MPR News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard just got back from leading a learning vacation with 12 other Minnesotans to Churchill, Manitoba — the “polar bear capital of the world.” Sundgaard, along with Doug Clark from the University of Saskatchewan, conducted lectures on the changing climate of the region and its impact on polar bears. 

It takes a special kind of hardy person to live out on the wind-whipped tundra off Hudson Bay. Dave Daley and his rescued sled dogs have lived here their whole lives.

“I’ve never had to kill a bear — well a polar bear. I like eating black bears. The point is I’ve been charged several times by bears,” Daley said.

The people of Churchill, Manitoba, fully realize the potential dangers of living with polar bears, especially during “bear season.”

“Compared to the other bear species, polar bears are way more likely to exhibit predatory behavior on people.” Doug Clark said.

He’s a scientist that’s studied polar bear behavior for decades, and more recently has tried to understand what might cause more polar bear and human interactions: 

“All the great research that’s been done on bear-human interactions over the years was all done with the assumption that the physical environment, the biological environment, was stable and that’s no longer the case,” Clark said. “We need to be looking more closely at what environmental variability will mean for interaction of all bear species. If things changing means things are likelier to go bad, we probably need to rethink the rules and adapt.” 

Those rules are changing. The arctic and subarctic regions are warming at a pace faster than the rest of the planet and that has impacts on the planet’s biggest land predator. 

“Here in Hudson Bay, every year the ice melts out for typically four or five months. That time of year that the ice melts and stays out has grown longer on average the past few decades,” Clark said. “Your own work here shows the bumpy signal and it can really vary year to year, but the long term trends are really clear.” 

Polar bears need sea ice to hunt their main source of food: seals. More days on land means polar bears and humans could be facing each other more, but every bear is different and the local people understand that dynamic.

Daley sums up living with polar bears: “Bears are like dogs. They have different personalities, too. I’ve seen mean bears, shy bears. I’ve seen disrespectful bears and respectful bears. It’s just a matter of getting to know your area, who lives in there and what you have to deal with.” 

The prevailing thought has been that skinny bears may be the bigger problem, looking for a meal and potentially running into people, but Clark’s recent work shows that might not be the case.

“It turns out that skinny bears, around here at least, are no more likely to come around camps or the study center any more than other bears,” Clark said. “The main push is how long they’ve been off the ice.” 

This year has seen a long period on land for polar bears. The ice went out early this summer with 90 degree temperatures recorded in Churchill — the 10th hottest ever recorded. 

Clark said the activity we saw this year was unusual compared to my previous two visits: “Just going in and out of town we’ve seen bears, which seems unusual, too, and this year we have a late freeze up again.”

“This is a really interesting year. It’s not abnormal to see a lot of bears around this year, you’re right — it’s a really busy year for bears,” Clark said. “People are seeing them all the time. Honestly I’m surprised we didn’t see one today given what we were doing and where we were, but this is a year where everyone’s saying ‘be on your toes.’” 

An increasing number of years with bad ice is leading to a decline in the Western Hudson Bay polar bear population. A recent survey showed a 27 percent decline in just five years. Some of that was movement to other areas, but some was a significant drop. 

“Reproduction of the Western Hudson Bay population is still very low. Survival of subadults is really low,” Clark said. “Once a bear makes it to adulthood, they’re usually OK. But it’s those younger years that are the toughest on them.” 

It’s unlikely polar bears will go extinct soon, but they will almost certainly disappear from some of their current range.

I asked Clark if Churchill will still be the “polar bear capital of the world” in a century:  “I think in a century it’s a fairly safe bet to say probably not. But at the same time, I don’t think the species is going to go extinct.”

There’s been an important shift in recent years involving Indigenous people and local populations in the north in the management and science of polar bears, climate and conservation.

“A lot of northern communities have things done to them in the name of science and conservation, and there’s some redress to be had and we need to do a better job because those folks deserve us doing a better job than has been the case so far,” Clark said. “And they’ll be the most affected or not by the success of the polar bear.”

“They’ve got the most at stake in all of this. Really it’s the fundamental principle of fairness: those with the most at stake should have a say in the decisions.”