Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint.. I’m Nelson John and here are today’s top stories.

Flat Start for Markets, All Eyes on RBI

Indian markets are bracing for a cautious open this Monday. Global cues are mixed—Japan’s Nikkei and Topix dipped, while US indices closed steady after clocking their best monthly gains since Nov 2023. Gift Nifty hints at a flat open.

The big domestic trigger? The RBI’s monetary policy decision on Friday, with markets pricing in a 25-bps rate cut. Investors will also track May auto sales, foreign fund flows, and the fallout from Trump’s move to double US steel tariffs to 50%.

India’s GDP grew 7.4% in Q4, even as FY25 growth slowed to 6.5%. GST collections stayed strong at ₹2 lakh crore+, and crude oil prices are heating up again.

“Stay diversified,” says PL Capital’s Vikram Kasat. “Macro resilience is intact, but global uncertainty looms.”

🛠️ US-India Metal Clash Intensifies

It’s steel vs steel. On May 9, India notified the WTO of its intent to hit back at US tariffs on metals. Washington’s response? “These aren’t safeguard tariffs—they’re national security measures.” With no scope for talks, the US doubled its steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% starting June 4.

India exported $4.56 billion worth of metal products to the US in FY25—now at risk. Retaliation could come via higher duties on US almonds, walnuts, and metals. A first-phase bilateral trade deal could still soften the blow—but for now, tensions are high.

“If the US won’t play ball, tariffs are coming,” say trade insiders.

💹 Rupee May Rise on Growth Surprise, Rate Cut Buzz

The Indian rupee could see a boost this week, helped by stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP and a widely anticipated RBI rate cut. Markets expect a 25-bps cut to 5.75%.

MUFG says inflation remains in check, with CPI forecast to stay below 4%, giving the central bank room to ease. Bond markets are already moving—5-year yields continue to outperform, showing “extreme bullish positioning,” according to IndiaBonds’ Vishal Goenka.

But globally, Trump’s tariff blitz and upcoming US jobs data could stir fresh volatility. The rupee is expected to hover between 84.80–86 in the near term.

⛏️ NMDC Bets ₹70,000 Cr on Mining Expansion

State-owned mining giant NMDC is going global and going big—with a ₹70,000 crore capex push over the next three years. CMD Amitava Mukherjee says the firm will explore 10 minerals including lithium, cobalt, and gold across Africa, Australia, Southeast Asia, and South America.

₹43,000 crore worth of projects are already in the pipeline, with another ₹30,000 crore to be cleared this fiscal. Domestically, NMDC is building slurry pipelines and expanding operations in Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh.

The company is also setting up a new international subsidiary at GIFT City in Gujarat to anchor its global ventures. It aims to generate at least 10% of revenue from non-iron ore and overseas operations.

“We’re agnostic about the model,” says Mukherjee. “JVs, equity, acquisitions—everything’s on the table.”

☁️ Sovereign Cloud: India’s New Digital Gold Rush

India is going full steam ahead on digital self-reliance—and sovereign cloud services are at the heart of it. Tech giants like TCS and Google India are leading the race, with offerings that keep all data, processing, and infrastructure entirely within Indian borders.

TCS has launched its fully indigenous SovereignSecure Cloud, while Google is hosting sensitive workloads on its Google Distributed Cloud, featuring Gemini AI—all within India.

Early adopters like Ayushman Bharat, EPFO, Passport Seva, and UIDAI are setting the pace. Individual contracts may be modest at $2–5 million annually, but over the next five years, this could balloon into a multi-billion-dollar market.

“This isn’t about replacing global giants,” says a govt official. “But for ultra-sensitive data, sovereign is the future.”

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