This episode edits and remasters two earlier episodes on investing based on cycles to focus on timeless investing principles.

Topics covered include:What are different types of cyclesWhy do cycles have subjective start and end dates.Why do coincidences happen so often.How to position investment portfolios based on cycles.How luck and skill play a role in investing.Why it is better to invest based on calibrating risk rather than prediction.


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Show Notes

Weiss Research

Weiss Research SEC Action

Foundation For The Study of Cycles

Fluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence by Joseph Mazur

A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics – Andrey V. Korotayev and Sergey V. Tsirel

Howard Marks – Yet Gain?

Mastering The Market Cycle by Howard Marks




Related Episodes

173: Should You Invest Based On Cycles

224: Mastering the Market Cycle – Howard Marks

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How To Invest Based on Cycles

A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com

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Some analysts suggest that now is an incredibly attractive entry point to invest in emerging market bonds. We look at how to do this and whether you should.

Topics covered include:How emerging markets bonds have performed relative to U.S. bondsHow frequently have emerging markets bonds defaultedWhat is the difference between local currency and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging markets bondsWhy emerging markets nations are reformingWhat are the ways to invest in emerging markets bonds and what factors should you consider


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Show Notes

Emerging Local Debt: A Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity? by Victoria Courmes—GMO

EM Sovereign Defaults at Record Level, but Rating Outlooks More Balanced—Fitch Ratings

The big opportunity in emerging market debt by Victoria Courmes—The Financial Times

Default Risk Fades in Emerging Markets as Riskiest Bonds Soar by Zijia Song, Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo, and Srinivasan Sivabalan—Bloomberg

The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times

How to invest in closed-end funds - Money for the Rest of Us

Investments Mentioned

iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB)

iShares JP Morgan Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)

DoubleLine Low Duration Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DELNX)

DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DLENX)

Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income ETF (EDF)

DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL)

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MSD)

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (MSD)

Related Episodes

411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta

How to Invest in Closed-End Funds

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Are Emerging Markets Bonds a Once in a Generation Opportunity?

In this conversation with financial advisor Josh Jalinski, David shares his views on constructing and benchmarking portfolios, factor investing including growth versus value, and managing regret. We explore a number of asset classes and strategies including dividend investing, leveraged loans, closed-end funds, equity REITs, and China. We also discuss how to manage retirement assets.

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Show Notes

Josh Jalinksi - Financial Quarterback

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Investing Fundamentals and What Is Attractive Now

Why most households are in better financial shape than prior to the pandemic, but remain frustrated at their lack of economic progress.

Topics covered include:How consumer sentiment surveys are designed and their current findings.Reasons behind consumer frustration with increasing prices amidst declining inflation rates.The magnitude of the inflation shock and its underlying causes.The concept of reference prices and their significant role in shaping consumer sentiment.Factors contributing to the high levels of economic uncertainty among households.Key elements required for enhancing consumer confidence in their economic future.The political repercussions stemming from widespread economic dissatisfaction.


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Show Notes

Surveys of Consumers—University of Michigan

Consumer sentiment climbs amid split views on business outlook—University of Michigan

The Purchasing Power of American Households—U.S. Department of the Treasury

Unemployment Rate—St. Louis Fed

We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost by Rachel Wolfe and Rachel Louise Ensign—The Wall Street Journal

It’s Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income by Jesse Newman and Heather Haddon—The Wall Street Journal

Consumers are increasingly pushing back against price increases — and winning by Christopher Rugaber—Yahoo! Finance

Kraft Heinz ups ad spend, changes leadership by Christopher Lombardo—Strategy

Many Americans Believe the Economy Is Rigged by Katherine J. Cramer and Johnathon D. Cohen—The New York Times

Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic—Worldometer

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380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success

294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events

286: Coronavirus and the Financial Impact of Pandemics

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Is the Economy as Bad as People Think?

How to use covered call and buy-write strategies to generate income while understanding the risks and having realistic return expectations.

Topics covered include:How covered call strategies workHow much can you earn investing in covered call strategiesWhat are some numerical examples based on current option pricesHow covered call strategies can be used for both stock and bond ETFsWhat are some covered call ETF examples


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Investments Mentioned

JP Morgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI)

JP Morgan Equity Premium Income Fund (JEPIX)

Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)

Global X S&P 500® Covered Call ETF (XYLD)

iShares 20+ Year Trs Bd Buywrt Stgy ETF (TLTW)

WisdomTree PutWrite Strategy Fund (PUTW)

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467: Unraveling the Truth About ETFs: Benefits, Analysis, and the Indexing Bubble Myth

418: Bond Investing Masterclass

321: How to Analyze Complex Investments




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Unlocking Income: A Comprehensive Guide to Investing in Covered Call ETFs

A primer on how the economic engine works through coordination between savers, investors, consumers, producers, governments and banks. How hoarding and unfair competition can lead to economic distortions.

Topics covered include:How spending and saving are connected including the paradox of thriftHow borrowing money can lead to higher income and savings and potentially to bubblesHow hoarding differs from investing and why too much hoarding can deprive businesses of capitalHow lightbulbs, grocery stores, and kitchen appliances could be examples of unfair competition and planned obsolescence.What role do we play as participants in this coordinated economic dance?


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Show Notes

Wait, Is Saving Good or Bad? The Paradox of Thrift—The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Rents: How Marketing Causes Inequality by Gerrit De Geest—Beccaria Books

FTC Challenges Kroger’s Acquisition of Albertsons—Federal Trade Commission

The Lifespan of Large Appliances Is Shrinking by Rachel Wolfe—The Wall Street Journal

Related Episodes

288: Will Early Retirements Crash the Economy?

222: Why We Overpay and How It Contributes To Income Inequality




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How To Invest Based on Cycles

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