If you know where the Consumer is going, you will know where our economy is headed.

US Consumer Confidence declined in April from 104 to 101.

• The survey began on April 3 (about three weeks after the bank failures)

The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 68.1 from 74.0.

• The Expectations Index has now remained below 80—the level associated with a recession within the next year

This type of reading points to Consumers spending less and saving more over the next year.

• One thing particularly concerning was that this Survey showed deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age whose households earned over $50,000. 

• • This is the group who tends to spend the most money.

 

IMO, the Consumer is very fearful right now and is starting to brace themselves for the next phase of this Recession… The last leg (Capitulation) is always the worst!

Many are expecting a quick down market followed by a recovery over the course of a few quarters. I personally see a much different story developing. 

• Rate hikes have already done their damage which I believe will lead to a ROLLING Recession that will play out over years of time.

IMO, it would be a major mistake to believe that the Banking Crisis is over… we just finished the first month.

• The 2008 Crashes of Lehman and Bear to Fannie and Freddie unfolded over a year's time... we've just finished the first month.

• Ex: Local Regionals are responsible for about 70% of lending to Corporations and Commercial Real Estate. 

• They have far less capital than then before as fears of default have begun and Treasuries are paying so much more and no FDIC limits. 

3 Primary Areas that Retirees need to focus on now.

1. Income Planning: I just got back from the UK and the Taxi drivers are telling me that they are choosing between buying food and paying for utilities. 

2. 1. Personal CPI is critical… many do not have a Budget and therefore do not understand their Spending Plan

   1. The strategies that got us here may leave us very short in retirement.

      1. BONDS can lose money in 5 different ways… Would be a really bad thing if Defaults or Chapter 11’s began again like they did in highly rated companies like we saw in ‘08

   2. Ex: Buy and Hold had its worst year as both Stocks and Bonds had their worst year next to 2008.

3. Investing: The goal is to Ride Bulls and Tame Bears™ 70-80% of the gain while missing 70-80% of the pain. 

   1. We have a MAJOR DEBT PROBLEM in the US which is going to result in massive Tax Increases.

      1. The goal is to keep as much as possible.

      2. What accounts and What amounts that we need to W/D from?

      3. Tax Advantaged Investing? 

      4. Real Estate options… still have a Mortgage? Options with Rentals? 

   2. Many are not aware that we have 2yrs 8m till the TCJA expires. 

4. Tax Advantaged Planning

The point is that the World is Changing and this is not the time to be falling asleep at the wheel. 

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