The spring market is all but dead in 2025. That much is clear. The traditional seasonal surge in home sales that typically arrives in March and April has simply failed to show up. Home sales across Canada remain at multi-decade lows, with April currently trending a shocking 33% below last year—an already sluggish benchmark in itself. The market remains paralyzed under the weight of higher interest rates and high home prices, both of which are now colliding with a wave of mortgage renewals, Trump-imposed tariffs, and an upcoming federal election. These compounding pressures have Canadians turning their attention away from housing, choosing caution and savings over real estate.

And yet, below the surface, the long-term trajectory of the Canadian real estate market is beginning to reveal itself. This episode dives deep into the undercurrents—employment, arrears, monthly payments, national inventory, and new housing construction—to show you where the market is heading next, even if you're not planning a move anytime soon. One revealing example is a recent court-ordered sale we just attended. Despite going through a complex legal foreclosure process, the property still attracted multiple offers and sold over asking—showing us that demand isn't dead, just dormant and highly specific.

But here’s where the tone starts to shift. Monthly mortgage payments have started to trend downward from their 2023 peak of $3,400, and if the Bank of Canada cuts rates to 2% as forecasted by many Banks, we could see payments fall by 30%. Combine that with the fastest wage growth in 25 years and the highest household savings rate in three decades, and you begin to understand why buyer intentions are beginning to creep back into the market —albeit modestly. Renters planning to buy are up from 17% to 19%, and existing homeowners considering a purchase rose from 14% to 16%. With sales at 30+ year lows, these early signs of returning confidence could be the start of the next upswing in the market cycle.

Inventory is also building. Active listings in February rose 13.1% year-over-year, and while we’re still below the long-term average, the trend is undeniable. In Toronto, March condo listings hit a record 5,500 in one month. The sales-to-new-listings ratio has dropped below 30% for the first time since 1991, and condo prices are already down nearly 5% year-over-year. Pre-sale condo activity has collapsed. In Toronto, only 152 new condos sold in the last month—down 95% from the 2022 peak. At this pace, new completions are projected to fall from over 30,000 in 2025 to fewer than 5,000 by 2029.

And yet, even this bleak data paints a roadmap. With fewer completions ahead, the pre-sale condo market may re-emerge as a viable opportunity once the correction has taken place—just not in 2025 and potentially not until 2027 or 2028. For now, returns are still negative, but improving, with cash flow losses narrowing and principal paydown delivering small but positive equity growth. As cycles go, we are in the trough. But every cycle turns, the question is when.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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Ryan Dash PREC

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