The expanded College Football Playoff (CFP) structure, which reserves seven spots for at-large teams, makes a three-bid scenario for the Big 12 entirely plausible, though it requires both internal dominance and external chaos. The dream scenario hinges on the emergence of three distinct, highly-ranked contenders, all with stellar résumés.

The foundation for this success starts with the top two Big 12 programs—for instance, a team like BYU and one like Texas Tech—navigating their non-conference slates with signature wins over highly-ranked opponents from the SEC or Big Ten. Both teams must enter the Big 12 Championship game with only one loss (or preferably, undefeated), ensuring the loser remains firmly in the top ten.

Crucially, a third program, perhaps a Utah or Cincinnati, must finish the regular season at 10-2 or 11-1, having narrowly missed the title game due to a complicated tiebreaker. This third team's losses must be to the other top Big 12 contenders and no one else, maximizing the perceived strength of the conference.

For the committee to select three Big 12 teams, the SEC and Big Ten must cannibalize their own third-tier contenders. We need both dominant conference champions (e.g., an undefeated Georgia and a one-loss Ohio State), but then their third-ranked teams must have suffered three or more losses, eliminating them from at-large consideration. Furthermore, independent powers like Notre Dame and the third-best teams from the ACC need to finish with two or more losses. This collective national attrition clears the path, leaving the committee no choice but to recognize the three elite Big 12 contenders, awarding them a conference champion auto-bid, and two subsequent high-ranking at-large spots.

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