In the era of big data, the minds of human analysts are no match for the processing power of computers fed with terabytes of data and armed with powerful algorithms. But MWI Non-Resident Fellow Dr. Nicholas Krohley argues in this episode that, far from obviating the need for those human analysts, the incorporation of more and more data into military and intelligence analysis makes human judgment more important than ever.

Ep. 57 – Better Analysts, Humans or Machines?

The Modern War Institute Podcast is the flagship podcast of the Modern War Institute at West Point, featuring discussions with guests including senior military leaders, scholars, and others who discuss the most important issues related to modern conflict.

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When Iran recently launched more than three hundred drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles in a large-scale attack against Israel, almost every single one was stopped from reaching its target. A combination of ground-based air defenses, ship-launched weapons, and aircraft from multiple nations were involved in the defensive operation. But how does such a complex air defense mission happen? How is it commanded and controlled? How are the differing capabilities of such a variety of air defense systems integrated most effectively? And what lessons can be derived from the Iranian attack and the successful defense to inform the way the United States and its partners and allies conceptualize and implement defenses against a rapidly evolving air and missile threat?

How Iran's Missile and Drone Attack Was Defeated

Seventy-five years ago, on April 4, 1949, representatives of twelve governments came together to sign the North Atlantic Treaty. Much has changed in the intervening period—the Cold War came and went, NATO invoked the Article 5 collective defense clause after the 9/11 attacks, an era of renewed strategic competition has emerged, and large-scale conflict has returned to the continent of Europe. Yet despite all of that change, in both the strategic landscape and the alliance itself, NATO's history is marked by remarkable continuities. That means that an appreciation of its history provides a useful framework within which to understand the challenges and opportunities NATO faces today. To explore that history, this episode features a discussion with Seth Johnston, a US Army officer and author of How NATO Adapts: Strategy and Organization in the Atlantic Alliance since 1950.

NATO at 75

In this episode, John Amble speaks to Sandor Fabian about a very specific approach to national defense: resistance. The war in Ukraine has made clear that comparatively small states can be vulnerable to the threat of aggression from larger neighbors. Resistance, Sandor argues, is the most viable means of defense for these states. But effectively embracing it as a strategic approach would require dramatic changes in force structure, training, equipment, doctrine, and more. And if small US allies choose to do so, it would have important implications for US special operations forces and for NATO.

Resistance and the National Defense of Small States

For eight decades, the world has navigated the risk of nuclear war. But what will be required to so in the future? And because that risk is not static, how do we measure, conceptualize, and respond to changes—like when Russia rattles its nuclear saber? What challenges do so-called tactical nuclear weapons pose to deterrence models based on much larger, strategic weapons? And what dynamics influence both the creation and erosion of international arms control frameworks that aim to regulate these weapons? This episode tackles those questions and more. It features a discussion with W. J. “Bill” Hennigan, the lead writer for a new series published by the New York Times called “At the Brink.”

Nuclear Weapons—Past, Present, and Future

The Houthi movement in Yemen has launched dozens of attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea in recent months. Over the same period, militant groups have attacked US forces in the Middle East as many as 160 times—including the deadly drone attack against a base on Jordan’s border with Syria. And cross-border strikes between Hezbollah, operating from its southern Lebanon base, and Israeli forces have increased. All of this has occurred since Israel began its campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas’s October 7 attacks. And all of these groups have strong relationships with Iran. But how should we understand this complex array of combatant groups and their employment by Tehran? More directly, how should the US government respond to these groups’ actions? To explore these questions, this episode features a conversation with Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Ep. 57 – Better Analysts, Humans or Machines?

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