FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics episodes:

• 04.15.2024

  The Political Stakes Of Trump's First Trial

  Monday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to...

  
• 04.11.2024

  What's Up With The Kids These Days?

  In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades....

  
• 04.08.2024

  Tim Scott Is The Leading Trump VP Contender

  On this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that...

  
• 04.04.2024

  Where Will People Commune In A Godless America?

  Americans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any religion. That’s up from...

  
• 04.01.2024

  The Presidential Election Has Become An Unpopularity Contest

  In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way...

  
• 03.28.2024

  Are US Politics Undergoing A Racial Realignment?

  A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with...

  
• 03.25.2024

  Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway?

  Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In...

  
• 03.21.2024

  538 Debate Club: Should TikTok Be Banned?

  Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of...

  
• 03.18.2024

  How Worried Should Democrats Be About The Polls?

  The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because...

  
• 03.14.2024

  Do Campaign Stops Actually Matter?

  After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan and...

  
• 03.11.2024

  Does Gen Z Really Care More About That Viral TikTok Than Politics?

  The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the...

  
• 03.08.2024

  A Very Political State Of The Union

  In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center. Learn more about your ad...

  
• 03.06.2024

  Super Tuesday Brings A Couple Surprises

  In a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  
• 03.05.2024

  What To Watch For On Super Tuesday

  Super Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really matters. Later in the show, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Correspondent Tia Mitchell joins and...

  
• 02.28.2024

  What To Make Of The Protest Votes In Michigan

  The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Michigan...

  
• 02.25.2024

  After South Carolina Loss, What Is Nikki Haley's Plan?

  In a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's plan is going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  
• 02.22.2024

  Foreign Policy Has Become A Family Feud

  Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November? On this episode of the 538...

  
• 02.19.2024

  What Comes Next In Trump's Trials

  This Presidents Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast grapples with a central question in the 2024 election: What are the legal limits of presidential behavior? Former President Donald Trump is facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases as he...

  
• 02.14.2024

  Democrats Notch A Win In The Battle For The Suburbs

  In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down the results of the special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Tom Suozzi beat Republican Mazi Pilip in a race to replace former Rep. George...

  
• 02.13.2024

  The Political Conversation About Biden's Age

  Voters in New York's 3rd Congressional District are heading to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement for former Rep. George Santos. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses the dynamics at play in the...

  
• 02.08.2024

  The Data Points That Will Explain The 2024 Election

  What is the most valuable data point to watch heading into the 2024 presidential election? This week on the 538 Politics podcast, we interviewed more than a dozen experts — pollsters, political scientists, data journalists — and asked them this...

  
• 02.05.2024

  The Tortured Pundits Department

  How much influence does Taylor Swift actually have? Would her endorsement in a presidential election move voters? Has her presence at NFL games already created new fans among young women? Some have used polling to suggest it has, so in...

  
• 02.01.2024

  How Americans Feel About The Economy

  The conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the economy and...

  
• 01.30.2024

  Will Politics Or Policy Win Out At The Border?

  In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew explores the thorny negotiations surrounding immigration and border security in Washington. Galen talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research; Rachael Bade, author of POLITICO Playbook; and Leah Askarinam, 538...

  
• 01.24.2024

  The GOP Primary Is Basically Over

  In a late-night New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew concludes that the GOP primary is basically over, even if not literally. They dig into the results and exit poll data to describe the coalitions...

  
• 01.23.2024

  Is New Hampshire The End Of The GOP Primary?

  The Republican primary is officially a two-person race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropping out of the presidential race, expectations for New Hampshire and the future of the Republican...

  
• 01.18.2024

  The View From New Hampshire

  With New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary quickly approaching, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast heads to the Granite State. Galen speaks with Annmarie Timmins, Senior Reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin, and Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at...

  
• 01.16.2024

  Trump Wins Iowa. Now What?

  The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa, as well as the race for second place, in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged out former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  
• 01.11.2024

  The Last Debate Before Iowa

  With just days until the Iowa caucuses, the crew reacts to a head-to-head debate between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as a town hall featuring former President Donald Trump. Learn more about your ad...

  
• 01.08.2024

  No Sleep Till Iowa

  The Iowa caucuses are just a week away, and in this installment, the 538 Politics podcast sets its sights on the early states. Galen speaks with celebrated Iowa pollster Ann Selzer about likely caucusgoers' views of the candidates and how...

  
• 01.04.2024

  Do The Betting Markets Have 2024 Right?

  The 538 Politics podcast is kicking off the new year with a game of Buy, Sell, Hold. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year: Who will win the party nominations for president? Will a third party...

  
• 01.01.2024

  There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees… Right?

  Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it...

  
• 12.28.2023

  How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics

  Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it...

  
• 12.25.2023

  Our Presidential Primary System is An Accident

  Happy holidays, listeners! As we approach the Republican Iowa caucuses, we decided to re-air our audio documentary series, "The Primaries Project." This series originally aired in early 2020 and investigates how our modern primary system came to be, how it...

  
• 12.21.2023

  The 538 Podcast Holiday Party

  In this holiday installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks back at some of the most important political events of 2023 as well as some of the weirder political stories of the year. They also debate the thorny...

  
• 12.20.2023

  Reaction Podcast: Colorado Supreme Court Bars Trump From Ballot

  On this special reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Kimberly Wehle, professor of law at the University of Baltimore, and Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst, about the recent ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that bars...

  
• 12.19.2023

  Trump's Primary Challengers Are Running Out of Time

  The U.S. House adjourned for the holidays last week after voting along party lines to authorize an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The Senate is delaying its holiday recess as negotiators try to hash out a deal that would include...

  
• 12.14.2023

  Have Progressives Won The Economic Debate?

  In early 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told New York Magazine that, “In any other country [she and President Joe Biden] would not be in the same party.” Yet, by April of that year, after Bernie Sanders dropped out, she “absolutely” threw her support...

  
• 12.11.2023

  What To Make Of Trump's 'Dictator' Comment

  Former President Donald Trump attracted attention for his answer in a town hall with Sean Hannity last week suggesting he would not abuse his power as president in a second term, “except for Day One.” His answer came after extensive reporting on...

  
• 12.07.2023

  Did The Fourth Republican Debate Matter?

  Galen unpacks the fourth Republican primary debate from Tuscaloosa, Alabama with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley and White House correspondent MaryAlice Parks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  
• 12.04.2023

  Is Nikki Haley The New Ron DeSantis?

  In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent...

  
• 11.30.2023

  2024 Is The First ‘AI Election.’ What Does That Mean?

  Exactly one year ago today, OpenAI launched ChatGPT. And quickly, the program changed the conversation around what is possible for artificial intelligence. In the past 12 months, we've seen campaign videos featuring AI-generated images, legislative proposals and a congressional hearing...

  
• 11.27.2023

  Why The GOP May Be Ready To Say Goodbye To Santos

  The U.S. House gets back to work on Tuesday and one of its first orders of business is expected to be a vote on whether to expel Rep. George Santos of New York. A House ethics report concluded earlier this...

  
• 11.20.2023

  What These Swing Voters Have To Say About The 2024 Election

  What makes swing voters swing? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen heads to Simi Valley, California and speaks with voters whose preferences have crisscrossed parties in recent years. They explain how they’re thinking about politics today and...

  
• 11.16.2023

  The Fight For Working-Class Voters

  In 2016, as has been widely reported, white working-class voters shifted decisively to the right. In 2020, working-class voters of color followed suit to varying degrees, though still giving President Joe Biden a clear majority of their support. This has...

  
• 11.13.2023

  If The 2024 Election Were Held Today, Would Trump Win?

  To mark one year out from the 2024 election, Galen tries to make sense of the political environment based on all the data we have with a crew of election data nerds: G. Elliott Morris, ABC News editorial director of...

  
• 11.09.2023

  Haley Takes On Ramaswamy And DeSantis

  The crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  
• 11.08.2023

  The 2023 Elections Were Good For Democrats

  In this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew unpacks the results from election night 2023. Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky and Ohioans voted to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution. The night was...

  
• 11.06.2023

  Will Kentucky And Mississippi Elect Democrats?

  In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews Election Day 2023, focusing on competitive statewide elections in two very Republican-leaning states — Kentucky and Mississippi. They also consider the value of a recent poll that asked whether we live...

  
• 11.02.2023

  Adam Kinzinger muses: ‘I would love to run against Ted Cruz'

  The former congressman and recent Texas transplant joins the podcast to discuss his new book, “Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty In Our Divided Country.” He reflects on the current state of the Republican Party, how things could change, and why...