Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

The Q1 2026 CPI data is finally in, landing at a ho-hum 3.1%. While it’s technically above the target band, the market has already moved on to the next big question: exactly when will the RBNZ hold its nerve no longer and lift the OCR?

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the inflation stats and why July vs September is the current 50/50 bet for the first rate hike. 

We also dive into the latest Chart Pack data showing a soggy 4% year-on-year drop in sales volumes for the quarter, and respond to a listener request for a dedicated rural property market roundup.

This week we discuss:

• Q1 CPI data: Why 3.1% was exactly what the market expected and why the calm before the storm remains the theme for the beginning of 2026.
• OCR timing: July or September? We look at the data gaps facing the Monetary Policy Committee in their upcoming meetings.
• Soggy sales volumes: Breaking down the 4% quarterly decline in transactions and what it says about buyer/seller capitulation.
• Lending rule speculation: Could the RBNZ use LVR or DTI settings as a relief valve while the OCR stays high?
• Rural roundup: A deep dive into agricultural debt, input costs vs output prices, and why farm sales might actually be looking up.
• Te Kaha stadium: Kelvin reports back from the opening Super Round at Christchurch's new world-class venue.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.