What in the world will happen on Tuesday? In the final episode ahead of the Israeli elections next week, Election Overdose hosts Anshel Pfeffer and Dahlia Scheindlin walk through the permutations of electoral outcomes, analyze the projected deadlock between party blocs in the polls and consider the greatest uncertainties that could tip the results one way or another. 
Special guest Amir Tibon, deputy editor of Haaretz English Edition, joins us to reflect on the media coverage of this campaign. We also ask, will late-breaking news, such as the Israel-Lebanon maritime border agreement, make a difference?
Subscribe to Election Overdose for the right dose of parties, people, politicians and polls in Israel's fifth election in three years. Follow Dahlia (@dahliasc) and Anshel (@AnshelPfeffer) on twitter and read more of their articles and columns on Haaretz.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Israeli Election: these surprises could tip the scales on Tuesday

From Haaretz – Israel's oldest daily newspaper – a weekly podcast in English on Israel, the Middle East and the Jewish World, hosted by Allison Kaplan Sommer.

News

Iran's firing of hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday night marked a new escalation in a simmering war usually fought by proxies miles from Tehran. Iran's strike, which was largely intercepted by Israel and its allies, leaves lingering questions of global significance.
On a special edition of the podcast, Haaretz reporter Linda Dayan speaks to Haaretz Editor-in-Chief Aluf Benn, who explains how this unprecedented attack came to be – and what might follow. Although this particular barrage failed to inflict mass casualties, in its aftermath, "Israeli decision-makers" must now think "not twice, but ten times, about the consequences" of striking Iranian targets or their proxies in the future. "After October 7, I think we all need to be very skeptical of premediated military outcomes, both for Israel and for Hamas as well."
If you want to fight Iran, Benn says, "you need the early warning capabilities, if not the defensive capabilities, of your allies in the region and first and foremost the United States." But the same alliances that helped Israel are absent for Hamas. Iran's actions "shows Hamas that, at this stage at least, they're still friendless. Nobody is going to come help them," Benn says. "They did not say once that if Israel would be willing to stop the fire in Gaza… they would not retaliate."
As Israelis are worrying about a new front to this war, so, it seems, are Iranians. Arash Azizi contributing writer at The Atlantic and author of "What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom," explains how average Iranians are responding to the threat. "Average Iranians have a lot of problems – economic, the repression they face from the government," he says. "The last thing they can afford is to enter a war with Israel, a country for which there is very little hostility amongst the Iranian public."
"Iranians don't have that hostility to Israel that I think you do have in other Arab countries – it's just not the same thing for us." The warmongers and champions of the regime's aggression toward the Jewish State are a small minority, he says.
The very day of Iran's launches at Israel, the regime ramped up its persecution of women who do not cover their hair, Azizi notes. "The regime will use whatever this conflict is going to be to repress critique," he says, but at the same time, "it's a new vista for the Iranian opposition to oppose the war – and also to oppose this regime that has brought nothing good for Iranians, and has threatened our country with a war that none of us want." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'If One of Those Missiles Hit Tel Aviv We Would Be in a Very Different, Devastating Situation'

Six months into Israel's conflict with Hamas, the solid support U.S. President Joe Biden's White House gave to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has taken a serious hit.
Following the deaths of seven World Central Kitchen humanitarian aid workers, a clash over a possible military operation in Rafah, and Israel's failure to provide a vision for the "day after" the war in Gaza, there has been a "precipitous drop" in the standing of the Israeli prime minister both in the White House and Congress, Haaretz Washington correspondent Ben Samuels tells Haaretz Podcast host Allison Kaplan Sommer.
"World Central Kitchen founder Jose Andres is a close friend of Joe Biden. And when seven of his employees are killed, that made it personal for the president in a way that unfortunately 30,000 Palestinian casualties has not been," he said, sparking an unprecedented tough phone call from the president to Netanyahu in which Biden "really put his foot down."
Behind the scenes at the White House, Samuels said, officials are "incredibly frustrated, and I think they feel a little personally betrayed by Netanyahu as well.
"I think they really believe that they have been going out on a limb providing coverage and support when it is becoming extremely unpopular both within the United States and in the international community. So I think there is a very real sense of resentment," Samuels said.
Also on the podcast, Hadar Susskind, President and CEO of Americans for Peace Now discusses his organization's support for Congress conditioning aid to Israel, a stance that has traditionally been controversial within the world of American Jewish advocacy groups but is gaining traction on Capitol Hill.
As Susskind sees it, "aid to Israel is endangered" because Israel's behavior in Gaza and the West Bank "often does not align with American policy and American values. When that happens, you will see far greater pushback, as we are seeing right now [with] people saying aid should be cut."
As a result, "if you want there to be a path for U.S. aid to Israel to continue, that aid, like all the other aid we give every other country, "needs to be conditioned."
Susskind, a longtime progressive activist in Washington, also discussed the perception that there is an epidemic of antisemitism on the U.S. left.
"I still think it is overwhelmingly actually on the far right," he contends. "That's not to say it doesn't exist on the left. It does, and I've seen it, but... so much of what is reported breathlessly as horrible antisemitism on college campuses is college students chanting 'Free Palestine.' You may dislike that – it might make you or your kid on campus uncomfortable – but I personally don't believe that saying 'Free Palestine' is itself an antisemitic act." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'U.S. military aid to Israel is endangered. More people will say it should be cut'

The controversy in Israel over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from military service "has reached a boiling point," former Haaretz journalist and author Yair Ettinger tells host Allison Kaplan Sommer on the Haaretz Podcast.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continually delayed confronting the issue in his years in power, Ettinger notes. But this week, the High Court's deadline for either enshrining exemptions in legislation or enlisting yeshiva students expired. And it did so during a war in which Israelis serving in the army have made tremendous sacrifices, and amid severe discontent with Netanyahu's coalition, which depends on ultra-Orthodox support.
And so, Ettinger says, Israelis who disliked but tolerated the ability of the ultra-Orthodox to avoid army service in the past have now "run out of patience."
"There is a big dissonance in Israel right now regarding the Haredim. Why? Because they are at the peak of their political power, and yet they don't share the duties [of defending the country]." On one hand, "they are the government. They have been the senior partners of Netanyahu for many, many years. And now, when we have an existential moment, and we are fighting a really difficult war, they don't pay any price."
Ettinger, author of the book, "Frayed, the Disputes Unraveling Religious Zionists," also looks at how the judicial overhaul battle is inextricably intertwined with the military exemption controversy, and discusses the growing rift in Orthodox society over religion and society, the role of women and tolerance of LGBTQ individuals.
That rift, he says, is exemplified at the Pride Parade each year, where "you can see many religious Zionists marching and many others [among] them protesting against the parade."
He also notes that while the Gaza war has underlined the cracks between secular Israelis and their Diaspora counterparts, "the opposite is true" among the Orthodox. "Today, they are closer than ever," Ettinger says. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'Ultra-Orthodox Israelis are at the peak of their power and they don't pay a price in war'

Haaretz journalist Sheren Falah Saab has been covering the unfolding disastrous humanitarian situation in Gaza for months. Even now, aside from reporting on the lives of Gazans as the war rages, she manages, from time to time, to deep dive into Arab culture, and write the kind of articles that she used to send in all the time before October 7.
But, she confesses in this week's conversation with Haaretz Podcast host Allison Kaplan Sommer, the things she hears from Gazans often break her heart.
In the first of three special episodes in which Haaretz subscribers from around the world were given the opportunity to ask Haaretz journalists their questions, Falah Saab responded to a wide range of queries from readers and talked openly about her life as a Druze citizen working as a journalist in Israel, before and after October 7.
She talks about the complex identity issues embedded in the question whether minorities prefer to be called "Israeli Arabs" or "Palestinian citizens of Israel," and the challenging process of sourcing and verifying information inside Gaza, almost six months into the war. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'The more oppression there is, the more younger Arabs in Israel prefer to identify as Palestinians'

This special episode of the Haaretz Podcast features two of the standout sessions from the recent Haaretz-UCLA conference: Israel After October 7 
First, Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman sits down with Haaretz editor-in-chief Aluf Benn to discuss the “perils” and “opportunities” that lie ahead for Israel in the aftermath of the war in Gaza. 
Friedman predicts that "Israel is either going to come out of this with a new relationship with the Palestinians in 2024” or will “go back to 1947-48 with new weapons,” if it fails to develop a coherent vision for the future of Gaza and a wider strategic plan for the region.
The latter option, he fears, becomes increasingly likely the longer that the extreme right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - a group of “incompetent” ministers he would not want “as waiters at my grandson’s bar mitzvah” remains in power.
Then, Haaretz diplomatic correspondent Amir Tibon and his father retired Major General Noam Tibon join deputy editor-in-chief of Haaretz English, Maya Lecker, to recount the dramatic episode on October 7 when armed Hamas militants infiltrated Kibbutz Nahal Oz, where Amir lives. He, his wife, and their two little girls spent tense hours locked in their safe room without food or electricity, before Amir's father undertook what he called "the mission of his life" and drove south in a daring campaign to rescue them on his own.
"On the morning of October 8, I said that everyone responsible for this failure, the biggest failure in the history of the state of Israel, needs to go," Noam Tibon said, echoing Thomas Friedman's message - that Israel needs a change in leadership. "The leadership of the IDF, the Shin Bet – they took responsibility and I know they will go. All of the government too. But the first one who needs to take responsibility is Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister. I believe that Netanyahu is personally in charge of this failure, he basically developed Hamas as an asset. He needs to go as soon as possible."
The entire conference is available for viewing on YouTube here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Israeli Election: these surprises could tip the scales on Tuesday

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