In today’s Daily Download episode, Mark Watson, chief analytics officer at iEmergent, speaks with HousingWire’s Junior Digital Producer Victoria Wickham about the newly released 2020-2024 U.S Total Mortgage Volume Forecast.

iEmergent’s forecast projects this year’s total residential mortgage lending could reach as high as $3.21 trillion, primarily driven by a refinance market that could also reach as high as $2.26 trillion.

Watson said one reason behind the refinance volume is low mortgage interest rates.

"The cost of getting a mortgage now is as cheapest it's ever been," Watson said. "We think that everybody is going to adjust to this new normal and next year should should be back on an upward trajectory."

Watson also discusses the biggest factors impacting the purchase and refinance market and shares one major concern over the health of the housing market from potential problems arising due to mortgage payment forbearances.

If borrowers end up defaulting and having to go into foreclosure, it "presents a real problem for the entire housing market,” he said. According to the latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association, approximately 4.2 million homeowners are now in forbearance.

Closing out the interview, Watson said, "We still have a situation where the inventory of homes available for sale is still very tight, but for potential homebuyers that find a home that they like and that they can afford, now it's certainly a great time to buy."

The Daily Download examines the most compelling articles reported from the HousingWire newsroom team. Each afternoon, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsroom that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted by the HW team and produced by Alcynna Lloyd and Victoria Wickham.