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Frank Miller joins to talk arms control after New START, today's threats, and his experience working on nuclear policy and arms control (good history on START I+II)
We had a long, detailed conversation across a host of policy issues that impact arms control policy, diving into his long career as a DoD and NSC official from the late 80s into the early 2000s, overseeing the policy process that supported negotiated reductions in U.S. and Russian nuclear forces for two decades. Here’s a quick list of the topics we covered:
* The relationship between parity as a policy objective vs. deterrence requirements;
* The potential for an “interim restraint” in continuing New START limits constraining modernization, force posture adjustments, breaking comity among the various USG entities involved in nuclear modernization, and/or diminish negotiating leverage;
* How deterrence requirements can and should inform an arms control position;
* His experience leading a SIOP review starting in the late 1980s, how U.S. officials began prioritizing targets in furtherance of U.S. nuclear strategy, and how these efforts helped lay groundwork for the START process;
* what an “all-warheads” agreement could look like between the US and Russia that takes into account deterrence requirements AND politics;
* the concerns expressed regarding a lapse of New START without replacement (or perhaps replacement with an agreement that permits a larger deployed arsenal) and good arguments and goals for future arms control;
* the impact of national interests and personalistic leadership in arms control diplomacy;
* strategies to try and bring China into arms control discussions;
* the direction of travel on U.S.-Russia relations, the Russia/Ukraine conflict, security guarantees and NATO, and the impact of these issues on U.S. nuclear policy-making in the USG right now; and,
* Where Golden Dome may fit into all of these arms control policy considerations.
We end with a little bonhomie in calling for experts across national security disciplines to come together and integrate their perspectives to tackle these important deterrence and arms control questions moving forward.
Intro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema.
Recording and edits through Riverside.fm.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com
View all episodes
By Pranay VaddiWe had a long, detailed conversation across a host of policy issues that impact arms control policy, diving into his long career as a DoD and NSC official from the late 80s into the early 2000s, overseeing the policy process that supported negotiated reductions in U.S. and Russian nuclear forces for two decades. Here’s a quick list of the topics we covered:
* The relationship between parity as a policy objective vs. deterrence requirements;
* The potential for an “interim restraint” in continuing New START limits constraining modernization, force posture adjustments, breaking comity among the various USG entities involved in nuclear modernization, and/or diminish negotiating leverage;
* How deterrence requirements can and should inform an arms control position;
* His experience leading a SIOP review starting in the late 1980s, how U.S. officials began prioritizing targets in furtherance of U.S. nuclear strategy, and how these efforts helped lay groundwork for the START process;
* what an “all-warheads” agreement could look like between the US and Russia that takes into account deterrence requirements AND politics;
* the concerns expressed regarding a lapse of New START without replacement (or perhaps replacement with an agreement that permits a larger deployed arsenal) and good arguments and goals for future arms control;
* the impact of national interests and personalistic leadership in arms control diplomacy;
* strategies to try and bring China into arms control discussions;
* the direction of travel on U.S.-Russia relations, the Russia/Ukraine conflict, security guarantees and NATO, and the impact of these issues on U.S. nuclear policy-making in the USG right now; and,
* Where Golden Dome may fit into all of these arms control policy considerations.
We end with a little bonhomie in calling for experts across national security disciplines to come together and integrate their perspectives to tackle these important deterrence and arms control questions moving forward.
Intro/outro music licensed by Soundstripe: “The Iron Curtain” by Wicked Cinema.
Recording and edits through Riverside.fm.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit strategicsimplicity.substack.com