The 2026 recession is here. You feel it. I feel it. GDP is growing, but the cost of living is rising, affordability is at a multi-decade low, and consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in 70 years. The stock market is ripping, but Americans are struggling daily. Economists will tell you it’s not a recession (at least not yet), but according to my recession indicator…we’re there. 

Last November, I created a new recession indicator. It wasn’t tied to GDP, asset values, or sentiment. It was tied to the average American struggling to get by. As of last week, this recession indicator threw up a strong yellow flag, signaling that we’ve reached a turning point—and the direction we’re going isn’t giving us much hope.

This will affect the housing market and rent prices for real estate investors. I give my full forecast on how this could affect the market, but also share exactly what I’m doing right now to put myself in the best position to weather the storm and, hopefully, pick up discounted deals as they come along. 

Well-situated investors can survive this, but those that are already running their portfolios with little wiggle room might be in for a big surprise. 

In This Episode We Cover

The recession indicator that got triggered just last week (and what it means for the economy)

My new definition of “recession” and why we must rethink what a “recession” even is

How this new recession could hurt the housing market and investors

What I’m doing right now to prepare for the recession and put my portfolio in a strong position

A concerning data point about the affordability of average Americans (this includes renters)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought

On the Market 413 - Real Estate Isn't as Safe From Inflation as You Think

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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