The Compute Shortage of 2028-2031

The following scenario is hypothetical.

– Wikipedia entry [last edited 03/25/2034]

Most historians point to two key incidents as the catalysts of the Great Compute Shortage. First, China successfully blockaded Taiwan from late 2028 through 2029. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the globe's leading chipmaker, saw its Taiwan-based operations grind to a halt. Second, Russia sabotaged Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography, Inc.'s operations via a novel cyberattack, stalling production of the lithography systems at the core of chip creation.

Attempts to mitigate these production losses were largely ineffectual. Operation Heavy Lith, a coordinated EU initiative, experienced significant delays due to the bloc's extensive monitoring and reporting process. Meanwhile, in 2029, the US Congress passed the CHIPS 2.0 Act, appropriating over $750 billion to semiconductor manufacturing. The Act, however, required any new lithography and chip production project to complete a multi-stage proposal and review process before [...]

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Outline:

(00:10) The Compute Shortage of 2028-2031

(02:43) Procedural Paralysis

(05:45) Abundance in Action

(07:13) Abundance and AI

(10:14) Solving AI Scarcity

(12:19) Future Abundance

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