Over the Fourth of July weekend, flash floods swept through Kerr County, Texas, killing 104 people—at least 28 of them children (to date), many attending summer camp. In this STRAT episode, retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer dissects the disaster through a strategic lens. From urgent failures in local preparedness to the long-ignored federal guidance that could have saved lives, he examines the chain of policy decisions and institutional apathy that left communities vulnerable. He also explores how California state officials once blocked a national emergency intelligence initiative—CPG-502—that might have prompted better preparedness in Texas. This tragedy, he argues, exposes deeper failures in how states manage risk, federal grants, and public safety priorities. It’s a sobering conversation on how bureaucracy, politics, and negligence converge—with deadly results.

Takeaways:

• Flash floods in Kerr County, Texas, killed 91, including 28 children (to date).
• Camp Mystic suffered devastating losses amid rapidly rising floodwaters.
• The Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in just 45 minutes.
• Local officials lacked basic audible flood warning systems.
• DHS’s CPG-502, a key preparedness guide, was ignored nationwide.
• California DOJ blocked emergency intel programs later copied by Texas.
• Political mismanagement of FEMA funds hampered preparedness investments.
• The failure to act years ago helped set the stage for disaster

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