FiveThirtyEight Politics

By ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke

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The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

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Why Our Politics Are Stuck ...

09.25.2023

We are at an awkward moment in electoral politics. When it comes to the Republican primary, while there are plenty of alternatives to former President Donald Trump, none of them have gained serious traction. When it comes to Democrats, despite ...

FiveThirtyEight Politics episodes:

09.25.2023 Why Our Politics Are Stuck In 2016 We are at an awkward moment in electoral politics. When it comes to the Republican primary, while there are plenty of alternatives to former President Donald Trump, none of them have gained serious traction. When it comes to Democrats, despite ...
09.18.2023 Workers Are Striking And Americans Are Into It Welcome aboard the Acela, listeners. Today on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we are taking a break from the campaign trail and heading to Washington, D.C., where there’s quite a lot going on. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced last week that ...
09.11.2023 Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a ...
09.06.2023 Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee? Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some ...
08.28.2023 Good Or Bad Use Of Polling: Extended Cut This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler in an episode made entirely of "good or bad use of polling" examples. They consider why GOP primary ...
08.24.2023 Lessons From A Trump-Less Debate The crew discusses their takeaways from the first Republican presidential primary debate in this late-night edition of the podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
08.21.2023 What The GOP Primary Looks Like In The Early States Game time for the Republican presidential primary begins in earnest this week. The first debate is being held in Milwaukee on Wednesday, and it marks the beginning of a five-month countdown to the Iowa caucuses, during which there will be ...
08.15.2023 Three Georgia Law Professors Weigh In On Trump's Indictment Former President Donald Trump has been indicted for a fourth time, now in Fulton County, Georgia, for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in that state. While the alleged crimes in this case are similar in ...
08.14.2023 Who Is The Likeliest GOP VP Candidate? Abortion rights advocates notched another win in a red state. Last Tuesday, Ohioans voted by a 14-point margin not to raise the threshold to amend the constitution to a 60 percent supermajority. Instead, such amendments will continue to require a ...
08.07.2023 Ohio Voters Weigh In On Abortion (Indirectly) Tuesday is Election Day in Ohio and it’s a bit of an unusual one. Ohioans are voting on whether to increase the threshold to pass constitutional amendments from a simple majority to a 60 percent supermajority. In this installment of ...
08.02.2023 Emergency Podcast: Trump Charged In Jan. 6 Investigation Did former President Donald Trump conspire to defraud the United States, conspire to obstruct an official proceeding, actually obstruct that preceding and conspire to willfully deprive American citizens of their right to vote? Those will now be questions for a ...
07.31.2023 July Was Hot As Hell. Do Voters Care? Calculations from the World Meteorological Organization suggest that July was the hottest month on record. Throughout the month, heat records were broken across the globe. Phoenix, Arizona, recorded 31 days in a row of temperatures over 110 degrees Fahrenheit and ...
07.24.2023 Who'd Win A Trump-less GOP Primary? It is widely believed that former President Donald Trump will be indicted for a third time in the coming days or weeks, as he received a target letter from the Department of Justice last week. The potential federal charges involve ...
07.17.2023 Why A Third-Party Candidate Poses A Threat To Biden Campaign finance figures from the second quarter of 2023 were released over the weekend. They offered a first glimpse at many of the presidential campaigns’ finances, since most candidates announced their bids during the second quarter. In this installment of ...
07.10.2023 What's So Special About 'Bidenomics'? Love it or hate it, this is President Biden’s economy and he’s taking credit for it. In recent weeks, Biden has been rolling out his economic pitch to Americans. It started with a high-profile speech in Chicago where he branded ...
07.03.2023 How The Supreme Court Will Shape The 2024 Election The Supreme Court wrapped up its business for the term last week, closing out a docket that touched on the Voting Rights Act, affirmative action in university admissions, student loan forgiveness, business services to LGBTQ people, religious liberty and the ...
06.26.2023 What's With RFK Jr.'s Double-Digit Polling? It's the final week of June and that means that we are anxiously awaiting the decisions in several high-profile Supreme Court cases. The remaining cases touch on issues including affirmative action, President Biden's student loan forgiveness program, business services to ...
06.19.2023 Are Millennials Getting More Conservative? There’s been a lot thrown at Republican voters over the past few weeks. The field of primary candidates has doubled; the leading contender in the primary was federally indicted on 37 counts related to his handling of classified documents and ...
06.13.2023 How Trump's Classified Documents Case Could End Former President Donald Trump was arraigned on Tuesday at a federal courthouse in Miami in relation to his alleged retention of classified documents and obstruction of justice. He pleaded not guilty, setting in motion a trial that could potentially run ...
06.09.2023 Emergency Podcast: Trump's Indictment, The Sequel Former President Donald Trump was indicted on federal charges on Thursday related to classified documents he took from the White House. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the severity and possible political implications of the charges. Learn ...
06.05.2023 The GOP Field Gets Crowded By the end of this week, the number of major candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination is expected to grow to nine. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum ...
05.30.2023 There's A Debt Ceiling Agreement ... For Now In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what’s in the debt ceiling agreement, why polls on the debt ceiling have been straight-up contradictory and what could happen if the legislation isn’t passed by next Monday. They also ...
05.25.2023 The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has officially entered the Twitter space ... er, presidential race. He kicked off his campaign in a conversation on a glitchy Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur David Sacks on Wednesday. In his opening ...
05.22.2023 Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP? The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast gets ready for a big week in politics. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially kicked off his presidential campaign in North Charleston Monday morning. We also expect the long-teased Ron DeSantis presidential campaign to become a ...
05.18.2023 Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged? Since 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. There have long ...
05.15.2023 Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel On Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls in at least three competitive races: the Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary, the Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary and the Jacksonville mayoral election. In this installment of the podcast, Galen and Nathaniel preview the ...
05.11.2023 How Immigration Shapes American Politics Title 42 is expiring on Thursday night, a pandemic-era rule allowing the U.S. government to turn away asylum seekers at the border as a public health measure. This comes at a time when apprehensions at the border are already at ...
05.08.2023 Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular? King Charles III was crowned over the weekend, which led to a lot of polls comparing his popularity to that of other members of the royal family. Long story short, the numbers aren’t great, but in some ways that's beside ...
05.04.2023 How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live For decades, Americans have been moving South and West. That migration pattern was visible in political terms when seven congressional districts moved between states after the 2020 census, and it continues to be visible in the booming construction and job ...
05.01.2023 Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024 President Biden announced his reelection campaign last Tuesday, a widely expected move that also brings us one step closer to a possible rematch of the 2020 election. The crew talks about the challenges and advantages that the campaign will bring. ...
04.24.2023 Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans? Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, ...
04.21.2023 Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast! The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll ...
04.17.2023 The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion The Supreme Court is set for another high-profile clash over abortion rights. Last Friday, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay in a case challenging the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, a drug used in medication abortions. It means that for ...
04.13.2023 Americans Are Feeling Better These Days According to Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index, the negative emotion consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have subsided to a large degree. According to recent data, 17 percent of Americans said they were lonely “a lot of the day yesterday,” ...
04.10.2023 The Politics Of AI How concerned, if at all, are you about the possibility that AI will cause the end of the human race on Earth? And more importantly for the purposes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, is that a good or bad use ...
04.05.2023 The Takeaways From 2023's Super Tuesday Tuesday was quite the day in American politics. Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan and pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. It was also Election Day in one of the ...
04.03.2023 Why Tuesday Is The Highest Stakes Election Day Of 2023 The crew previews a big week ahead in politics. Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday, following last week's indictment. Also on Tuesday, voters will head to the polls to decide the balance of ...
03.31.2023 Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a case involving hush money payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. They discuss the possible ...
03.30.2023 New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart In our federalist system, the saying goes, the states are laboratories of democracy. State governments test out different policies or even political strategies that may someday reach the whole country or drive red and blue states further apart. This year ...
03.27.2023 Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version) After breaking records and breaking Ticketmaster with her "Eras" tour, pollsters have tried to determine who exactly Taylor Swift's fans are and which of her 10 albums is best regarded. In this episode, the crew asks its favorite question about ...
03.23.2023 Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted? All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney’s office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. ...
03.20.2023 The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back The crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country ...
03.16.2023 The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't always ...
03.13.2023 Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998 Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ...
03.09.2023 Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good ...
03.06.2023 The Poll That Ended Dilbert Author Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. It’s very unlikely that Williamson will be a serious challenger to President Biden, but with multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run ...
03.02.2023 Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless' American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but it’s not the only one. In her new book, “Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On ...
02.27.2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the ...
02.21.2023 What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection It's a busy week! The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton ...
02.16.2023 Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Ron ...

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FiveThirtyEight Politics

What's FiveThirtyEight Politics about?

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FiveThirtyEight Politics episodes:

Why Our Politics Are Stuck In 2016

Workers Are Striking And Americans Are Into It

Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color

Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee?

Good Or Bad Use Of Polling: Extended Cut

Lessons From A Trump-Less Debate

What The GOP Primary Looks Like In The Early States

Three Georgia Law Professors Weigh In On Trump's Indictment

Who Is The Likeliest GOP VP Candidate?

Ohio Voters Weigh In On Abortion (Indirectly)

Emergency Podcast: Trump Charged In Jan. 6 Investigation

July Was Hot As Hell. Do Voters Care?

Who'd Win A Trump-less GOP Primary?

Why A Third-Party Candidate Poses A Threat To Biden

What's So Special About 'Bidenomics'?

How The Supreme Court Will Shape The 2024 Election

What's With RFK Jr.'s Double-Digit Polling?

Are Millennials Getting More Conservative?

How Trump's Classified Documents Case Could End

Emergency Podcast: Trump's Indictment, The Sequel

The GOP Field Gets Crowded

There's A Debt Ceiling Agreement ... For Now

The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis

Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP?

Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged?

Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel

How Immigration Shapes American Politics

Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular?

How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live

Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024

Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans?

Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast!

The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion

Americans Are Feeling Better These Days

The Politics Of AI

The Takeaways From 2023's Super Tuesday

Why Tuesday Is The Highest Stakes Election Day Of 2023

Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted

New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart

Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version)

Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?

The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back

The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm

The Poll That Ended Dilbert

Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless'

How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear

What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection

Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination?

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