I’m worried about a significant decline (or crash) in commercial real estate valuations, specifically including multifamily, in 2023 and 2024. I feel that the red flags are so clear and all pointing in the same direction that I’d be neglecting my duty to this community to fail to make my stance as clear as possible and to defend that stance in great detail. 
In this article, I’ll walk through my thesis, outlining four primary threats to multifamily valuations, following the summary below: 

Part 1: Cap Rates Are Lower Than Interest Rates 

Part 2: I’m Not Betting On Meaningful Rent Growth In 2023

Part 3: I’m Betting On Interest Rates Rising In 2023

Part 4: High Interest Rates Put Pressure On Valuations And Debt Underwriting

Part 5: News, Anecdotes, And Further Reading

Part 6: Ideas To Protect Wealth And Make Money In This Environment

Please note that real estate is local. My analysis in this article is reflective of the average across the United States, though I do dive into a couple large regions. 
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871 - Multifamily Real Estate Is At Risk Of Crashing — Here’s Why by Scott Trench part 2

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This week’s headlines cover the recent Federal Reserve meeting that ended with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announcing that rates would be higher for longer. Bond yields rose in response, sending mortgage rates back into the 7-8% rage. Meanwhile, Matt assesses whether the pandemic ever recovered from the pandemic by looking at prices, rates, and inventory.
https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/why-the-housing-market-still-has-not-recovered-from-the-pandemic
﻿https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/powell-signals-high-rates-for-longer-due-to-persistent-inflation?srnd=economics-v2 
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1283 - Headlines: Get Ready For Higher Mortgage Rates and Did the Housing Market Ever Recover From the Pandemic? By Matt Myre

If you’ve ever dipped your toes into the world of personal finance, chances are you’ve heard of Dave Ramsey. He’s a household name in the realm of financial advice, known for his no-nonsense approach to getting out of debt and building wealth.
One of the cornerstones of Ramsey’s philosophy is cutting expenses to the bone, often focusing on small, everyday luxuries like coffee and dining out. While slashing these expenses can certainly free up some cash in the short term, I’m here to tell you that it’s not the path to true wealth. 
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1282 - Dave Ramsey Is Wrong—Doing This Won’t Make You Wealthy, But There Is Another Way by Whitney Hutten

Real estate and franchising are two popular investment options offering significant financial returns. Both allow you to earn passive income, enjoy tax benefits, and benefit from regular cash flow. However, a real estate franchise and real estate investing each have pros and cons to consider.
If you are considering investing in the housing market, which business model is best for you? Long-term wealth through property appreciation and regular rental income that real estate offers? Or the opportunity to own a tried-and-tested business model with instant brand recognition?
We’ll discuss whether investing in real estate or starting a franchise is best for your financial goals.
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1281 - Franchise vs Real Estate by Scott Gibson

Real estate investors accounted for 26.1% of low-priced home purchases in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2023, a record-high share, according to a new report from Redfin. Investors bought only 13.6% of mid-priced homes and 15.9% of high-priced homes sold during the same period. 
Redfin defined low-priced homes as falling into the bottom third of local sales prices. The median price investors paid for homes in the fourth quarter was $453,271, above the national median, according to Redfin data. That may be due to an increase in investor home purchases in several California cities, where many expensive homes fall into the low-priced tier relative to local prices. 
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1280 - Investors Are Buying a Record Share of Low-Priced Homes—What Does It Mean for the Market? By Lindsay Frankel

2024 will be a crucial year for the U.S. economy, particularly around what the Fed will do with interest rates. But for the Fed to lower rates, they have to see signs of slowing growth.
What reliable signs are there that the economy is moving in either the recessionary or the growth direction? There has to be a better way to tell than using the Super Bowl Indicator (it doesn’t work, folks). 
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871 - Multifamily Real Estate Is At Risk Of Crashing — Here’s Why by Scott Trench part 2

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