Contract Cancellations & the Housing Market Reset

The Fed’s relentless effort to stomp out inflation is having a huge impact on one of the nation’s biggest builders. KB Homes reported a homebuyer cancellation rate of 68% in December. And the “housing market reset” isn’t over yet. Although the latest inflation reports show that inflation is subsiding, the cost of a home is still too high for many buyers.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Inflation is Slowly Decreasing   A report on the Consumer Price Index shows a decline of .1% in December with an annual rate of 6.5%. (1) It’s the lowest rate of inflation we’ve seen in more than a year, and a big drop from a peak of 9.1% last summer. Lower oil prices accounted for most of the latest decline.   When you remove prices for fuel and food, the monthly core rate of inflation was .3% with an annual rate of 5.7%. According to MarketWatch, there were few negatives in the CPI report, although the cost of housing is still rising. The report shows the annual cost of shelter at a 40-year high of 7.5%. And those high prices are scaring a lot of potential buyers.   Surge in Contract Cancellation Rates   For KB Home, the Q4 cancellation rate of 68% was almost double what it was in the third quarter. And much more than that compared to a year earlier when it was just 13%.   The last time the cancellation rate was anywhere near that level was at the beginning of the pandemic, but even then it was around 40%. A Fortune article says that, historically, the cancellation rate for builders has only gone as high as 47%. (2)   The data varies from builder to builder and metro to metro. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, the Southwest and Texas experienced high cancellation rates of 45% and 39% respectively. Zonda’s chief economist Ali Wolf tweeted recently that the cancellation rate in Phoenix hit 70%.   Based on data from John Burns, the nationwide contract cancellation rate was 25.6% in October. That’s up from 7.9% in October of last year.    “Conditions Remain Challenging”   KB Home said in a statement: “Current conditions remain challenging. High mortgage rates and persistent inflation, together with an uncertain economy, have made homebuyers more cautious since the middle of last year.” That’s putting affordability out of reach for many people. Others may be hoping that home prices will go lower in the months to come.    For many buyers, it’s not a choice to cancel. They may have signed a contract and paid their deposit before the home was built, and then with construction delays, and a steady increase in mortgage rates, are finding out they no longer qualify for a loan.  Unfortunately, for some, that means the loss of an earnest money deposit, although a survey of 100 builders by John Burns indicates that most builders will return that deposit.   For buyers who don’t get their money back, there’s not much they can do about it. Florida attorney Craig Rothburd says: “Everything in these agreements is drafted in favor of the developer.” That includes a warning that they could lose their deposit if they back out.   Housing Market “Reset” Continues   The situation has left home builders with a lot of inventory, and a lot of strategizing to reduce that inventory. Many are helping buyers by offering mortgage rate buydowns instead of price cuts. KB Home says it is very cautious about price cuts because it doesn’t want to spook buyers who are already under contract. If they think there’s a cheaper option, it could lead to more cancellations.    The Federal Reserve sees the current housing market situation as a “reset” to bring demand in line with supply, along with lower home prices. Higher mortgage rates typically push home prices lower, which has started to happen, but home prices are still too high for many homebuyers. And lower-priced homes are in short supply.   A return to lower mortgage rates could help but with the current fight against inflation, they are expected to remain in the 6% range for this year. The increase has added about a $1,000 to a typical monthly mortgage payment. According to The National Association of Homebuilders, the monthly payment on a $450,000 new home rose from $1,925 at the beginning of 2022 to $2,923 for the same home by the end of the year. (4)    New Home Affordability Weakens   That has substantially reduced the number of households that can afford to buy a median-priced new home. NAHB drew a comparison. It says that a mortgage rate of 3.22% is affordable for 34% of U.S. households. When that rate goes up to 6.42%, which is about where it is now, just 22.3% of households can afford that home. And, when the mortgage rate goes above 7% like it did in October, only 20.3% of households earn enough to qualify for a loan. At that level, you’d need an income of almost $150,000.    Always keep in mind that reports like these are averaging the results for the nation as a whole. Sub-markets will vary, and many of them are still affordable. If you want to learn more about some of those more affordable markets, please visit newsforinvestors.com. You’ll find data on some of the strongest rental and growth markets across the nation. You’ll also have access to experienced brokers and property managers in those markets. It’s free to join and free to access all that information.   Thanks for listening!   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-softens-at-the-end-of-2022-and-clears-path-for-slower-fed-rate-hikes-11673530439?mod=newsviewer_click   2 - https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/fed-housing-market-reset-homebuilder-cancellation-rate-spike-kb-home/   3 - https://www.businessinsider.com/homebuyer-lose-cash-and-homes-as-mortgage-rates-soar-2022-12   4 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/01/how-many-households-are-priced-out-by-higher-mortgage-rates-in-2022/