Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas dust off the bazookas scattered around New Zealand politics in this week's Gone By Lunchtime. 
A new Newshub poll has put Judith Collins' National Party on 25.1%, Jacinda Ardern's Labour on 60.9%, and many jaws on the floor. Gerry Brownlee has dismissed it as a "rogue poll".
Annabelle, Ben and Toby impersonate Nate Silver and assess the veracity of the thing, and ask: is this the result of the disarray in National or Ardern's performance through the Covid crisis?
Plus: Was the Iain Lees-Galloway appropriately handled or a dirty politics throwback? Marama Davidson and James Shaw launch the Green campaign. Winston Peters lashes out (again). And is the political marriage of Jami-Lee Ross and Billy Te Kahika Jr a serious prospect or a sideshow?
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Politics roguecast: A bombshell poll for Judith Collins and National

A New Zealand politics podcast hosted by The Spinoff's Toby Manhire with Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas.

News

Politics

Government

Winston Peters and Helen Clark are at loggerheads over New Zealand inching towards "pillar two" status in a pact geared against China. Is cross-party unity on our foreign policy status splintering, and what does "pillar two" really mean? Plus: public sector cuts are suddenly becoming very real. What are the implications for the public services and what is the political risk? How is Melissa Lee navigating the media inferno in a coalition cabinet? And a stirring defence of the history curriculum.
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Aukus ruckus: the scrap over NZ independence in foreign policy

In this special edition of GBL, the former finance minister and soon-to-be vice-chancellor at the University of Otago chats with Toby Manhire from the nosebleeds at the Basin Reserve. On the agenda: tax reforms lost, the Covid legacy, the lure of Dunedin, and which White Fern Robertson most identifies with.
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A conversation with Grant Robertson at the cricket

Despite a deteriorating economic outlook and inconvenient calculations, Nicola Willis and Chris Luxon insist that they can deliver promised tax cuts without new taxes or higher borrowing. Or that’s the intention, at least. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas chew over the fiscal predicament.
Plus: is the new fast-track consenting law, which concentrates immense power in the hands of Chris Bishop, Simeon Brown and Shane Jones, a necessary circuit breaker or a lurch towards Muldoonism? What to make of Winston Peters’ ramblings about Nazism, DNA and co-governance? And while Chumbawamba have urged New Zealand's veteran tub-thumper to cease and desist, is a better template for his contribution one of the Gallagher brothers?
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Numbercrunchawamba

Christopher Luxon can’t catch a break. His prime ministerial house is shabby. His prime ministerial plane is borked. But, ask Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas, how foreseeable was the blowback to his decision to take the $52k accommodation allowance to stay in his own mortgage-free Wellington apartment, how tin-eared was it to declare, repeatedly, that he was entitled to his entitlements, thank you very much, and the swift talkback-driven U-turn?
It came hot on the heels of a whiplash week in parliament, with legislation to bin the Māori Health Authority, roll back smokefree legislation and unban pseudoephedrine. Is the government stretching the use of urgency to its legitimate limit?
Elsewhere in a new edition of the Spinoff politics podcast Gone By Lunchtime: Warner Brothers Discovery has issued a death warrant for Newshub, all of Three’s news operations and a bunch of other local content. What does it mean for democracy, and how was the response from Melissa Lee and the rest? Plus: A word on Grant Robertson, who is leaving politics.
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An untimely case of entitleditis

Fa'anānā Efeso Collins, Green MP and former Auckland councillor, has died after collapsing while taking part in a charity run in central Auckland. He was 49 years old and is survived by his wife, Fia, and two daughters.
The news reached Toby, Ben and Annabelle while a podcast recording was under way. At that point the planned recording halted and we shared reflections on his life and legacy. We have chosen to include the early part of the podcast; to skip past discussions that in the circumstances feel trivial, listen from approximately 22 mins.
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Politics roguecast: A bombshell poll for Judith Collins and National

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