BO26: Behavioral Finance, Crisis Alpha & the Adaptive Market Hypothesis

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