January 2020 GreenSheet #9 Investor Letter

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0:03   This is the story TV. What's up simple passive cash flow listeners wanted to announce the first multi day we mastermind in Hawaii will be holding it on my island of Oahu, Honolulu is on President's Day 2020. And that's February 14 to the 17th. And a reminder, Valentine's Day is the 14th. But we'll keep that evening for you. families and couples want to come on down for that we're actually encouraging spouses and families have come down, because that's part of the whole experience. Getting to know other families and getting to know other community members is gonna be a big part of this. So what to expect structured networking and masterminding with existing CWI investors and other affluent investors. We're going to create the time in the environment to build real relationships that you can take For forever and for you, a students out there will do even be doing a full day of networking and mastermind and education. So once again, bring your families we're going to have optional excursions such as a luau, happy hours dinners and some other activities to be able to have fun in the sun. And, you know, space is extremely limited because my vision is to kind of create this as a more intimate environment where we're all one big little ohana here. So come in and combined business and pleasure in a little tax write off hopefully you can get that right off in before the 2019 ends. Those signing up now we'll be able to get a free one on one strategy session that if you want to stick around till Tuesday, we can knock that out or if you're leaving early, we can try and get that done throughout the weekend. But Hope to see you out in Hawaii go to simple passive cash flow. dot com slash week three. And we'll see you guys here.

2:26   Okay is January 2020. And this is the monthly market update. If you guys have not heard of me before, I have simple passive cash flow podcasts where it's all about passive investing in real estate and potentially other non real estate items as we get deeper and deeper into the market cycle. So the first is a collection of different news articles that I've got it but I do this every year, those who aren't familiar with what's shown here. This is the Google keywords. You can look at keywords in Google and look up different trends and you can see how the world is what they're searching for, throughout the different times. So I'll go in here and I'll screw around, I'll put in the word recession, and obviously in the year 2008, everybody was searching for it. And it's been nothing so far, except there was some kind of blurb here recently. I don't know what that's all about. But then, you know, you compare it to other words, like I put in in blue here, retirement investing and recession seems like people are starting to get back on the investing bandwagon after 2010. So, you know, a lot of you guys are looking for turnkey rentals or even single family homes in general, man, it's just so competitive out there. retirements kind of been steady. I was in San Diego the other month and a guy from john burns gave a speech on market conditions. They're like good slides in here. I just took this one to add in the presentation. Where do we expect the growth to be the strongest will it's all the southern states and this is what I mentioned before. Peter likes little smiley face in United States. I think the further I had properties was Pennsylvania and Indianapolis. But I since sold those properties. Now my most northern property is up in the mines. And yeah, it's a pain in the butt. You got all this pipes breaking and you know the trends are all everybody's moving to the south. Maybe it has something to do with people getting older and they want to retire. But I believe it starts at markets. You're looking at job growth in the southern states for a lot of blue collar jobs. And I think that's what's driving a lot of the Southern growth to certain markets. So a commercial headline here, Florida's first LGBTQ senior housing breaks ground, kind of interesting, and I don't want to get political or or get people upset or anything like here but so like you Like senior housing it is what it is. They say like seniors like to live in clusters with their own racial similarity people. So it's just it's interesting how these things develop like this, some Huntsville news here and some Arkansas news here, a couple secondary tertiary markets that are really starting to get on the radar. And I think Gone are the days where you can just wait for deals coming from Memphis, Kansas City, Indianapolis, you know all the perennial turnkey markets that have been pushed for almost a decade now. You've got to go you've got to go and uncover some higher hanging fruit these days. So Redstone Arsenal is in Huntsville are going to 50,000 workers by 2025 new plants new a class development there and spring for Arkansas. They just leased to BNSF logistics company that I'm very familiar with. The railroad company railroads are known to be leading indicators for the economy at least that's how it was for when you were coming out of the recession in 2010 2012. They're the ones who are are hauling a lot of the raw materials the lumber the chemicals to to industries to them process and make the final product top markets for multifamily rent growth from multi housing news look at that Huntsville Alabama and I'm a little upset because I don't want anybody to know about little Huntsville This is probably the first month I've ever seen it on crack this list Las Vegas has been there but we all know kind of stay away from Las Vegas because it's a very cyclical market. Pensacola was number one Phoenix was number two Huntsville was number three Las Vegas number number four and five was Portland, Maine, and that is 4% change year over year growth. The some news that we've been falling on the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac saga in past news, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, it becomes sort of public entities after the Great Recession of 2018 Kind of collapsed government stepped in and there's there's talks about them going back to private organizations, some articles here and we'll have all this in if you guys go to simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter, all these articles and links are found there if you would like to share that with other people, maybe you have a person who is not completely on board with investing. So Freddie Mac says here that they expect the housing market in 2020 and beyond the GSE also expects home prices growth to slow over the next few years with annual growth rates of 3.2% 2.9 and 2.1 respectively, from 2019 to 2021, respectively,

7:45   still growth but I think that

7:46   everybody's integrins that things are kind of slowing down but still moving forward. But definitely that Gone are the days of the four to 7% increases another article at the end offending me Freddie conservation ship by 2022 They're saying that if all goes well 2021 2022 will see a very large public offering of these companies. What does that mean? Well, I think most investors will get freaked out because oh my god, I can't find a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac loan for my properties anymore. I wouldn't worry about it. There's always going to be some other way. And then this is the government. I'd be surprised if anything you mean happens by 2023. This is also happen. I think, earlier this year for our deals. We were talking to our direct Fanny lender, and they said this is in the summertime that they had hit their annual quarter or quota for 2019. And they weren't gonna be lending anymore, but they had a meeting of the minds and then a couple weeks later, they get it all figured out and then they just move some things around and they they opened up the floodgates again, next article here on a year over year basis. The September starts of buildings with five or more units were 5.8% below September 2018. These two charts are showing the rents been pretty stable. Between a 2% to 4.3% rent increase and in relation to the CPI and then on the right side here is a chart of the multifamily starts and what that is, is new inventory coming online. Typically Class A builds are being built up ranging in 300,000 to 450,000. This last calendar year. Have you ever listened to a podcast or been in a seminar and too afraid to ask a slightly personal question, our mastermind will have an intimate feel where people are going through the program together and at their own pace if needed, in order to foster friendships. When I was learning and paying thousands of dollars for masterminds and mentorships the network however, hokey pokey as it sounds was a big part of it. What happens in the mastermind stays in the mastermind will use the BI weekly webinar sessions to the set concepts with real life examples here how someone else might implement something like infinite banking concept on a hotseat session. Our group will attract thought leaders to meet just with our exclusive group. We can get FaceTime and ask individual questions. Why? Because our group will be people who put their money where their mouth is and go out and make things happen as opposed to your local Rei Club, which is traditionally just a bunch of tire kickers and some sharks simple passive cash flow calm backslash journey to learn more.

10:28   Us job gains surprisingly solid in October says real page and this comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So unemployment has gone down from almost 10% to now little under 4%. So almost like a straight line steadily going down. I mean, everybody's working out there seems like monthly change in employment if they fluctuate, but I think the orange line shows the story right there all time. lows in unemployment now one of all time but been the lowest since about a decade, another Interesting market that I've been kind of looking at lately is Phoenix, Arizona. This article here Phoenix multifamily report is showing the metro sustain economic performance and demographic expansion continues to be reflected in the multifamily market. I'm watching it it's a hot market and it typically is if you look back at the last correction and growth cycle it's growing a lot now but i don't know i mean, me personally, it's very intriguing but yet it also fell a lot in the recession too, but I think I think it would work if you bought like a smaller multifamily in a higher price area like Arcadia submarket is super solid a class but if you push like a C class up to be of course that sounds good in theory, what sounds good in theory isn't really found the ball out there. It's very rare, but I think that would be a cool way to ride this wave. So the yardie matrix report is a pretty good news source for real estate and commercial real estate. Some of their takeaways is that the US economy is a glass half full glass half the The situation where the GDP growth in quarter three was okay at 1.9%. And we expect q4 to be a little lower us oil production is keeping inflation low below 2%. The yield curve, which has inverted been inverted for five months now, or we're talking about is that people talk about the yield curve when the 10 year curve inverted and that was supposed to be marking the end of humanity and the markets as we know it, but we're all still here saying it's flattened following the September 18 and October 30. rate cuts the European and Chinese economies are still in poor shape. The US service sector labor market is extremely tight in wages continue to rise, manufacturing and farm sectors are struggling. There is a highly elevated risk of recession mid 2021, which that's their opinion. I'm reading other news sources that are not free that don't say that but I again, I think it's good to go into deals with cash flow in mind. Just don't get caught with your past. Down is kind of the same yardie continues to say here demographic and lifestyle changes are fueling strong demand for multifamily due to aging population increasing divorce rates and more younger people living at home contribute to smart demand. And overall housing production is unlikely to catch up with household formation. And this is what keeps putting upward pressure on rents and occupancy. And I think this is why you're seeing pressure for rent control a lot of the California type of markets and it continues to talk about some more political risk more from yardie. They came out and it's just another graph here of GDP growth. It's been pretty much positive for a decade Consumer Confidence Index. I don't know how they measure that, but right now it's at all time highs for the last two decades and the Atlanta fed GDP q4 2019. forecast is 1.1. So they also brought up this interesting thought about inflation. Why is there no inflation and they're saying the US oil is flooding the market now I only recently started to check oil I did an oil and gas deal by myself and the last year

14:05   so now I'm actually know what the what the price of oil was before I didn't really care. But now I'm kind of starting to pay attention to it. And that's I think that's indicative of like learning, right? Like if you wanted to learn Bitcoin go put in 500 bucks and you'll start to pay attention to it. So I think what what they're saying here is why isn't inflation going up? Well, the US oil supply is kind of coming into the market and I think that's what's kind of I don't know if I'm saying it right, but maybe it's a cheaper support soil. For those of you guys doing Airbnb and short term rentals. I do have a simple passive casual Facebook group just for that but I'm not a big fan of doing the short term rental stuff and other bad news headline here Airbnb is banning all open invite parties and events says Newsweek hosts who attempt to circumvent this ban, and allow guests to throw large parties will be subject to consequences. Now I thought this was a great idea about 510 years ago right? If you're pretty frugal and you want to downsize or have a small apartment you want to have friends over what do you do you get a cool big air b&b; and you you trashed a place there or you have everybody come over there but apparently Airbnb dawns upon that five markets with the greatest rent loss so you don't want to be on this list number one Midland Odessa they had a percent change of negative 4% number 200. Hawaii Gee, I wonder where that is. It's it's kind of funny because we don't really have boy doesn't really have seasons out here. Number three, Baton Rouge number four Scranton, number five Lafayette like Charles I'm in some fields and like Charles downs kind of alarming to me. So a lot of you guys sent me this article and I thought I'd put it in here because since you guys were interested in me, I didn't really care. Number one, it still has to go through a lot of voting. But so the SEC is proposing to update accredited investor definition to increase access for investments to a minority portation what they're doing is they're adding this term sophisticated are accredited for accredited investors, you can sort of test your way into being accredited by doing like a series six or seven. They haven't figured it out yet, nor have they approve this. But for those investors who are sophisticated, and maybe like half a million dollars net worth, you're able to test to be a credit status. But again, I don't know why this even matters because 97 to 90% of deals out there, if you go to the SEC website, you, you look, we actually spend the time and go look, the Egor database, 90 to 97% of those deals out there are 456 beat deals, which include non accredited investors, sophisticated investors, I don't know why people always fight to get into five or six seed deals. In my opinion, the reason why they're doing is they can't raise the money from their list. That way, they have to go to some crowdfunding website and they have to kind of throw a hail mary for investors, but that's just the way I look at it. crowdfunding websites just cost too much too. Obviously not for the investors but for the audience. Operator it just costs too much money to have money raised that way. I don't know why any good operator would use that as a means of raising capital unless they're desperate average new apartment size shrinks in the East and West Coast City says the national Ari investor in buildings developed since 2010. Apartments average roof size was 940 square feet that's down from an average size of a roughly 1000 square feet in buildings created or before 2010 same prior to 2010 properties were more likely to feature a more prominent mix of two and three bedroom floor plans as opposed to studios in one bedrooms in this kind of goes hand in hand with like like in Hawaii, they there's a lot of multi family households, a lot of people living under one roof. So if you guys have been keeping up with simple passive cash flow, calm content, I say that jokingly because it's almost impossible to do it but these are the new articles that I created this month and the first one is transitioning to syndications and help Tips webinar that was a recent podcast and it's also an a webinar video forum. So if you guys haven't checked out this and passive cash flow YouTube channel, go ahead and search for that if you're listening to this on the podcast just all be on video form for you to look at the cool pictures I spent all my time searching for you guys make it worthwhile for me check it on the YouTube channel. And so the next article here that I worked on was infinite banking with whole life insurance for 2020 when I have Chris miles as a guest, and he actually went through and showed a comparison of two policies, something that I know it's never been done before, but I keep telling these guys like my podcast listeners, and my folks are super smart. Like you just can't keep bringing the same old lame stuff. It's boring. Number three here, new investor portal with three modules and the past deal webinars. So I launched the simple passive cash flow members portal, it is free, but you only get the first three modules of the course and you guys can do that by signing up for the newsletter. The investor club at simple passive cash flow calm slash club I also created this other 2020 goals lunch which after this meeting, we are going to stick around and we are going to go through this goals lunch exercise together and it looks like we have a good amount of people. So we can definitely do a lot of utilize these virtual breakout rooms to hair off and get some interaction within our tribe. So I'm kind of transitioning to my personal activities this past month, it gives my investors insight into my life and maybe gives you some ideas and some things you guys to work on. I break them up into six categories. And the first one is growth. So I spent a lot of December planning for 2020 I one of these ideas I had in my head was to finally do a multi day mastermind in Hawaii. And we've done one in Sonoma before and then last year we did one in would have been Phil Washington near Seattle but never in Hawaii because I had this living belief that nobody would fly out to Hawaii to see me but apparently a lot of people will these days or maybe it's just Hawaii but you guys can check that out simple passive cash flow calm slash Hawaii three h UI three for details on that if you'd like to join us but personally I've implemented this new idea of profit first by Mike mccalla Wits he gave a keynote speech at our last mastermind and initially it's kind of sounds kind of obvious almost elementary like yeah, obviously dummy like you pay yourself first right you put money aside first he brought this matrix here and I'm showing on the screen but it shows where you are in terms of how much money you bring in says real revenue range but that's more of like

20:42   instead of real revenue concert more profit. So let's just say you're bringing in zero to two quarter million dollars your profit you should put aside as pure profit is 5%. So you should put like, you know, out of 100 grand five grand into the bank or make Different bank account like me personally, I'm going to put that in my wife's account and consider that gone. Hopefully that builds a little goodwill for me. So I can keep investing. The next category is owners pay. So this is where you pay yourself a salary for what you're doing. And it's different. It's a little different from profit, but very similar. So they're recommend in here 50% to set aside so your salary and these kind of go back to overview of this, like this is more for entrepreneurs, but I feel like all us real estate investors are sort of like entrepreneurs, where the trouble is like, when do you take profits off the table and actually start living instead of putting your nose to the grindstone and keep saving and putting more money into the next few in the next few in the next in the next year. This gave me a little bit more framework. The next category is taxes. So it's 15% whether you make zero dollars or bazillion dollars, of course some investors making over $300,000 a year might say like what the heck, that's 15% but I see it all the time. You know, that's why you got to be investing. You got to get the deductions and then the bonus depreciation, that's how you get down to that 15% number 2018, I paid 14%. And this past year, I paid 4% of taxes and all following the rules. So the IRS wants to automate, they can come and get it, you know, maybe they'll learn a thing or two, when I figure or at least tell me how to do it the right way, operating expenses. Now, this is something that I took away like, and this is what I see as an investor as the, you know, putting back into your business or buying more properties. So they're saying, the less you make, the less you should be putting back into your business or investing but for me, it was I was doing so many things by myself in terms of running the investment side and running the education company and then going to the gym every day and stuff like that, I realized that my overhead was super low. And I was working like 12 hour days. I mean, last night, I was up to like three o'clock in the morning doing some of this stuff, and that shouldn't be the case and that's going to probably going to lead to burnout. So going through this profit first exercise, I really lies that I need to allocate at least 30% to spending on things like I bought this drink this drink is like a fortune it's like five or six bucks but as opposed to going to the store and buying all the vegetables a cold press it I just buy

23:13   it at some point time is more valuable than money. But if your net worth is under a quarter million dollars, I'm not talking to you, sir. You need to keep working and being a cheapskate In my opinion, second category or contribution I'm going to lead this goals seminar right after this. That's kind of like give back to the community I do every year made it a lot better this year than last year. So there are some new things if you guys have done it in the past. So people like like to go through this exercise. It's kind of a live experience. And we'll be doing this also in Hawaii, but I've got a few other tricks up my sleeve to add to the content. But those of you guys who be sticking around the whole thing is playful out and I think you'll get a lot out of it. third category is significance. So close couple of deals late last year, the hundred four unit and how Phil and then the 212 unit in reflections that I went and visited last time I was in Dallas last month and I played around with the golf cart. You guys saw me on social media playing around with that. Yeah, that's that's why I do what I do. Because I can play around with the quote unquote, other property is that what that is called approach on higher level guests and others and authors on the podcast. So what I'm looking to do, there's find things that you guys are interested in. So if like, I'm having a more mindset person coming in, but not one of those fooful people, and I'm going to steer them in the right direction. But this is all simple passive cash flow. It shouldn't take very long to do all this stuff. And I keep telling a lot of people in the mastermind, if you're spending more than like, five, six hours a month, being a passive investor, you're doing it the wrong way. You need to figure out how to do a lot more efficiently because you're doing it wrong. And I get it like if it's your first few months, you're going to be consuming podcasts left and right, but there's an easy way of doing it and then there's a hard way of doing it. So if there's any content out there that you want Want me to use the simple passive capital podcast to get certain guests to ask our questions and let me know. I'm always looking for feedback for the podcast to add more value out to you guys. category four is uncertainty. I'm trying to take some new mastermind groups and stop going to the normal real estate groupie ones out there which just usually has a bunch of newbies at it. And what's been frustrating is I can't tell who are like legit people because everybody is wearing their nicest suit and everywhere you go, it looks like the NBA Draft. So I've been trying some different mastermind groups outside of real estate and just traveling to new places meeting different people. I will be out to Huntsville earlier this month. If you guys want to come in, walk some properties with me out there, put that out to the mastermind group. I usually release my travel schedule a number five certainty to here because you always want to have certainty in your life. You can't be all like get all your comfort zone nonsense all the time. So I went to Japan last week I was in Japan and just ate a bunch of food. It's very comfortable. There. That's, that's what I did. My Christmas number six year love and connection schedule more meetings to this. I mean yesterday I talked to like eight people throughout the day but before the year gets moving and if we haven't talked before let's get on the phone and let's connect simple passive cash flow calm slash talk before the year gets busy and I don't have time for that anymore get signed up for that some resistance distraction barriers or noise that I've been dealing with, you know, with all the holidays, and I can't seem to get anything done. Everybody just wants to have dinner things like the holidays are over. Also, you guys have any friends who are interested in simple passive cash flow getting that lifestyle and you're tired of talking to them blue in the face, and they don't listen to podcasts and things silly things like that recommend the e commerce and connect us via email and then I'll pay out a referral fee. Let me do the hard work and educating and you can just have lunch with them 510 years from now when you're both retired.

27:00   other random things I bought I bought this cold pressed juice subscription. I guess that's I don't I guess that's considered something where it's super easy and maybe I should probably find something harder to do but that's what I bought this month and it really buying myself any Christmas presents, unfortunately this year, but I've been reading this book, David Goggins a lot of people talk about this guy. So my good buddies, they listen to this podcast, he's kind of crazy. He does ultra marathons and he went to buds like three times if you listen to like the first chapter, it's all about his childhood how he's abused and it's actually kind of graphic and I listened to it on my audio book I don't read it's definitely shakes you up for sure. Here's a link out to that and I've got all my other recommended books if you click this link in the show notes, which is at simple passive cash flow calm slash investor letter, and then the the easter egg here is that the passive investor axillary and mastermind is in your 2020 and if you guys are interested in that, please go to simple passive cash flow calm slash journey and if you just Interested in the E course, go to simple passive cash flow calm slash e course. But maybe we have time for a couple of questions. If you are any comments about some of the news we kind of went through earlier, we can do that now. Or we can go right into the goals seminar about the recession at the beginning, what could happen with a recession and the return on the syndication, say that the recession of three years and what will change in the expected return? Well, I mean, I don't know specifically what deal you're talking about. But every deal is different, right? And that's why you can be investing in all types of things. For me, I go into investments that are producing cash flow today, so that there's a little bit of buffer there, right. And I think a lot of people, they'll have this mindset of I'm not going to invest because everybody's saying it's the top of the market cycle, right? But we don't know it could go for another four years, Trump's likely going to get reelected and this week could be on this part drunken party for another four years. You're gonna miss out you're missing out because you listen to somebody Random headline or some there's a lot of fear base articles and new and new subscriptions out there and I wouldn't get cash flow investing confused with fix and flipping real estate is all for it's all considered real estate and I think that's to me that's hot that's the difference that I see if it cash flows. That's that's a big indicator that I look for this website offers very general information concerning real estate for investment purposes every investor situation is unique. Always seek the services of licensed third party appraisers and inspectors to verify the value and condition of any property you intend to purchase. Use the services of professional title and escrow companies and licensed tax investment and or legal advisor before relying on any information contained herein information is not guaranteed as an everyday investment there is risk the content found here is just my opinion and things change and I reserve the right to change my mind. Above all else, do your own analysis and think for yourself because in the end, you're the only person who is going to look out for your best interests.

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