With the results of the Bihar election expected on Tuesday, November 10, major TV networks had released exit polls on Saturday evening predicting that the ruling Janata Dal United–Bharatiya Janata Party alliance is on its way out. One forecast even predicted that the Rashtriya Janata Dal–led opposition alliance could get a two-thirds majority. Others seemed to indicate that it would cross the halfway mark comfortably.

We must add the caveat here that exit polls can be wrong. And it pays to reflect on the divergence we usually end up seeing between pre-poll and post-poll predictions, which will give us a window into the campaigns run by each side and where things stand as we head towards the results. 

Guest: Rahul Verma, a political scientist and a fellow at the centre for policy research in New Delhi.

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