Labor Day has long served as the unofficial kickoff of election season: More voters start to pay attention, political TV ads become inescapable, volunteers knock on doors and pollsters adjust their samples from “registered voters” to “likely voters.”

Now, with Labor Day behind us, here’s the lay of the land just nine short weeks away from Election Day, per POLITICO’s just-updated forecast. The Senate is a toss-up, with the previous forecast leaning Republican. The House is likely going to flip Republican, with a previous forecast of likely Republican. Today, we dive into some of the reasons behind both.

Kara Tabor is an audio producer for POLITICO Audio.
Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.